Atlanta Showdown Part I: An early preview of FSU-Alabama
In what might end up being the biggest, most-hyped season opener in college football history, Florida State and Alabama will kick off the 2017 campaign on Sept. 2 in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
How big is this game? There's a chance it could be the first season-opening meeting of the nation's No. 1- and No. 2-ranked teams in the AP Top 25.
How big is this game? It's so big that the staffs of Warchant.com and BamaInsider.com joined forces to create a week's worth of stories and videos previewing the game in mid-June -- nearly two months before the start of preseason practice.
With the help of ESPN-Tallahassee's Jeff Cameron, who moderates the video discussions, we'll break down all of the key matchups for this showdown and also take a closer look at head coaches Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban. The stories and videos will run for seven consecutive days, beginning today with an overview piece by Warchant's Gene Williams and BamaInsider's Kyle Henderson.
(Note: Be sure to watch the video below, and also the accompanying text below that.)
Topic No. 1: Keys to Victory
What must Florida State do to be successful against Alabama?
First, the passing game will need to click, and that means doing a better job of protecting quarterback Deondre Francois. Teams that have done well against Alabama have thrown the ball effectively. In the three games where the Tide defense struggled in 2016 (Ole Miss, Arkansas and Clemson), each starting quarterback threw for 400 or more yards. In the other 12 games when Alabama and the defense dominated, opposing offenses averaged just 132 passing yards a game. The offensive line is a big question for FSU, and it must give Francois time to find his receivers.
Also, Florida State must avoid giving up easy scores. Alabama thrives on scoring in unconventional ways. The Tide scored an amazing 11 defensive touchdowns and 15 overall non-offensive touchdowns in 2016. This game is too evenly matched for the Seminoles to give up an easy defensive or special-teams score.
What must Alabama do to be successful against Florida State?
Establish the run. Whether it’s 6-foot-2, 232-pound Bo Scarbrough, 5-11, 216-pound Damien Harris, or even true freshman 6-2, 227-pound Najee Harris, Alabama needs to control the tempo of the game, and it starts with sustaining drives and keeping the Florida State defense on the field. During the 2016 season, Alabama averaged 245 rushing yards per game, which ranked 12th in the nation. Alabama returns Harris, who ran for 1,037 yards; Scarbrough, who ran for 812-yards; and Joshua Jacobs, who ran for 567. That is 2,416 yards and 17 touchdowns returning for the 2017 season. If Alabama wins the time of possession in this game, the Tide likely leave Atlanta 1-0 on the season.
Topic No. 2: Areas of Concern
What could most adversely impact FSU’s chances in this game?
If the offensive line gets consistently manhandled. Without at least some protection for Francois, the passing game will be severely limited, and FSU will be in big trouble. If Alabama is able to consistently get pressure in the backfield, it will increase the chances of FSU turnovers and big plays by the Tide defense.
What could most adversely impact Alabama’s chances in this game?
Turnovers and the kicking game. In a game of this magnitude, especially on prime time and on opening weekend, the juices are going to be flowing. During the 2016 season, Alabama ranked fifth in the nation for turnovers gained. Alabama’s defense recovered 13 fumbles and forced 16 interceptions, and the Tide have shown the ability to turn takeaways into touchdowns. That trend needs to continue. The kicking game is a bit of a concern as Alabama was 3-for-6 on field goals during the spring game and will enter the summer with a kicking battle between Andy Papanastos and Joseph Bulovas. Papanastos missed both of his attempts during the spring game, and Bulovas has yet to see a college football game since he’s a true freshman.
Topic No. 3: Significance of the Game
How important is this opener to FSU?
Any time you are play in what likely will be a top-two or top-three matchup, it’s an important game. However, a loss in the opener, especially a close one, probably wouldn't derail FSU’s goals for 2017. If the ‘Noles can roll through the other 11 regular-season games and win the conference title, chances are extremely high that they’ll be in the playoffs either way. However, a setback against Alabama will leave little wiggle room, as a second loss might be difficult to overcome in the eyes of the Playoff Committee.
How important is this opener to Alabama?
Under head coach Nick Saban, Alabama is 10-0 in season openers. With the entire college football world watching these two storied programs open the season in Atlanta's brand-new stadium, it’s another opportunity for Saban to flex his muscle as the top coach in the sport. Uncommitted five-star recruits will be dialed into this game, and you have to think Saban will want to send a message that the Alabama dynasty is far from being done. If the Tide are able to beat a high-caliber team such as Florida State in the opener, the win could give them the momentum they need to cruise through a very favorable schedule.
Coming Tuesday: A closer look at Alabama's passing attack, and FSU's ability to stop it.
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