Saturday night was the first time a Florida State football team had ever lost to an FCS school. We're all well aware of that.
So much so that it probably didn't need to be the lead sentence of this column. But what are you going to do? It's already been written. I can't turn back now.
What I wanted to know when I set out to do a little research on FBS schools losing to FCS programs is if one of these upset losses meant you could write off the rest of the season for that school. And to the larger point, that particular coaching staff.
So, I did some digging.
It wasn't a fun exercise, or one that I could have ever predicted I would need to do after how well the Seminoles played in the fourth quarter against Notre Dame. But here we are.
And I'm here to add some context, perspective, and maybe even a little bit of hope (?) to what we all witnessed on Saturday night.
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That's when Florida State became the 152nd FBS team to lose to an FCS team in the last 20 years, dating back to the start of the 2001 season.
The Seminoles were actually the eighth FBS team this year alone to suffer that fate. And the third team from a Power 5 conference — No. 20 Washington was knocked off, 13-7, by Montana; and Vanderbilt was defeated, 23-3, by East Tennessee State in its opener.
Boy, I tell you what, any time you're feeling bad about your team, Vanderbilt comes along and makes you realize how bad it could really be. Just an awful program for like a hundred years now.
Anyway, back to Florida State.
For our purposes, when looking back at the last 20 years, I'm going to stick to teams that are currently in the Power 5. I don't think Ohio losing to Northeastern or Ball State losing to Northern Iowa is any sort of indicator on what losses like this can mean to a school like Florida State.
So, I'm just sticking with the Power 5.
Since 2001, there have been 40 teams from the big-boy conferences to lose to an FCS squad.
Here's a list of the teams who have suffered that dubious distinction:
TCU, Rutgers (2x), Mississippi State, Stanford, Indiana, Colorado, Northwestern, Michigan, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Duke (3x), Minnesota (3x), Pitt, Florida, Kansas State, Oregon State (2x), South Carolina, Washington State (2x), Iowa State (4x), Virginia (2x), Iowa, Baylor, Kansas (3x), Georgia Tech, Washington, Vanderbilt and now FSU.
Now here's an ugly stat that you probably could have predicted: Of the 37 Power 5 teams (not counting the three from this year) who lost to an FCS squad since 2001, 28 of them went on to have a losing record that season.
After all, if you're losing to a school from a lower division, chances are you're going to lose to a good bit to the ones who give out 85 scholarships, too.
And as you can imagine, many of those programs stayed in the doldrums for years to come.
But not all.
And that's where I'll try to shine a ray of light on the darkness of this week.
A loss to an FCS school is always brutal, but it's not always a season-defining defeat. There are enough examples over the last 20 years to illustrate that one bad Saturday does not always mean a bad football team.
In 2010, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison. The Hokies still went on to win 11 games and the ACC Championship over Florida State.
In 2007, Michigan (you might remember this one) lost to Appalachian State in its season opener. The Wolverines went on to win nine games and beat Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators in a bowl that same year.
In 2016, there were three different teams — Northwestern, Iowa and Washington State — who lost to FCS schools and still wound up with winning records.
Washington State actually accomplished that feat two years in a row, which seems almost impossible. But the Cougars did it!
So, all is not necessarily lost for the Seminoles in 2021.
You know, other than any goodwill Mike Norvell and his staff had built up through the offseason and the season-opening overtime loss to Notre Dame.
But goodwill doesn't win football games. Players, good coaching and execution (I see you, Brian Kelly!) do win football games.
And with that in mind, I want to point to one of the schools that recently lost to an FCS team: Iowa State.
The Cyclones have actually done it four times since 2001, the most of any school in the country. Congrats, guys! The last one came in 2016, which just so happened to be Matt Campbell's first year as head coach.
The Cyclones started off the year by losing to Northern Iowa, 25-20. They then lost 42-3 to Iowa and 42-20 to TCU, and I'm quite sure all those dozens of Iowa State football fans at the time were thinking, "Here we go again. This dude is just like all the rest. When does wrestling season start?"
Then Iowa State beat San Jose State 44-10, lost to No. 13 Baylor 45-42 and lost at Oklahoma State 38-31. They also lost a five-point game to Kansas State, a 10-point game to No. 12 Oklahoma, beat Kansas and beat Texas Tech 66-10.
The record at the end of the season was still 3-9. Clearly not a great year, not even by Iowa State's standards, but it was obvious the team got better as the season wore on. There was genuine improvement and real reason for optimism with how the Cyclones closed the year.
They didn't let the gross loss to Northern Iowa define them. Campbell certainly didn't.
The next year, the Cyclones went 8-5. And now, almost inexplicably, they've become a legitimate Top 20 program the last few years with him at the helm.
I have no idea if Norvell can do the same thing. But I do know it's easier to win in Tallahassee than it is in Ames. And that it's not out of the realm of possibility that he turns this season, and this program, around in the next couple of years.
Judging from those stats I gave you earlier, of course, the odds aren’t exactly in his favor. But odds have been beaten before. Trends have been bucked.
This season isn't over. And Norvell's tenure isn't over.
There is more than enough data out there to prove that teams can bounce back from horrific losses, and coaches can un-poison the wells that come with defeats to the likes of Jacksonville State.
It will take some time, obviously.
Even if FSU wins this weekend at Wake Forest, it isn't going to erase the horror of Saturday night.
Norvell is going to need a whole lot more than one W. But, man, it sure would be a good place to start.
Because then at least you might have some hope — even just a little — that his team, his program, won't be defined by what happened against Jacksonville State.
Contact senior writer Corey Clark at corey@warchant.com and follow @Corey_Clark on Twitter.
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Talk about this story with other Florida State football fans in the Tribal Council