Every fourth-down decision Mike Norvell made for FSU Football in 2021
It’s fourth down. The Florida State football team needs 2 1/2 yards to continue the drive. Late third quarter, ‘Noles down by 3 in a game that’s been a mix of offense and defense for both sides. Should Mike Norvell keep the offense on the field or send out the punt unit to try to pin the opponent deep?
It’s a debate that never fails to raise the blood pressure of fans a few points, especially in the age of analytics. Much like bullpen management in baseball, fourth-down decisions happen in real time and can be first guessed (and second-, third- and fourth-guessed) with extreme vigor.
Everyone gets involved; Fans, beat reporters and TV analysts all either nod in approval or huff and puff that this decision will, “cost them the game.”
What’s not to love?
So what do we make of Mike Novell’s philosophy after the ‘Noles come up short on third down? Let’s define our terms first. We will go through *every* fourth-down decision this year to attempt to gain a better idea of a pattern, if any. A follow-up story on that is coming soon, as you'll need oxygen after this deep dive.
For those of you who loathe “the nerds who influence critical decisions,” we’re throwing in a bot’s thoughts on the matter as well. Only fair to let everyone (or thing) have a say. The bot is made by @aisports_4th on Twitter, folks who modeled their project after noted fourth-down analyst Ben Baldwin.
FSU vs. Notre Dame, September 5th, 2021
FIRST QUARTER
Score: 7-0 Notre Dame
Time Remaining: 11:37
Spot: FSU 10 yard-line
Yards to Gain: 20
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: 44-yard punt by Alex Mastromanno.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change*: +1.6% chance of winning
Comment:
None necessary, need 20 yards and pinned deep. Punt. *The win probability change is at the time of the decision, not after the play was run. It cannot be stated clearly enough that this figure is about the decision between third and fourth down, not the result of the fourth down play itself.
---
Score: 7-0 Notre Dame
Time Remaining: 8:07
Spot: FSU 6
Yards to gain: 19
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: 53-yard punt by Mastromanno.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +0.9%
Comment:
Even worse than the first situation. Go get ‘em, Mastromanno.
---
SECOND QUARTER
Score: 7-7 Tie
Time Remaining: 13:49
Spot: ND 43
Yards to gain: 8
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: 36-yard punt by Mastromanno.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.4%
Comment:
Tie game, pin ‘em deep. Matromanno succeeds.
---
Score: 17-14 Notre Dame
Time Remaining: 1:34
Spot: FSU 30
Yards to gain: 5
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: 38-yard punt by Mastromanno.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.4%
Comment:
Below-average punt, but a no-brainer to send Mastromanno out there.
---
THIRD QUARTER
Score: 31-20 Notre Dame
Time Remaining: 5:45
Spot: FSU 33
Yards to gain: 2
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Jordan Travis interception returned to FSU 32.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +0.8% by going for it
Comment:
This was clearly a decision made by a head coach who believed his defense was gassed and the game was getting away from FSU. This writer thought the failure to convert likely ended the game right there as Notre Dame quickly scored a touchdown. There were more theatrics ahead.
---
Score: 38-20 Notre Dame
Time Remaining: 2:22
Spot: ND 28
Yards to gain: 2
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Jashaun Corbin rush for four yards. First down.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +0.5% by going for it
Comment:
Probability doesn’t spike too high because the score is lopsided in this moment. Field goal is not worth it down 18, go for it all day.
---
FOURTH QUARTER
Score: 38-35 Notre Dame
Time Remaining: 0:45
Spot: ND 25
Yards to gain: 6
Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal
Result: Ryan Fitzgerald 43 yard field goal attempt is GOOD.
Bot says: Kick FG
Bot Win Probability Change: +6.7%
Comment:
Take the tie and settle it in overtime. Unfortunately, Notre Dame did just that.
FSU vs. Jacksonville State, September 11th, 2021
*Note: this is the only game with no Bot data in 2021
FIRST QUARTER
Score: 0-0
Time Remaining: 12:43
Spot: JSU 44
Yards to gain: 4
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: McKenzie Milton pass to Keyshawn Helton incomplete.
Bot says: N/A
Bot Win Probability Change: N/A
Comment:
Aggressive decision, wide-open drop by Helton. A harbinger of epic proportions.
---
Score: 0-0
Time Remaining: 8:24
Spot: FSU 19
Yards to gain: 15
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 43-yard punt.
Bot says: N/A
Bot Win Probability Change: N/A
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 0-0
Time Remaining: 3:58
Spot: FSU 35
Yards to gain: 4
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 44-yard punt.
Bot says: N/A
Bot Win Probability Change: N/A
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
SECOND QUARTER
Score: 7-0 Jacksonville State
Time Remaining: 10:31
Spot: FSU 25
Yards to gain: 10
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 42-yard punt.
Bot says: N/A
Bot Win Probability Change: N/A
Comment:
Woof. Why are we talking about this game?
---
Score: 7-7
Time Remaining: 2:18
Spot: FSU 20
Yards to gain: 8
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 38-yard punt.
Bot says: N/A
Bot Win Probability Change: N/A
Comment:
None.
---
THIRD QUARTER
Score: 14-7 FSU
Time Remaining: 10:55
Spot: FSU 34
Yards to gain: 22
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 65-yard punt.
Bot says: N/A
Bot Win Probability Change: N/A
Comment:
What a boot and runout for Mastromanno. Downed at the JSU 1-yard line.
---
Score: 14-7 FSU
Time Remaining: 4:26
Spot: JSU 35
Yards to gain: 15
Actual Decision: Kick FG
Result: Fitzgerald 53-yard field goal attempt is GOOD.
Bot says: N/A
Bot Win Probability Change: N/A
Comment:
Weird area of the field, but 15 yards is far too many. Big kick to push it to a two-score lead.
---
FOURTH QUARTER
Score: 17-7 FSU
Time Remaining: 9:54
Spot: JSU 3
Yards to gain: 3
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Milton pass to Malik McClain incomplete.
Bot says: N/A
Bot Win Probability Change: N/A
Comment:
A touchdown pushes the lead to three scores. In theory, that sounds great. But a fade was the call, and though McClain almost made the play, the stands rightfully groaned.
---
Score: 17-14 FSU
Time Remaining: 1:39
Spot: FSU 44
Yards to gain: 2
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.
Bot says: N/A
Bot Win Probability Change: N/A
Comment:
Norvell plays it safe and trusts his defense up three points. The rest … well, you know.
FSU at Wake Forest, September 18th, 2021
FIRST QUARTER
Score: 7-0 Wake Forest
Time Remaining: 10:58
Spot: FSU 24
Yards to gain: 11
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 35-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.2%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 7-0 Wake
Time Remaining: 6:55
Spot: FSU 24
Yards to gain: 4
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 44-yard point.
Bot says: N/A
Bot Win Probability Change: N/A
Comment:
Bot did not track this situation. It’s a clear punt though.
---
THIRD QUARTER
Score: 27-14 Wake Forest
Time Remaining: 12:08
Spot: 50-yard line
Yards to gain: 12
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 40-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.6%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 35-14 Wake Forest
Time Remaining: 3:52
Spot: Wake 11
Yards to gain: 2
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Milton run for loss of two. Turnover on downs.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +0.1%
Comment:
Desperation, had to go for it. The called run for Milton, though, is perplexing.
FSU vs Louisville, September 25th, 2021
FIRST QUARTER
Score: 7-0 Louisville
Time Remaining: 11:59
Spot: FSU 12
Yards to gain: 17
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 53-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt.
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.2%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 10-0 Louisville
Time Remaining: 4:56
Spot: UL 49
Yards to gain: 4
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Milton pass incomplete, intended for Camm McDonald.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.4%
Comment:
One of the first debatable choices since the third quarter of the Notre Dame game. Louisville’s hot start had a lot do to with it, in all likelihood.
---
SECOND QUARTER
Score: 24-7 Louisville
Time Remaining: 5:27
Spot: FSU 18
Yards to gain: 6
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 48-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -0.5%
Comment:
We have our first disagreement with the bot, which claims win probability was hurt by kicking the ball away. This likely has something to do with the score getting out of hand in the computer’s “thinking.”
---
Score: 31-13 Louisville
Time Remaining: 0:03
Spot: FSU 41
Yards to gain: 8
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Milton pass incomplete.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +0.1%
Comment:
Hail Mary situation. Nothing to see here.
---
THIRD QUARTER
Score: 31-20 Louisville
Time Remaining: 10:10
Spot: FSU 30
Yards to gain: 3
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 42-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -0.4%
Comment:
FSU shrunk the lead down to 11 to start the half. The bot says that’s not good enough - go for it on your own 30. Norvell disagrees
---
Score: 31-20 Louisville
Time Remaining: 5:46
Spot: FSU 22
Yards to gain: 7
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -1.4%
Comment:
The bot is losing patience.
---
FOURTH QUARTER
Score: 31-20 Louisville
Time Remaining: 14:55
Spot: UL 29
Yards to gain: 5
Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal
Result: Fitzgerald 47-yard attempt NO GOOD.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -1.6%
Comment:
This is a healthy debate. Early fourth quarter, a made kick does reduce the margin to within one score (albeit at eight points). But this is widely considered a blank canvas part of the field for aggressive coaches.
---
Score: 31-20 Louisville
Time Remaining: 11:35
Spot: FSU 43
Yards to gain: 3
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yard. Turnover on downs.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.6%
Comment:
Fairly aggressive call here and FSU gets stuffed.
---
Score: 31-20 Louisville
Time Remaining: 8:52
Spot: UL 27
Yards to gain: 9
Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal
Result: Fitzgerald 45-yard attempt GOOD.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -1.7%
Comment:
Despite nine yards to gain, the bot says push ahead. Norvell elects to kick and FItzgerald shrinks the gap to one score.
---
Score: 31-23 Louisville
Time Remaining: 2:18
Spot: UL 39
Yards to gain: 7
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Milton pass intended for Andrew Parchment is incomplete. Turnover on downs.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.9%
Comment:
Desperation mode. No-brainer.
FSU vs Syracuse, October 2nd, 2021
FIRST QUARTER
Score: 0-0
Time Remaining: 10:51
Spot: SYR 45
Yards to gain: 2
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Jordan Travis pass to Jashaun Corbin complete for four yards. First down.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +0
Comment:
Odd that it was a neutral move in the bot's model. Maybe a function of how early the game it happened?
---
Score: 0-0
Time Remaining: 8:22
Spot: SYR 21
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Jordan Travis run for two yards. First down.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.1%
Comment:
Second green light on the same drive. Second conversion.
---
Score: 0-0
Time Remaining: 6:35
Spot: SYR 17
Yards to gain: 8
Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal
Result: Fitzgerald 35-yard attempt GOOD.
Bot says: Kick FG
Bot Win Probability Change: +0.6%
Comment:
Too many yards to get a fresh set of downs.
---
Score: 3-0 FSU
Time Remaining: 0:23
Spot: FSU 37
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 49-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -0.5%
Comment:
You won’t find many situations in which the bot would say punt with one yard to get. Analytics hounds scream “Go!” Norvell opts to play it safe (smart?).
---
SECOND QUARTER
Score: 3-0 FSU
Time Remaining: 11:41
Spot: FSU 35
Yards to gain: 19
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 49-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +4.1%
Comment:
Bot really, really agrees here.
---
Score: 9-6 FSU
Time Remaining: 4:16
Spot: FSU 21
Yards to gain: 14
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +4.2%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
THIRD QUARTER
Score: 16-13 FSU
Time Remaining: 13:48
Spot: FSU 30
Yards to gain: 3
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 44-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.2%
Comment: I was surprised the bot says punt here, but it’s not wrong.
---
Score: 23-13 FSU
Time Remaining: 1:47
Spot: FSU 10
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -2.2%
Comment:
The bot is nuts. 10-point game, with this offensive line, go ahead and kick it away.
---
FOURTH QUARTER
Score: 30-30
Time Remaining: 3:25
Spot: FSU 24
Yards to gain: 2
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 48-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -3.4%
Comment:
This is why they pay the head man the big bucks. A winless football team that had blown a 10-point lead is punting away and trusting its defense to hold Syracuse scoreless. Doak was dour when the punt team rolled out there, and rightly so. Tough call with just two to get, but that call came up roses.
FSU at North Carolina, October 9th, 2021
FIRST QUARTER
Score: 3-0 North Carolina
Time Remaining: 9:36
Spot: FSU 27
Yards to gain: 15
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 43-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.9%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
THIRD QUARTER
Score: 21-10 FSU
Time Remaining: 13:01
Spot: FSU 34
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 40-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -5.6%
Comment:
Bot hates it, but it’s the right move. Inviting disaster if you get stuffed. Only the second fourth down all day.
---
FOURTH QUARTER
Score: 35-17 FSU
Time Remaining: 8:20
Spot: FSU 34
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 48-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -0.4%
Comment: Bot is not as down on this call as the third-quarter decision. Right move again; UNC had packed it in, and it was apparent.
FSU vs. UMass, October 23rd, 2021
FIRST QUARTER
Score: 7-3 FSU
Time Remaining: 9:00
Spot: UMASS 18
Yards to gain: 9
Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal
Result: Fitzgerald 36-yard field goal attempt is GOOD.
Bot says: Kick FG
Bot Win Probability Change: +0.1%
Comment:
We're all on the same page here.
---
THIRD QUARTER
Score: 38-3 FSU
Time Remaining: 8:54
Spot: FSU 26
Yards to gain: 7
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 47-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: 0%
Comment:
Garbage time.
---
FOURTH QUARTER
Score: 59-3 FSU
Time Remaining: 3:51
Spot: FSU 37
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Go for it.
Result: Ja’Khi Douglas run for no gain. Turnover on downs
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: 0%
Comment:
Garbage time.
FSU at Clemson, October 30th, 2021
FIRST QUARTER
Score: 0-0
Time Remaining: 9:10
Spot: FSU 28
Yards to gain: 12
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 48-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +4.2%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
SECOND QUARTER
Score: 6-3 FSU
Time Remaining: 10:20
Spot: FSU 35
Yards to gain: 7
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 42-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.6%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 17-13 Clemson
Time Remaining: 1:40
Spot: FSU 27
Yards to gain: 8
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 41-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.5%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
THIRD QUARTER
Score: 17-13 Clemson
Time Remaining: 12:55
Spot: FSU 49
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Corbin rush for no gain. Turnover on downs.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +5.1%
Comment: Aggressive, good spot on the field to try it. Offensive line loses.
---
Score: 17-13 Clemson
Time Remaining: 7:10
Spot: FSU 45
Yards to gain: 12
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.7%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 17-13 Clemson
Time Remaining: 3:40
Spot: CLE 42
Yards to gain: 10
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 38-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +0.8%
Comment:
This decision was preceded by a false start on 4th-and-5. A little surprised that the bot is calling for a punt.
---
FOURTH QUARTER
Score: 17-13 Clemson
Time Remaining: 9:02
Spot: FSU 44
Yards to gain: 10
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 42-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.1%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 20-17 FSU
Time Remaining: 3:57
Spot: FSU 20
Yards to gain: 9
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 38-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +13.2%
Comment:
Bot wants nothing to do with going for it. Agreed.
---
Score: 24-20 Clemson
Time Remaining: 1:32
Spot: FSU 17
Yards to gain: 32
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 52-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.1%
Comment:
Disastrous negative play on third down. That it takes 32 yards to gain for the bot to yield a small positive win probability tells you that somewhere around 4th-and-25 is where the bot would suggest going for it as the better play.
FSU vs. N.C. State, November 6th, 2021
FIRST QUARTER
Score: 0-0
Time Remaining: 13:32
Spot: FSU 19
Yards to gain: 11
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 42-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +3.1%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 0-0
Time Remaining: 10:00
Spot: FSU 24
Yards to gain: 6
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 38-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.8%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 7-0 N.C. State
Time Remaining: 8:24
Spot: FSU 34
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 58-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -0.7%
Comment:
Slight lean on going for it from the bot. Thanks to the flu, lots of backups were playing on this afternoon, quarterback and offensive line included. There’s no way that figures into the model, so I agree with the punt.
---
Score: 7-0 N.C. State
Time Remaining: 0:49
Spot: FSU 31
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 36-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -4.5%
Comment:
See previous comment.
---
SECOND QUARTER
Score: 14-0 N.C. State
Time Remaining: 11:32
Spot: FSU 34
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Go
Result: Corbin rush for one yard. First down.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +0.9%
Comment:
Norvell feeling the heat in a two-score game. ‘Noles get it by the skin of their teeth.
---
Score: 14-0 N.C. State
Time Remaining: 9:01
Spot: 50 yard-line
Yards to gain: 30
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 44-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +0.4%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 14-0 N.C. State
Time Remaining: 1:30
Spot: FSU 17
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 43-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +0%
Comment:
Dealer’s choice, says the bot.
---
THIRD QUARTER
Score: 21-7 N.C. State
Time Remaining: 1:30
Spot: NCSt 3
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Corbin run for 3 yards. Touchdown.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.3%
Comment:
Reading the room that a field goal was not enough. If you’re stuffed, N.C. State is pinned deep. Good call.
---
Score: 21-14 N.C. State
Time Remaining: 3:53
Spot: FSU 18
Yards to gain: 22
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 40-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +5.0%
Comment:
No-brainer.
-
FOURTH QUARTER
Score: 21-14 N.C. State
Time Remaining: 14:23
Spot: FSU 35
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 45-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -2.2%
Comment:
Tough call, probably correct. But a future drive leaves this one as a head-scratcher.
---
Score: 21-14 N.C. State
Time Remaining: 8:16
Spot: FSU 43
Yards to gain: 4
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Milton pass intended for Ontaria Wilson incomplete. Turnover on downs.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.1%
Comment:
One of my biggest gripes of the year. Plenty of time on the clock, and if you’re not going to go for it on 4th-and-1 earlier in the quarter, why 4th-and-4 here with a backup quarterback and shoddy offensive line?
---
Score: 28-14 N.C. State
Time Remaining: 7:33
Spot: FSU 25
Yards to gain: 10
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 58-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +0.0%
Comment:
Down two touchdowns with under eight minutes to go. If you went for it on 4th-and-4 in a one score game, why punt now?
---
Score: 28-14 N.C. State
Time Remaining: 1:49
Spot: NCSt. 49
Yards to gain: 8
Actual Decision: Go for it.
Result: Milton pass intended for Jordan Young complete for a loss of 3 yards. Turnover on downs.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.4%
Comment:
No-brainer.
FSU vs. Miami, November 13th, 2021
FIRST QUARTER
Score: 7-0 FSU
Time Remaining: 7:15
Spot: FSU 19
Yards to gain: 7
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 41-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.9%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 7-0 FSU
Time Remaining: 1:30
Spot: FSU 43
Yards to gain: 10
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 33-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.7%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
SECOND QUARTER
Score: 14-0 FSU
Time Remaining: 12:46
Spot: UM 4
Yards to gain: 4
Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal
Result: Fitzgerald 22-yard field goal attempt GOOD.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -0.5%
Comment:
Totally disagree with the bot. Push the lead to three scores. Good call Norvell.
---
Score: 17-0 FSU
Time Remaining: 5:51
Spot: UM 34
Yards to gain: 7
Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal
Result: Fitzgerald 52-yard field goal attempt NO GOOD.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -0.6%
Comment: No-man’s land. Value of pushing the margin to 20 is not worth the long kick from a pretty average kicker. Go for it.
---
Score: 17-7 FSU
Time Remaining: 0:02
Spot: UM 9
Yards to gain: 2
Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal
Result: Fitzgerald 27-yard field goal attempt GOOD.
Bot says: Kick FG
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.0%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
THIRD QUARTER
Score: 20-7 FSU
Time Remaining: 12:57
Spot: FSU 39
Yards to gain: 10
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 51-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +0.2%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 20-14 FSU
Time Remaining: 3:56
Spot: UM 37
Yards to gain: 10
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 34-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: -0.2%
Comment:
No-man’s land again. If you’re going to punt, execute it like this. Downed at the three-yard line.
---
FOURTH QUARTER
Score: 28-20 Miami
Time Remaining: 14:00
Spot: FSU 33
Yards to gain: 2
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 40-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -3.8%
Comment:
Tough call. Agree with punt.
---
Score: 28-20 Miami
Time Remaining: 8:50
Spot: FSU 45
Yards to gain: 1
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Travis rush for 1 yard. First down.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.9%
Comment: No-brainer.
---
Score: 28-20 Miami
Time Remaining: 4:44
Spot: UM 12
Yards to gain: 3
Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal
Result: Fitzgerald 29-yard field goal attempt GOOD.
Bot says: Go for it
Bot Win Probability Change: -1.2%
Comment:
Tough call. Right call.
---
Score: 28-23 Miami
Time Remaining: 1:02
Spot: UM 25
Yards to gain: 14
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Travis to Parchment. Rivalry history is made on a 25-yard gain.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: +5.6%
Comment:
No-brainer. Doak goes wild.
FSU at Boston College, November 20th, 2021
FIRST QUARTER
Score: 0-0
Time Remaining: 8:46
Spot: BC 39
Yards to gain: 24
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 38-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +3.4%
Comment:
No-brainer. Excellent punt coverage.
---
SECOND QUARTER
Score: 14-3 FSU
Time Remaining: 2:32
Spot: BC 49
Yards to gain: 11
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.1%
Comment: No-brainer.
---
Score: 16-3 FSU
Time Remaining: 0:55
Spot: BC 18
Yards to gain: 7
Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal
Result: Fitzgerald 36-yard field goal attempt GOOD.
Bot says: Kick FG
Bot Win Probability Change: +1.2%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 19-3 FSU
Time Remaining: 0:05
Spot: FSU 9
Yards to gain: 21
Actual Decision: Go for it
Result: Intentional incompletion to run out clock.
Bot says: Kick FG
Bot Win Probability Change: +0%
Comment:
Bot glitch!
---
THIRD QUARTER
Score: 26-10 FSU
Time Remaining: 3:05
Spot: BC 39
Yards to gain: 10
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 35-yard punt
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +0.2%
Comment:
This came on the heels of a bad illegal formation call. Refs were miserable. Good choice to just pin B.C. down.
---
FOURTH QUARTER
Score: 26-16 FSU
Time Remaining: 12:03
Spot: FSU 26
Yards to gain: 9
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +5.4%
Comment:
Good choice. Terrible “unnecessary roughness” call on punt returner.
---
Score: 26-23 FSU
Time Remaining: 8:05
Spot: FSU 42
Yards to gain: 6
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 47-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.1%
Comment:
Delay of game penalty on the 4th-and-1 situation. At six yards, kick it.
FSU at Florida, November 27th, 2021
FIRST QUARTER
Score: 7-0 Florida
Time Remaining: 8:58
Spot: FSU 30
Yards to gain: 16
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 15-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.7%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 7-0 Florida
Time Remaining: 3:27
Spot: FSU 34
Yards to gain: 29
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 62-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +4.0%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
SECOND QUARTER
Score: 7-0 Florida
Time Remaining: 13:16
Spot: FSU 35
Yards to gain: 18
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 40-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +2.7%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
THIRD QUARTER
Score: 7-7
Time Remaining: 13:51
Spot: FSU 34
Yards to gain: 11
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 35-yard punt.
Bot says: Punt
Bot Win Probability Change: +3.3%
Comment:
No-brainer.
---
Score: 10-7 Florida
Time Remaining: 7:34
Spot: UF 36
Yards to gain: 16
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 35-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -0.2%
Comment:
16 yards is a lot. Definitely speaks to how Norvell was feeling about Fitzgerald that day.
---
FOURTH QUARTER
Score: 24-14 Florida
Time Remaining: 5:22
Spot: FSU 18
Yards to gain: 9
Actual Decision: Punt
Result: Mastromanno 48-yard punt.
Bot says: Go
Bot Win Probability Change: -0.1%
Comment:
Pretty much dealer’s choice.
Note: Stay tuned for a follow-up analysis on this topic.
Warchant's Austin Cox contributed to this report.
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Talk about this story with other Florida State fans in the Tribal Council