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September 28, 2007
Butch v. Tommy - Week Five
Everybody was happy last week. Tommy's boys of Troy are happy because they have hardly had to break a sweat yet in winning their games by an average margin of 26 points per game, California is happy because people have finally stopped asking them about the Tennessee game last year, the Pac-10 is happy because they have three teams in or near the Top 10 and, of course, pretty much everybody in the college football world is happy that Notre Dame is 0-4. Tommy is happy because, after watching how Butch operated last week, he decided to follow the Butch Blueprint For Success - a 27-point Powerpoint presentation enhanced by flavored vodka and, preferably, nachos. The results were pleasant for Tommy and with a good week under his belt, he won't get his mug of beer full of despair and we can avoid the premature ejaculation of desperation picks - the prognostication equivalents of Hail Mary tosses - so early in the season.
Tommy: Well, the Fur Ball and the Skirted One both had good weeks thanks to ASU and Oregon coming back to squeak out covers. Unfortunately for Butch, he jumped on the "wrong" boat with Tommy to go with the Huskies. Bad Butchie! Cats and Dogs don't mix. Now it's time for another week with Game of the Century!!!!!! happening in Eugene this weekend. The winner can make their plans to head out to San Diego for the holidays. Huge stakes!
Butch: Yes, yes, Tommy is right, Butch got sucked in by those tawdry Hussies last week - but there will be no such mistake this week.
California at Oregon (-5)
Tommy: HMMMM! The Ducks have covered three of the last four against the Bears, and have beaten the Dirty Hippies both times in Eugene. Plus Cal has only covered three of their last ten on the road. But that Ducky D scares me, as does Dennis Dixon's tendency to melt down in big games. Cal's defense is nothing to write home about either, but it's far better than Bellotti's. I'm going to go with the mild upset and take Tedford's squad. Holiday Bowl '06 (and '07)-41, Holiday Bowl '05-38.
Butch: Good call, Tommy - you're looking at those numbers like 'ol Butchie taught ya. The numbers Butch likes in this game are the ones that say the Fightin' Tedfords are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in conference road openers since their namesake has been at hemp HQ in Berkeley. Conversely, the Nikes are 1-4 SU/ATS under Bellotti in conference home openers in that same time span. Butch takes the Tedfords to cover.
UCLA (-2) at Oregon State
Tommy: Sorry, I'm not buying the Bruins with Scaredy-Cat Ben Olson at the helm. If he thinks he has headaches now, just wait until the league's best pass rush team is bearing down on him. The Bruins can run on you if you have a bad rush defense, but not if you have a good one, and so far, the Beavs have the best in the league. This game will get ugly, and the Dorrell bashers will be out in full force. Time To Avenge The Great Matt Moore-17, Olson is Gutless-6.
Butch: Another good call, Tommy. The Rodentry have the league's second-best defense and both Butch and Tommy are all-too-painfully aware of what happened the last time UCLA went on the road [not to mention the fact that the Bruins are 1-6 as a road favorite under Dorrell]. Butch takes OSU to win and cover.
USC (-21) at Washington
Tommy: Well, the Huskies have slapped Tommy around the last two weeks because they cannot stop a simple off tackle zone run. That doesn't bode well for them against the great Trojans. Pete Carroll is 2-4 against the spread in conference road openers, but this could be his best team yet, and he owns Ty Willingham. No brainer, right? Good Guys-52, The Source Of ALL of Notre Dame's problems-20.
Butch: Normally, double-digit spreads on the road are verboten for Butch to take, but this is USC we are talking about - and the Hussies. If "Ahia State" can beat them by 19, then USC would have to consider it an affront if they beat them by anything less. Oh, did Butch mention that UW has an 0-3 record against Top 10 schools and is 2-6 ATS in Pac-10 home games under Willie? Oops. Butch takes Tommy's boys of Troy to win and cover.
Arizona State (-15) at Stanford
Tommy: Tommy's pretty sure that the Sun Devils won't spot the Trees a million turnovers in the first half like Nike U did. The Cardinal clearly look like a better team, but they could have recruited the entire roster at Palo Alto High, started them, and been better than last year, so that ain't saying much. Bowling Through An Easy Schedule-45, Looking Forward To The ND Game-21.
Butch: Dennis Erickson returns to the Bay Area to re-acquaint himself with his fond memories of the experience and the Trees get in the way. Butch takes ASU to win and cover.
Wazzu at Arizona (-2.5)
Tommy: Butch is going to like this one. Call it a hunch. Tommy just thinks that WSU is generally playing better football than the Wildcats, who are prone to dropping winnable games at home. The Cougs will be a little more aggressive on defense, and the Cats will fall apart in a characteristic cascade of mistakes. Nice Guy Coach-24, Unsportsmanlike Conduct...On The Arizona Bench...15 Yard Penalty...Automatic First Down-20.
Butch: Until Butch sees the WSU defense actually make the other team punt the ball again, he will reserve comment. This game should be close and the line reflects that, so Butch will go with the Cougars to cover.
Alabama at Florida State (-2)
Tommy: Again, Tommy doesn't see the rationale behind installing the Noles as a favorite against anyone decent. Bama has at least been competitive against two good teams in their last two games. Bowden's boys haven't been competitive against anyone good in years. Mr. Personality At Head Coach-24, Yeah, Jimbo Fisher Really Turned Things Around-10.
Butch: Well, Tommy, it's because they know how to cheat at Florida State er, uh...maybe they don't. Cheaters never prosper, but Bama has a sordid past too and normally Butch would take both of them to lose this game, but Butch takes FSU to win and cover and prosper just this once.
Auburn at Florida (-18.5)
Tommy: All of you readers out there do yourselves a favor. Run to your nearest airport, get on a plane to Vegas, and put every dollar you own on the Gators practicing human sacrifice against the Tigers, who are terrible. Defending Champs-42, People's Champs-13.
Butch: Good advice, Tommy - Butch couldn't have put it any better - except to catch a show or two while are there. Butch takes Florida to win and cover.
Notre Dame at Purdue (-21.5)
Tommy: You think it's been bad for ND so far? They finally play a team that has a quarterback. Yikes. Real Indiana Powerhouse-49, That Darn Ty Ruined Our Season-14.
Butch: Bad? No. no, it's been good for Notre Dame this year! Oh, you mean you are talking about people who root for the Leprechauns? They didn't hear you, they're too busy eating all their young. Butch takes the Boilermakers - the team and the drink.
Last Week: 4-1
Last Week: 4-1
Last Week: 2-1
Last Week: 1-2
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