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Published Jan 28, 2022
A program kryptonite? Ham-alytics explores FSU Hoops' history vs. the zone
Tom Lang
Director of Original Content, Warchant.com

There’s no question for this year’s group -- the 2021-22 FSU men’s basketball team -- there is one thing the offense prefers not to see in the half court.

As a fan, you know it. You dread it. And Georgia Tech used it Wednesday night to rattle the Seminoles.

Of all the four-letter words used around the training facility, “zone” may be the dirtiest one of them all this year.

But has breaking down the zone always been this big of a problem for head coach Leonard Hamilton and company? Is it an issue for the program as a whole? Or is it more of a case-by-case basis, depending on each year's given roster?

Ham-alytics has the answer. Additionally, we examine how much FSU’s remaining ACC opponents use zone principles defensively.

Let’s dive in.

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FSU Basketball vs. zone defense: By the numbers

Using Synergy Sports’ data, we could go back as far as the 2003-04 season -- Leonard Hamilton’s second in Tallahassee -- to mine for insights. For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll go back 10 seasons to determine if there is truth to zone defenses being "kryptonite" for Hamilton’s program.

Using Synergy's research of basic efficiency metrics (points per possession), the chart below will show FSU’s report card against the zone. For context, anything higher than 50 in the "National Percentile" column is considered an above-average finish in Division-I basketball.

FSU Basketball vs. zone defense
SeasonNational RankNational Percentile

2021-22

250

30

2020-21

72

72

2019-20

121

66

2018-19

269

25

2017-18

133

63

2016-17

123

66

2015-16

216

39

2014-15

170

53

2013-14

169

52

2012-13

83

60

Average Finish

161

52.6

There you have it -- in seven of the past 10 seasons, Florida State has actually been an above-average team at breaking down zone defenses. And in four of the five seasons coming into 2021-22, the Seminoles were actually above-average.

Has the program been elite at any point? No, and there have been a few down seasons, including thus far in 2021-22. But by definition, the program has been average to slightly above-average at efficiently scoring against zone.

One final thing to keep in mind: No matter the season, an offense will see man principles exponentially more frequently than zone principles when executing in the half court.

The rest of the slate: Who uses zone?

Now that we've defined what the program is against zone, let's focus on what comes next. Judging by usage rate through the games of Jan. 27, which of Florida State's remaining opponents uses zone defense and how much do they use it?

This chart will list the remaining competition in chronological order, from next opponent through the end of the regular season.

Zone Defense Usage, FSU's remaining opponents
*Two games against this opoonent
OpponentZone Usage (Percent of possessions)

Virginia Tech

0.2%

Clemson*

2.5%

Wake Forest

0.9%

Pittsburgh

15.5%

North Carolina

0.2%

Duke

4.4%

Boston College

3.3%

Virginia

0.0%

Notre Dame

12.2%

North Carolina State

1.5%

While it's true -- and reassuring -- that Pitt and Notre Dame are the only two remaining opponents to break out the zone at a significant rate, it's hard not to look at Duke's number and pause.

Why? Duke has hardly played zone all year, but the Blue Devils desperately turned to that approach in the second half of their Jan. 18 meeting with the 'Noles. It could be argued that defensive switch is what brought Mike Krzyzewski and crew back to life that night. Would it be a stretch to think Duke, which implements zone less than five out of every 100 possessions, uses zone defense early in the teams' rematch in Durham?

And if they do, will other opponents try to cobble together a game plan specifically for FSU? (Note: Just because they do, that doesn't necessarily mean they'd be good at running it.)

Whatever the case, when the 'Noles have the ball and you spot a zone look the rest of this season, Ham-alytics HQ hopes other four-letter words don't follow.

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