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Published Oct 7, 2024
By the Numbers: How does FSU stack up statistically at 2024 halfway point?
Curt Weiler  •  TheOsceola
Senior Writer
Twitter
@CurtMWeiler

Safe to say the first half of the 2024 Florida State football season didn't go according to anyone's plans.

A season that began with the Seminoles ranked in the top 10 now sees them at 1-5 with a third straight bowl bid almost certainly lost.

While we knew FSU had a lot to replace off its 13-1 ACC Championship squad from last season, we thought there were enough pieces around that the Seminoles could maintain at least some of their momentum.

Instead, the offense has massively struggled while the defense hasn't been consistent enough after a slow start to the season.

At the halfway point of the regular season, here's a look at how FSU measures up nationally in a bunch of statistical categories.

Offense (Rank out of 134 FBS teams)

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Points per game: 14.8 (128th)

Yards per play: 4.52 (126th)

Yards per rush: 2.16 (133rd)

Yards per pass attempt: 6.4 (110th)

First downs per game: 14.7 (125th)

Third down conversion percentage: 28.92% (126th)

Fourth down conversion percentage: 64.71% (40th)

Red zone conversion percentage: 83.33% (80th)

Red zone touchdown percentage: 58.33% (86th)

Sacks allowed per game: 2.33 (91st)

Plays gaining 10-plus yards: 71 (73rd)

Time of possession: 26:29 (116th)

Analysis

There isn't much spinning of these stats. Through six games this season, FSU's offense is making a compelling case for the worst Power Four offense, maybe even worst FBS offense.

The Seminoles are the worst P4 team in yards per play and yards per rush. Only Kent State, which has lost all five of its games this season by a combined margin of 257-74, is saving FSU from being dead last in FBS in yards per rush.

In scoring offense, FSU is only better than UCLA and Houston among P4 teams and is averaging nearly 10 points less than every other ACC team -- Stanford is closest at 23.0 points per game.

Just about the only thing FSU does well, convert on fourth downs, is set up by underperformance on the previous three downs. FSU has converted 11 fourth downs in 17 attempts this season, already the most by an FSU team since the 2020 team went 15 for 28.

The numbers confirm what our eyes have told us about this FSU offense. It doesn't do anything particularly well.

A few youth-movement shifts and the change to bring in backup quarterback Brock Glenn sparked a bit of confidence going forward in the offense. However, it won't be easy to find more success against what is expected to be the harder half of FSU's 2024 schedule.

Defense

Points per game allowed: 25.3 (81st)

Yards per play allowed: 5.84 (95th)

Yards per rush allowed: 4.41 (89th)

Yards per pass attempt allowed: 8.0 (106th)

First downs per game allowed: 21.5 (105th)

Third down conversion percentage allowed: 45.98% (118th)

Fourth down conversion percentage allowed: 50% (50th)

Red zone conversion percentage allowed: 75% (25th)

Red zone touchdown percentage allowed: 45.43% (27th)

Sacks per game: 2.83 (18th)

Plays gaining 10-plus yards allowed: 95 (129th)

Analysis

The defensive numbers aren't quite the horror show that the offensive stats are. And yet, it's hard to find too much to like about what FSU's defense has done so far this season.

As you probably suspected, the red zone numbers are good: 11 opposing trips to the red zone with no touchdowns in the Cal and Clemson games will do that.

And, yes, FSU is in the top 20 nationally in sacks, largely buoyed by its seven sacks in the Cal game. But getting teams behind the chains only matters if you can get those offenses off the field.

On that front, FSU's third-down defense has been quite bad -- it is allowing a higher percentage than any other ACC team -- and the Seminoles have allowed more plays of 10+ yards than all but one other P4 team.

Considering FSU has faced just two teams in the top 35 nationally in points per game this season, FSU's scoring defense numbers are far too low.

There's just no synergy with the defense. While there's likely NFL talent all across FSU's defense, the whole isn't close to as good as the sum of its parts right now.

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Special Teams

Field goal percentage: 100% (1st)

Yards per punt: 49.26 (3rd)

Yards per punt return: -2.0 (133rd)

Yards per kick return: 18.43 (86th)

Yards per punt return allowed: 6.0 (47th)

Yards per kick return allowed: 20.0 (80th)

Analysis

Ryan Fitzgerald and Alex Mastromanno continue to make compelling cases for being FSU's best players this season.

FSU is one of 18 FBS teams that hasn't missed a field goal so far this season. Fitzgerald is a perfect 6 for 6 and three of those have come from 50+ yards.

Mastromanno's average punt distance of 49.26 yards leads all eligible FBS punters. And he's had plenty of opportunities to show off that leg. His 31 punts are tied for ninth-most nationally so far this season.

In the return game, FSU has struggled to generate much of anything. The team has tried out a few punt returner options and not yet found one that has been able to carry over what Keon Coleman did last season. FSU's -8 punt return yards on four returns ranks worst nationally in average yards per return.

FSU's lack of explosiveness at kick returner makes a compelling case for just taking the touchback every drive and starting each series at the 25-yard line because, on average, FSU's returners haven't done that so far this season.

Miscellaneous

Turnover margin: -6 (122nd) -3 from the next worst ACC team, only three takeaways will do that

Penalties per game: 6.3 (70th)

Penalty yardage per game: 54.8 (54.8)

Analysis

FSU's inability to create takeaways has played a large role in its 1-5 record so far this season. The Seminoles have just three forced turnovers in six games and only two of those have come on defense with the third coming on special teams.

While there's an inherent luck factor that goes into turnovers, I think Mike Norvell would tell you that FSU's defense hasn't done a good enough job creating those opportunities and taking advantage of them when they're presented.

FSU's -6 turnover margin is three worse than the rest of the ACC and better than only Purdue, TCU and Auburn among P4 teams.

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