September 6, 2009

Gene Williams
Warchant.com Publisher

After two years of playing in October, Florida State and Miami will renew their annual rivalry on Labor Day night. Neither coaching staff wanted to open with a conference rival, but both schools yielded to pressure from ESPN to start the 2009 season on national television.

The three previous Labor Day matchups, from 2004-06, were defensive struggles with neither team managing to score more than 16 points in a game. In fact, both FSU and Miami averaged just 11 points a game during that three-game stretch. In contrast, in the past two years when the game was played in October the average score was 35-38.

Even though the game is back on Labor Day, the expectation is that the final score will more closely resemble what took place the past two years. While most fans look to the two offenses as the primary reason for a potential shootout, head coach Bobby Bowden says mistakes could be the biggest factor.

"A lot of times high scoring games are because of mistakes that people make," Bowden said. "With mistakes both sides have enough skill that it allows you to break open a ballgame. These two football teams down through the years have had dominant defensive football teams that have kept the score low."

Last year, mistakes were a major problem for both programs. In Florida State's four losses, the offense averaged four turnovers a game. And Miami finished dead last in the ACC in turnover margin in 2008. As a result, it's a good bet that turnovers will play a major role in this year's matchup.

Florida State is also looking to keep its recent edge over Miami. Going back to 2005, the 'Noles have won three-of-four over the Hurricanes and will be looking to make it four-of-five.

Either way, after watching college games on Thursday and Saturday, the Seminole players are chomping at the bit to finally play a game this Monday night.

"It's been Miami week for the past two months or so," senior linebacker and defensive captain Dekoda Watson said. "We've been dealing with two-a-days and things like that but we are finally down to he last couple hours before we play. I feel like the team is ready and we are going to be focused."

Six keys to victory for Florida State:

6. At least draw even on special teams

With the losses of Lou Groza winner Graham Gano and potent kickoff returner Michael Ray Garvin, there are a lot of questions facing Florida State's special teams. The 'Noles must break in a true freshman kicker in Dustin Hopkins. While he has a big leg and has looked good in practice, it's uncertain how he will react when he is on a big stage. Sophomore Sean Powell had 18 punt attempts last season for a 41.1 yard average. Sophomore Bert Reid and true Greg Reid are both capable of making a big punt return. The kickoff returners are largely untested.

Miami on the other hand brings back an experienced and proven place-kicker/punter in Matt Bosher, the top returning kicker in the ACC. Last season, he hit 18-of-20 field goal attempts and averaged 42.3 yards a punt. Seminole fans probably remember Travis Benjamin from last year's game in Miami when the then true freshman almost single-handedly carried the 'Canes by racking up 185 return yards.

Will it happen? Probably not. There are just too many question marks for FSU on special teams. Hopkins could turn out to be a great kicker but that remains to be seen and many of the Seminole returners, while talented, are largely unproven. Meanwhile, Miami brings back the conference's top kicker/punter and Benjamin has already proven himself to be a big weapon in the return game.

5. Rattle Jacory Harris

Last year in Miami, Jacory Harris got in for a couple series but was ineffective completing 3-of-7 for 32 yards with one interception. While I expect Miami's offense to rely more on the run, Harris will have to at least be efficient passing the football to keep FSU's defense honest. If the 'Noles' front seven can pressure the sophomore quarterback it would go a long way to throwing UM's offense out of rhythm.

While there are some questions at the defensive end position with the graduation of Everette Brown and Neefy Moffett, Mickey Andrews and the defensive coaches have had a whole offseason to throw in a few new wrinkles. If those wrinkles are as drastic as rumored, and help FSU to get additional pressure in the backfield, it could create some major headaches for Harris and new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple.

Will it happen? Yes. Harris was pretty inconsistent last season and got rattled pretty quickly. If the Seminole defense throws a few new things at him and can get some early pressure I expect him to be fairly ineffective in this game.

4. Don't give up big plays on defense

One of the biggest concerns for Mickey Andrews through August practices was the tendency of his defense to give up big plays. In each of the first few scrimmages, the offense turned in several scoring plays of over 30 yards. With Miami playing in hostile territory and breaking in a new offensive coordinator, the last thing FSU wants to do is give the visitors from Coral Gables easy scores. The biggest concern comes from the secondary where FSU must break in two new starters, who have struggled at times in practice.

Miami has plenty of big-play ability on offense with several speedy athletes at receiver and running back. In the second half of last year's game, Randy Shannon employed some trickery to produce a couple easy scores. With a whole offseason to prepare for this game you can bet he will have something up his sleeve this year.

Will it happen? Maybe a couple. It's pretty much inevitable that a youthful Seminole defense will have at least one breakdown at some point during the game. FSU can probably survive one or two big offensive plays for Miami, but if that number goes any higher it could become a problem.

3. Slow down Miami's running game

It's very unlikely that Miami's new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple will go into his first game with a pass first mentality. Instead, he will be looking to establish the run with Graig Cooper running behind Jason Fox and the left side of Miami's huge offensive line.

If Miami has some success running the football it will not only make it easier to mix in the pass, it could also wear down FSU's undersized and thin defensive line. If Miami can keep the score close this could be an effective gameplan considering Miami's first and second string offensive line outweighs FSU's first and second defensive line units by an average of over 50 pounds a player. Over a four quarter game that weight disparity could play a factor.

Even though FSU's defensive line is a little short on size and depth, the linebackers could make up for this shortcoming. Chuck Amato's unit is the strength of the defense and with the group averaging over 230 pounds, they are one of biggest linebacker corps in FSU history. As a result, the linebackers should be better suited to stop the run than last year's group.

Will it happen? Cooper will have some success but FSU's defense should be able to slow him down somewhat. The biggest concern may be the size difference between Miami's offensive line and FSU's defensive line. The best way to prevent this from happening would be for the FSU offense to get off to a quick start and put Miami in a hole and take them out of this gameplan. But even if that doesn't happen, FSU's linebackers should be able to at least slow down Cooper and UM's ground attack.

2. Cut down on the mistakes!

In an opening game, mistakes are inevitable on both sides. The key for FSU will be keeping those mistakes to a minimum. In addition to cutting down on turnovers, penalties and missed assignments will be extremely important for both teams.

As noted above, neither team did well in the turnover department last season. If this game is close, turnovers and penalties could very easily make the difference in the outcome.

Will it happen? With Christian Ponder having more experience and with this game being in Doak Campbell Stadium, the 'Noles should have fewer mistakes than Miami. The fact that UM is breaking in two new coordinators could also be an advantage for FSU in an opening game.

1. Take advantage when Miami sells out against the run

Unless something has dramatically changed on Miami's defense in the offseason, it seems likely that FSU will have success running the football. Miami had the worst rush defense in the ACC in 2008 while FSU had one of the top rushing attacks. With FSU's entire starting offensive line back, and being bigger and stronger, you can bet the 'Noles' plan on offense is to stuff the ball down Miami's throat through the ground game.

If FSU can run effectively, which seems likely, the only viable option for Randy Shannon will be to bring his safeties up closer to the line. That should give Christian Ponder more opportunities to test out the vertical passing game the offense worked so hard on in the offseason.

Will it happen? Yes. Ponder and the offense has made significant strides in the passing game in the offseason. I expect him to show Miami and the college football world that he is not only a gritty quarterback that can run, but is also an effective passer.

Score prediction

While the two teams are fairly even on personnel, FSU has the most decided advantage with its experienced offensive line going up against Miami's porous defense against the run. Unless Miami gets ahead early by a couple scores, FSU should be able to run the football effectively behind that offensive line. That will probably force UM to get out of its defensive gameplan which will open up the passing game for Christian Ponder. As a result, there's a good chance for the 'Noles to crack the 30-point barrier.

Unless special teams or turnovers become a major factor, the Seminoles should be able win by a couple scores.

FSU 31, Miami 20.

Gene Williams is the founder and administrator of Warchant.com and writes stories and features covering all of FSU's sports with an emphasis on football and football recruiting. For seven years, Williams hosted a weekly sports radio show in Tallahassee. He currently appears as a weekly guest on 1010 XL Sports Radio in Jacksonville and 1270 The Team in Tallahassee during football season. Williams is also a former ACC correspondent for College Football News (weekly national newspaper), and contributes to The Osceola. Story about Gene Williams & Warchant.com.

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