Clark: Can FSU men's basketball turn things around this season?
It's been a while since we've seen a Florida State men's basketball team look like this.
It's not just the 7-5 record (1-2 in the ACC) that has fans rightly worried that the Seminoles' NCAA Tournament streak is destined to come to an end in 2022. It's that three of those losses, all on the road, were blowouts. Two weren't even competitive in the second half, including Tuesday night's beatdown to a Wake Forest team that hasn't beaten anyone down since Chris Paul was running the point.
Leonard Hamilton has obviously earned the benefit of the doubt. The Florida State head coach just strung together the best five-year stretch in program history. And was robbed of a real chance of a Final Four when the 2020 NCAA Tournament was canceled due to COVID-19.
So, it's not like we should just assume this is what the Seminoles will be this year. His teams routinely improve as the season goes on, they find their stride, and in March are typically one of the 16 teams left standing on the second weekend of the tournament.
But that doesn't mean you're not right in worrying that this team might just not have what it takes to extend that postseason streak.
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First and foremost, it just has to shoot better. Period.
Tuesday night was an abomination to the basketball gods. Florida State was 15 of 62 from the field -- 15 of 62! And it's not like Wake Forest is some defensive juggernaut. The Demon Deacons allowed 92 points to the Miami Hurricanes in their previous game.
Against FSU, they allowed 38 less.
The Seminoles also don't have a consistent rim protector because their big guys -- all those 7-footers -- just aren't good enough yet. And Tanor Ngom, the only veteran of that group, hasn't been healthy all season.
And the point guard play has, let's just say, been erratic all year. RayQuan Evans and Jalen Warley have been struggling mightily to make any real impact in most of these games. The two average 10.3 points combined on 40 percent shooting from the floor. They also have a combined 43 assists and 30 turnovers. That's not close to the type of production FSU needs from that position. That has to improve. Somehow. Some way.
But even still, there is enough talent on the wings -- Anthony Polite, Cam'Ron Fletcher, Caleb Mills, Matthew Cleveland, Malik Osborne (when he's not having to play center) -- that the FSU offense shouldn't have many nights like the one they just endured in Winston-Salem.
It just hasn't come together. Not yet anyway.
And I think that's where the hope has to be when it comes to this team. That quintet of wings is a talented group.
Osborne has had some sensational games this season already, and he has been the best player on the team through 12 games. Mills can be an elite scorer. You've seen wonderous flashes from both Fletcher and Cleveland. And we just have to assume that Polite, who has been an exceptional shooter the last few years, will regain his form. He won't continue to shoot under 30 percent from 3-point range.
But nothing has truly clicked yet.
Hamilton is still trying to figure out his rotations -- still trying to learn who he can depend on in big moments, who needs to be on the bench more and who needs to be on the bench less.
It's just such a young team. An inexperienced team.
Yes, Evans and Polite and Osborne and Wyatt Wilkes are all fifth-year seniors. But none have ever been primary options for the Seminoles before. How could they be? With guys like M.J. Walker, Scottie Barnes, RaiQuan Gray, Trent Forrest, Patrick Williams and Devin Vassell being on the same roster?
So, this is a new situation. And other than Osborne, they haven't adjusted well to it so far.
And then there's a guy like Fletcher.
This dude might have the most talent on the team. He might be a future NBA player. And against N.C. State, there were times when he was the best player on the floor. He finished that game with 14 points and three steals, including the one that sealed the game in the final 10 seconds.
On Tuesday, though, he managed five points (on 2-of-7 shooting from the floor) and played just 12 minutes.
Cleveland, too, has shown he is an exceptional talent. One that will likely be in the league at some point in his future. But as much as I like his aggression on offense, he's averaging just one assist per game and has hit just one 3-pointer all season.
This is what comes with inexperience though.
Cleveland and Fletcher and Warley and John Butler are all having to learn the college game on the fly. Mills, who is the best scorer on the team but has also struggled to find his shooting form, is learning how to play with a brand-new team.
Hamilton talked before the N.C. State game about how much patience he's having to show this year. Not just because his team had a two-week COVID break, during a time where it definitely could have used some games and practices, but because it is a team full of inexperience.
And other than Osborne, none of the experienced guys are playing well.
That's a rough combination.
The good news is this: Florida State can't continue to shoot this poorly. It just can't.
I promise you fine folks, these guys CAN hit jump shots. I've seen it with my own eyes.
So have you!
Polite shot 44 percent from 3-point range a season ago.
This year he's at 27 percent. That has to change. It will change.
Caleb Mills probably won't have another night like Tuesday, where he missed 10 shots in a row. He's too talented, too gifted. And hey, he hit 2 of his last 3 against the Demon Deacons ... so maybe now he's hot!
Wyatt Wilkes will not end up being a 30-minute-a-game player for this team. He knows that. I know that. You know that. We all know that. But he CAN be a contributor. He can be a guy who knocks down open jump shots. That's why he's out there.
On Tuesday night, he hit 2 of 5 from 3-point range. That brings his season totals to 10 makes in 34 attempts (a 29.8 percentage).
He shot 38.1 percent from 3-point range a season ago.
In all, FSU is shooting 33.3 percent from long range.
In their two ACC losses, to Syracuse and Wake Forest, they combined to make 8 of 55 from 3-point range. Eight makes. And 47 misses! That's incredible. You could try to bank them all in and you'd make more than 8 of 55.
If FSU had just shot its average against Syracuse, it would have won by double-digits. And if it had done the same against Wake Forest, it at least would have been a game.
Hamilton has said repeatedly he thinks this could be the best shooting team of his tenure. Because, genuinely, there are seven guys -- Osborne, Fletcher, Mills, Polite. Cleveland, Butler and Wilkes -- who he expects can knock down open 3s at a regular clip.
It's obvious, with the lack of rim protection, this isn't going to be one of Hamilton's best defensive teams. It won't be one of his best rebounding teams either.
But if it's going to have any chance of getting to the NCAA Tournament, it will absolutely have to be one of his best shooting teams. So far, that hasn't materialized.
It's not too late to turn it around.
Again, we're only 12 games in and FSU is coming off a 16-day pause in which it didn't play any games and it barely got to practice. There is still vast room for improvement.
This team IS talented. It has some dudes. But six of the rotation players are in their first seasons with the Seminoles. So, there are going to be some growing pains.
At some point, though, if this team is going to reach its potential and actually get back to the postseason, those guys are actually going to have to grow up. Or this will officially turn into a "rebuilding year" and FSU will be sitting at home in March for the first time in a while.
Contact senior writer Corey Clark at corey@warchant.com and follow @Corey_Clark on Twitter.
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