We all knew the Duke loss was a gut punch.
We didn't expect it to be a knockout punch.
If Florida State can't right its ship here soon, starting tonight at home vs. Clemson (7 p.m., ESPNU), then that will be a fourth straight loss for the Seminoles, who were ranked as high as No. 9 in the country just a few weeks ago.
And then we have to legitimately start wondering if this team will get back to the NCAA Tournament.
That's how big this one is tonight. Not just to pick up the second ACC win of the season, but to instill some much-needed confidence in a team that has clearly lost some over the last week.
It's one thing to lose at Virginia and at home to Duke on a buzzer-beater. Those teams are great. National-championship caliber. But to lose at Pitt because you can't defend without fouling? And you can't make a 3?
Then to lose at Boston College despite having a 10-point halftime lead? Because you can't make a shot in the second half and you can't even pretend to guard the other team's best player? And you let another player hit five straight 3s? Four of which were just wide open?
This isn't what good teams do.
Yes. Some of it is bad luck. The Bowman kid for Boston College couldn't miss in the first half, even when he was tightly guarded. And the Eagles shoot just 30 percent from 3 on the season ... but against FSU, of course, they shot over 60 percent. Ain't that just always the way?
But here's the reality: The Florida State guards are just not very good right now. They're not playing at nearly a high enough level to win in this league.
In back-to-back games, against not-great teams, FSU gave up 30 points to one guard and 37 to another.
Meanwhile, FSU's starting guards on Sunday against B.C. made 10 of 28 shots. Until P.J. Savoy hit a meaningless 3 with two seconds left, he and M.J. Walker -- the two "shooters" on this team -- were a combined 3 of 14 from 3.
Walker is now 3 of 20 from beyond the arc in ACC play. Savoy is 8 of 28. That's a cool 11 of 48 (23 percent) from the guys you desperately need to make shots.
I know it's not fair to pin a 1-4 start in conference play on two players -- especially when Trent Forrest and Terance Mann have been banged up and Phil Cofer didn't play in the last one -- but if these two guys can't start knocking down shots at a much higher clip, then we're going to see a lot more games like Pitt and B.C.
Or maybe other players need to be on the court. I personally would like to see David Nichols get more time on the court with Trent Forrest, because I think Nichols has been the team's most consistent shooter for a while now. But at the end of the day, the Seminoles are going to need Walker and Savoy to shoot their way out of this slump.
In 2019, you have to be able to make 3s to win games. You just have to.
Because guess what? The other team will.
And if you continually get outscored at the 3-point line -- Florida State has been outscored by 33 points from there in the last three games -- it can make things really difficult.
Now, to be sure, there are other issues with this team right now: Way too many fouls, not enough scoring in transition, giving up back-breaking offensive rebounds.
But the biggest thing is you have to make shots. And to do that, you have to believe you are going to make shots.
That's where we get back to confidence. And that's why this game tonight, against a very capable Clemson team that is also desperate for a win, is so vital for the Seminoles.
They have to start being themselves again. They have to somehow, someway, find the magic that they played with at the beginning of the season. And they need to find it soon. Otherwise, in this league, things can spiral out of control in a hurry.
Florida State is good enough, even with its nagging injuries, to go on a run in ACC play and get into the NCAA Tournament as a relatively high seed. I still believe that.
I thought the first 16 minutes of the game against Boston College showcased what this team can still be. Even without Cofer.
The last 20 minutes proved just how far this team has left to go.
Florida State was one lost rebound away from beating Duke.
Eight days later, Boston College outscored the Seminoles by 23 points through the first 13 minutes of the second half. And now they're on a three-game losing streak.
If it gets snapped tonight, then FSU starts to feel good about itself again. If shots start falling, then this team can go on a nice run.
If not?
Well, it could be a long couple of months.
Either way, this is going to be a critical 40 minutes for the 2018-2019 Florida State basketball team.
Contact senior write Corey Clark at corey@warchant.com and follow @Corey_Clark on Twitter.
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