With about five weeks remaining in the regular season, the staff at Baseball America still believes the Florida State Seminoles have a legitimate shot at making the NCAA Tournament.
But it won't be easy. And after what has been a brutal 20-game stretch, the Seminoles certainly have their work cut out for them.
After getting off to a 12-0 start to the season, FSU has gone 7-13 over the last month. The 'Noles are 19-13 and 7-8 in ACC play.
Teddy Cahill, who is Baseball America's national writer, said that the Seminoles were one of the "last four in" to the tournament field when the publication made its most recent projections on Wednesday.
"Obviously, it's dicey right now," Cahill said. "At this stage, we still are doing a lot of projecting. There's a clear path [for the Seminoles to make it]. And for this projection, we projected that they would take the path. But obviously, there are chances that path doesn't get taken."
After losing on Tuesday to rival Florida, the Seminoles' RPI now stands at No. 98 nationally. While that certainly will need to improve for FSU to make the field of 64, Cahill said the good news is that Mike Martin's club still has a slew of opportunities to pick up quality wins.
They have ACC series remaining against Clemson, Virginia, Wake Forest, Pitt and Louisville. If the Seminoles can win more than half of those games, combined with their current 7-8 ACC mark, they will at least be in the conversation.
Beating the top-tier teams would be preferable, but Cahill said that's not even the biggest issue right now.
"Ultimately, they just need ACC wins," he said. "It's not so much what these teams are ranked. The biggest issue for them right now is they are under .500 in the conference. And last year, the selection committee made a big deal about wanting teams to be at least .500 in their leagues. So they need ACC wins, and they need several of them.
"The ACC is not ... this is not the strongest it's ever been. So I don't even know if going 15-15 is going to be looked upon that favorably. They need to find a way to get over .500 in the ACC. And whether that comes with a bunch of wins against Wake and Pitt and then they piece together the rest of it, I don't think that that's a significant problem. Obviously, the RPI needs to improve. But winning games does that for you, too."
Reaching the NCAA Tournament is important every year, but particularly so this season for the Seminoles, who are playing their final campaign under legendary head coach Mike Martin.
FSU has never failed to make the postseason -- or win 40 games -- in Martin's first 39 seasons as head coach. And since this is his final year, there has been hope among FSU fans that if the Seminoles are on the bubble, the NCAA selection committee will give Martin a sentimental nod.
Cahill said he wouldn't count on it. He believes the 'Noles will have to earn their way in.
"I think there was a time when maybe people thought that the baseball selection committee showed some favoritism to various things," he said. "But I think that time is over. I think there is far too much attention paid to what the selection committee does these days for them to do stuff like that.
"So I don't think that would happen -- at least overtly. But with all selection committees, I think there are people who believe that brand names have more power than some other schools. So maybe that comes into play for a Florida State. But if anything, I think it would be more that than, 'Let's get Mike Martin into the field one more time.'"
In the latest projection, Baseball America has FSU as a No. 3 seed in the Starkville, Miss., Regional. But the Seminoles undoubtedly will have to play much better than they have in recent weeks for that pick to come to fruition.
To get to 16 or 17 ACC wins, he said, they'll almost certainly have to take one of their three remaining high-profile series -- against Clemson this weekend, Virginia next weekend or Louisville at the end of the season.
"That will answer the question of what's their best series win," Cahill said. "Ultimately, that's going to need to happen. But I think the biggest thing that needs to happen is they need more ACC wins."
Senior writer Corey Clark contributed to this report.
------------
Discuss this story with other FSU fans on our Seminole Baseball Message Board.
