2/7/2023 football Edit

ESPN says FSU football will have most returning production in FBS for 2023

Curt Weiler • TheOsceola

Senior Writer

The Florida State football hype train ahead of the 2023 season seems to keep picking up steam.

The latest in national media hyping up the Seminoles came Tuesday morning when ESPN college football analyst Bill Connolly released his annual returning production leaderboard for the upcoming season.

The metric, which Connolly has created, measures how much of the offensive and defensive production from the previous season is set to return the following season.

While the Seminoles' 2023 season has high expectations because of how much FSU is perceived to be returning, the returning production ranking confirms this belief. With 87% of its 2022 production returning according to Connolly's weighted scale, FSU is No. 1 out of 133 FBS teams in the ranking.

By bringing back quarterback Jordan Travis, four of the team's five leading rushers, seven of the team's 10 leading receivers and four offensive linemen with extensive starting experience, FSU's offense ranks 12th nationally in the metric with 80% returning production.

The FSU defense, meanwhile, ranks second nationally with 94% production after losing only a few contributing players in Jammie Robinson, Robert Cooper and Leonard Warner III. The decisions by Jared Verse, Fabien Lovett, Tatum Bethune, Kalen DeLoach and others to return will give the Seminoles one of the more experienced defenses in the country next season.

For those wondering about Connolly's formula, the offense breaks down as returning WR/TE receiving yards as 24% of the overall number, returning QB passing yards at 23%, returning OL snaps at 47% and returning RB rushing yards at 6%.

Defensively, percent of returning tackles are 70% of the metric while returning passes defensed are 14%, returning tackles for loss are 12% and returning sacks are 4%.

What also helps FSU in these metrics is that Connolly factors the production of transfer additions at their previous schools in his numbers. As such, FSU's numerous transfers who enrolled after they had extensive experience at their previous schools last season, from Braden Fiske at defensive tackle to Fentrell Cypress at cornerback and each of FSU's three offensive line additions, further bolsters these returning production numbers.

The only one of FSU's 2023 opponents which ranks in the top 10 in returning production is Boston College, which ranks eighth at 78%. Aside from the Eagles, Syracuse (24th at 73%) is the only other team on FSU's schedule which ranks in the top 25.

Of note, LSU and Clemson, FSU's two most notable 2023 opponents, rank 32nd and 36th respectively. That could be a factor in the game considering FSU plays both those two teams in the first four weeks of the season.

As for in-state rivals, Miami ranks 35th, but will be installing two new coordinators. Florida, which is coming off a 6-7 season in Billy Napier's first year, ranks 107th at 54%, better than only Alabama among SEC teams.

Will these numbers assure FSU of any victories come the fall? No. However, Connolly does share in his story that teams which return 80% or more of their production improve by an average of 5.8 adjusted points per game in his SP+ metric the following season. Adding 5.8 adjusted points to FSU's 2022 SP+ would raise the Seminoles from 27th to 11th, making them the highest-rated ACC team.