Clark: The 'R' in college baseball's RPI must stand for ridiculous
This last week has been a troubling one for ACC baseball. And one that many of the conference coaches feared might happen when the league's athletic directors voted to go to a shortened season in 2021.
The RPI (Ratings Percentage Index), which is used to help determine postseason seedings and host sites, is crushing ACC teams at the moment. To the point that Florida State just dropped 11 spots in the most recent rankings. Despite winning a weekend series against Clemson.
Eleven spots! What would the Seminoles have dropped if they had actually lost on Sunday? 30 spots? 100? What kind of ratings system drops one team 11 spots for winning a game on Sunday, while raising the team that lost -- Clemson -- two spots on the same day.
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You read that right, by the way.
Florida State dropped 11 spots to No. 48 in the country after beating Clemson, and the Tigers actually rose up two spots and are now at No. 49 in the nation
Why even play the games if the winner and loser don't actually matter?
Let's call it the Ridiculous Percentage Index at this point.
Just for perspective, FSU is currently No. 12 in the country in the latest Baseball America poll and No. 16 in D1 Baseball's rankings.
And the problem -- a very, very big one for the Seminoles -- is that the NCAA Selection Committee apparently is using RPI as its primary ranking tool when it comes to seeding in the postseason.
That was made evident last week when the 20 potential regional hosts were announced, and the committee just seemed to go down the RPI list and make their choices -- only excluding teams with losing conference records or limited facilities.
The ACC had two potential hosts: Notre Dame and Pitt. The SEC had eight.
Guess what the SEC had this year that the ACC didn't? Fifty-six baseball games, as opposed to 50. The SEC teams had four non-conference series this year, because their ADs allowed it.
The ACC only allowed its member schools to play two non-conference series. Which meant six less non-conference games for FSU and everyone else in the league, which meant six less games to try to stack up wins against solid RPI-caliber opponents.
Florida State originally had Maryland and Southern Miss on the schedule, which no doubt would have helped the Seminoles at this point of the year. But those went away with the COVID-19 restrictions, as did FSU's ability to play any road non-conference games outside of Gainesville -- away games are another way to try to manipulate the RPI formula.
Instead, FSU is now the one getting manipulated.
Florida State is 28-19 overall and 19-14 in the ACC. The Seminoles have had some struggles this year, to be sure, but they've also now won four consecutive conference series, including one over regular-season champion Notre Dame. On the road.
The Seminoles, according to the publications that follow the sport the closest, should be right in the thick of the conversation for being a No. 1 seed in a regional. Instead, the RPI seems to think FSU might not even deserve get into the tournament.
Louisville, also has a gripe. The Cardinals are No. 19 in the Baseball America poll and 55th (!!!) in the RPI.
The Seminoles are ninth in the RPI out of conference teams, and the Cardinals are 11th.
And get this: Of the eight schools in front of FSU (Notre Dame is No. 13, Miami is No. 21, N.C. State is No. 26, Pitt No. 41, Duke No. 43, Georgia Tech No. 44, North Carolina No. 45 and UVA at No. 47), FSU went 5-1 against those teams in head-to-head series, including a sweep at Miami.
So, it's really puzzling why the Seminoles have now fallen back so far. Despite winning another series against a conference foe.
I asked Mike Martin Jr. about it on Monday, and he was at a loss.
He said it seemed to hurt the 'Noles that Pitt got beat this weekend after sweeping FSU earlier in the year.
"But then Miami won two of three this weekend, and we swept them down there," he said. "So, I don't know. I really don't."
But here's what really shows you what a complete sham this year's RPI appears to be:
The ACC has teams ranked No. 43, No. 44, No. 45, No. 47, No. 48, No. 49, No. 52 and No. 55.
It's like the computer (I assume it's a computer; maybe this year they're using a masked-up monkey) just bundled up all the ACC teams and threw them into an algorithm. Or up against the wall.
Eight teams ranked between No. 43 and No. 55 is just bonkers. And proves that those six extra games, those two non-conference series that were lost, have completely altered what the RPI thinks of this conference.
Which wouldn't be a big deal except for the small, tiny fact that the committee seems to REALLY care about that RPI. Even in a year where it said it would give more credence to the "eye test" than just a formula spitting out a list.
In college basketball, the selection committee has stopped using the RPI as an evaluation tool altogether. Presumably because of issues like this, when the numbers just don't make any sense.
The NCAA, as we all know, cares much, much less about baseball than it does basketball though. Which is why I can almost guarantee FSU will be sent to Gainesville for its regional, because it's the easiest thing to do.
And the easiest thing for the baseball committee to do a few weeks from now will be to just use the RPI as the tournament selection tool. Even in a year where COVID-19 and conference ADs made scheduling non-conference games tougher than ever.
And if that happens, there likely will be some rightfully furious ACC teams when Selection Monday rolls around.
Contact senior writer Corey Clark at corey@warchant.com and follow @Corey_Clark on Twitter.
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