Florida State football head coach Mike Norvell's fourth-down decisions for the Seminoles in 2021.
football Edit

Every fourth-down decision Mike Norvell made for FSU Football in 2021

It’s fourth down. The Florida State football team needs 2 1/2 yards to continue the drive. Late third quarter, ‘Noles down by 3 in a game that’s been a mix of offense and defense for both sides. Should Mike Norvell keep the offense on the field or send out the punt unit to try to pin the opponent deep?

It’s a debate that never fails to raise the blood pressure of fans a few points, especially in the age of analytics. Much like bullpen management in baseball, fourth-down decisions happen in real time and can be first guessed (and second-, third- and fourth-guessed) with extreme vigor.

Everyone gets involved; Fans, beat reporters and TV analysts all either nod in approval or huff and puff that this decision will, “cost them the game.”

What’s not to love?

So what do we make of Mike Novell’s philosophy after the ‘Noles come up short on third down? Let’s define our terms first. We will go through *every* fourth-down decision this year to attempt to gain a better idea of a pattern, if any. A follow-up story on that is coming soon, as you'll need oxygen after this deep dive.

For those of you who loathe “the nerds who influence critical decisions,” we’re throwing in a bot’s thoughts on the matter as well. Only fair to let everyone (or thing) have a say. The bot is made by @aisports_4th on Twitter, folks who modeled their project after noted fourth-down analyst Ben Baldwin.

One of Mike Norvell's toughest jobs is to read the room on fourth down.
One of Mike Norvell's toughest jobs is to read the room on fourth down. (The USA Today)

FSU vs. Notre Dame, September 5th, 2021

FIRST QUARTER

Score: 7-0 Notre Dame

Time Remaining: 11:37

Spot: FSU 10 yard-line

Yards to Gain: 20

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: 44-yard punt by Alex Mastromanno.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change*: +1.6% chance of winning

Comment:

None necessary, need 20 yards and pinned deep. Punt. *The win probability change is at the time of the decision, not after the play was run. It cannot be stated clearly enough that this figure is about the decision between third and fourth down, not the result of the fourth down play itself.

---

Score: 7-0 Notre Dame

Time Remaining: 8:07

Spot: FSU 6

Yards to gain: 19

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: 53-yard punt by Mastromanno.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +0.9%

Comment:

Even worse than the first situation. Go get ‘em, Mastromanno.

---

SECOND QUARTER

Score: 7-7 Tie

Time Remaining: 13:49

Spot: ND 43

Yards to gain: 8

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: 36-yard punt by Mastromanno.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.4%

Comment:

Tie game, pin ‘em deep. Matromanno succeeds.

---

Score: 17-14 Notre Dame

Time Remaining: 1:34

Spot: FSU 30

Yards to gain: 5

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: 38-yard punt by Mastromanno.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.4%

Comment:

Below-average punt, but a no-brainer to send Mastromanno out there.

---

THIRD QUARTER

Score: 31-20 Notre Dame

Time Remaining: 5:45

Spot: FSU 33

Yards to gain: 2

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Jordan Travis interception returned to FSU 32.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +0.8% by going for it

Comment:

This was clearly a decision made by a head coach who believed his defense was gassed and the game was getting away from FSU. This writer thought the failure to convert likely ended the game right there as Notre Dame quickly scored a touchdown. There were more theatrics ahead.

---

Score: 38-20 Notre Dame

Time Remaining: 2:22

Spot: ND 28

Yards to gain: 2

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Jashaun Corbin rush for four yards. First down.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +0.5% by going for it

Comment:

Probability doesn’t spike too high because the score is lopsided in this moment. Field goal is not worth it down 18, go for it all day.

---

FOURTH QUARTER

Score: 38-35 Notre Dame

Time Remaining: 0:45

Spot: ND 25

Yards to gain: 6

Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal

Result: Ryan Fitzgerald 43 yard field goal attempt is GOOD.

Bot says: Kick FG

Bot Win Probability Change: +6.7%

Comment:

Take the tie and settle it in overtime. Unfortunately, Notre Dame did just that.

FSU vs. Jacksonville State, September 11th, 2021

*Note: this is the only game with no Bot data in 2021

FIRST QUARTER

Score: 0-0

Time Remaining: 12:43

Spot: JSU 44

Yards to gain: 4

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: McKenzie Milton pass to Keyshawn Helton incomplete.

Bot says: N/A

Bot Win Probability Change: N/A

Comment:

Aggressive decision, wide-open drop by Helton. A harbinger of epic proportions.

---

Score: 0-0

Time Remaining: 8:24

Spot: FSU 19

Yards to gain: 15

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 43-yard punt.

Bot says: N/A

Bot Win Probability Change: N/A

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 0-0

Time Remaining: 3:58

Spot: FSU 35

Yards to gain: 4

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 44-yard punt.

Bot says: N/A

Bot Win Probability Change: N/A

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

SECOND QUARTER

Score: 7-0 Jacksonville State

Time Remaining: 10:31

Spot: FSU 25

Yards to gain: 10

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 42-yard punt.

Bot says: N/A

Bot Win Probability Change: N/A

Comment:

Woof. Why are we talking about this game?

---

Score: 7-7

Time Remaining: 2:18

Spot: FSU 20

Yards to gain: 8

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 38-yard punt.

Bot says: N/A

Bot Win Probability Change: N/A

Comment:

None.

---

THIRD QUARTER

Score: 14-7 FSU

Time Remaining: 10:55

Spot: FSU 34

Yards to gain: 22

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 65-yard punt.

Bot says: N/A

Bot Win Probability Change: N/A

Comment:

What a boot and runout for Mastromanno. Downed at the JSU 1-yard line.

---

Score: 14-7 FSU

Time Remaining: 4:26

Spot: JSU 35

Yards to gain: 15

Actual Decision: Kick FG

Result: Fitzgerald 53-yard field goal attempt is GOOD.

Bot says: N/A

Bot Win Probability Change: N/A

Comment:

Weird area of the field, but 15 yards is far too many. Big kick to push it to a two-score lead.

---

FOURTH QUARTER

Score: 17-7 FSU

Time Remaining: 9:54

Spot: JSU 3

Yards to gain: 3

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Milton pass to Malik McClain incomplete.

Bot says: N/A

Bot Win Probability Change: N/A

Comment:

A touchdown pushes the lead to three scores. In theory, that sounds great. But a fade was the call, and though McClain almost made the play, the stands rightfully groaned.

---

Score: 17-14 FSU

Time Remaining: 1:39

Spot: FSU 44

Yards to gain: 2

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.

Bot says: N/A

Bot Win Probability Change: N/A

Comment:

Norvell plays it safe and trusts his defense up three points. The rest … well, you know.

FSU at Wake Forest, September 18th, 2021

FIRST QUARTER

Score: 7-0 Wake Forest

Time Remaining: 10:58

Spot: FSU 24

Yards to gain: 11

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 35-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.2%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 7-0 Wake

Time Remaining: 6:55

Spot: FSU 24

Yards to gain: 4

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 44-yard point.

Bot says: N/A

Bot Win Probability Change: N/A

Comment:

Bot did not track this situation. It’s a clear punt though.

---

THIRD QUARTER

Score: 27-14 Wake Forest

Time Remaining: 12:08

Spot: 50-yard line

Yards to gain: 12

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 40-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.6%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 35-14 Wake Forest

Time Remaining: 3:52

Spot: Wake 11

Yards to gain: 2

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Milton run for loss of two. Turnover on downs.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +0.1%

Comment:

Desperation, had to go for it. The called run for Milton, though, is perplexing.

FSU vs Louisville, September 25th, 2021

FIRST QUARTER

Score: 7-0 Louisville

Time Remaining: 11:59

Spot: FSU 12

Yards to gain: 17

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 53-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt.

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.2%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 10-0 Louisville

Time Remaining: 4:56

Spot: UL 49

Yards to gain: 4

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Milton pass incomplete, intended for Camm McDonald.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.4%

Comment:

One of the first debatable choices since the third quarter of the Notre Dame game. Louisville’s hot start had a lot do to with it, in all likelihood.

---

SECOND QUARTER

Score: 24-7 Louisville

Time Remaining: 5:27

Spot: FSU 18

Yards to gain: 6

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 48-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -0.5%

Comment:

We have our first disagreement with the bot, which claims win probability was hurt by kicking the ball away. This likely has something to do with the score getting out of hand in the computer’s “thinking.”

---

Score: 31-13 Louisville

Time Remaining: 0:03

Spot: FSU 41

Yards to gain: 8

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Milton pass incomplete.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +0.1%

Comment:

Hail Mary situation. Nothing to see here.

---

THIRD QUARTER

Score: 31-20 Louisville

Time Remaining: 10:10

Spot: FSU 30

Yards to gain: 3

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 42-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -0.4%

Comment:

FSU shrunk the lead down to 11 to start the half. The bot says that’s not good enough - go for it on your own 30. Norvell disagrees

---

Score: 31-20 Louisville

Time Remaining: 5:46

Spot: FSU 22

Yards to gain: 7

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -1.4%

Comment:

The bot is losing patience.

---

FOURTH QUARTER

Score: 31-20 Louisville

Time Remaining: 14:55

Spot: UL 29

Yards to gain: 5

Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal

Result: Fitzgerald 47-yard attempt NO GOOD.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -1.6%

Comment:

This is a healthy debate. Early fourth quarter, a made kick does reduce the margin to within one score (albeit at eight points). But this is widely considered a blank canvas part of the field for aggressive coaches.

---

Score: 31-20 Louisville

Time Remaining: 11:35

Spot: FSU 43

Yards to gain: 3

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yard. Turnover on downs.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.6%

Comment:

Fairly aggressive call here and FSU gets stuffed.

---

Score: 31-20 Louisville

Time Remaining: 8:52

Spot: UL 27

Yards to gain: 9

Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal

Result: Fitzgerald 45-yard attempt GOOD.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -1.7%

Comment:

Despite nine yards to gain, the bot says push ahead. Norvell elects to kick and FItzgerald shrinks the gap to one score.

---

Score: 31-23 Louisville

Time Remaining: 2:18

Spot: UL 39

Yards to gain: 7

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Milton pass intended for Andrew Parchment is incomplete. Turnover on downs.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.9%

Comment:

Desperation mode. No-brainer.

FSU vs Syracuse, October 2nd, 2021


FIRST QUARTER

Score: 0-0

Time Remaining: 10:51

Spot: SYR 45

Yards to gain: 2

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Jordan Travis pass to Jashaun Corbin complete for four yards. First down.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +0

Comment:

Odd that it was a neutral move in the bot's model. Maybe a function of how early the game it happened?

---

Score: 0-0

Time Remaining: 8:22

Spot: SYR 21

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Jordan Travis run for two yards. First down.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.1%

Comment:

Second green light on the same drive. Second conversion.

---

Score: 0-0

Time Remaining: 6:35

Spot: SYR 17

Yards to gain: 8

Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal

Result: Fitzgerald 35-yard attempt GOOD.

Bot says: Kick FG

Bot Win Probability Change: +0.6%

Comment:

Too many yards to get a fresh set of downs.

---

Score: 3-0 FSU

Time Remaining: 0:23

Spot: FSU 37

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 49-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -0.5%

Comment:

You won’t find many situations in which the bot would say punt with one yard to get. Analytics hounds scream “Go!” Norvell opts to play it safe (smart?).

---

SECOND QUARTER

Score: 3-0 FSU

Time Remaining: 11:41

Spot: FSU 35

Yards to gain: 19

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 49-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +4.1%

Comment:

Bot really, really agrees here.

---

Score: 9-6 FSU

Time Remaining: 4:16

Spot: FSU 21

Yards to gain: 14

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +4.2%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

THIRD QUARTER

Score: 16-13 FSU

Time Remaining: 13:48

Spot: FSU 30

Yards to gain: 3

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 44-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.2%

Comment: I was surprised the bot says punt here, but it’s not wrong.

---

Score: 23-13 FSU

Time Remaining: 1:47

Spot: FSU 10

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -2.2%

Comment:

The bot is nuts. 10-point game, with this offensive line, go ahead and kick it away.

---

FOURTH QUARTER

Score: 30-30

Time Remaining: 3:25

Spot: FSU 24

Yards to gain: 2

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 48-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -3.4%

Comment:

This is why they pay the head man the big bucks. A winless football team that had blown a 10-point lead is punting away and trusting its defense to hold Syracuse scoreless. Doak was dour when the punt team rolled out there, and rightly so. Tough call with just two to get, but that call came up roses.

FSU at North Carolina, October 9th, 2021


FIRST QUARTER

Score: 3-0 North Carolina

Time Remaining: 9:36

Spot: FSU 27

Yards to gain: 15

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 43-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.9%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

THIRD QUARTER

Score: 21-10 FSU

Time Remaining: 13:01

Spot: FSU 34

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 40-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -5.6%

Comment:

Bot hates it, but it’s the right move. Inviting disaster if you get stuffed. Only the second fourth down all day.

---

FOURTH QUARTER

Score: 35-17 FSU

Time Remaining: 8:20

Spot: FSU 34

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 48-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -0.4%

Comment: Bot is not as down on this call as the third-quarter decision. Right move again; UNC had packed it in, and it was apparent.

FSU vs. UMass, October 23rd, 2021


FIRST QUARTER

Score: 7-3 FSU

Time Remaining: 9:00

Spot: UMASS 18

Yards to gain: 9

Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal

Result: Fitzgerald 36-yard field goal attempt is GOOD.

Bot says: Kick FG

Bot Win Probability Change: +0.1%

Comment:

We're all on the same page here.

---

THIRD QUARTER

Score: 38-3 FSU

Time Remaining: 8:54

Spot: FSU 26

Yards to gain: 7

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 47-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: 0%

Comment:

Garbage time.

---

FOURTH QUARTER

Score: 59-3 FSU

Time Remaining: 3:51

Spot: FSU 37

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Go for it.

Result: Ja’Khi Douglas run for no gain. Turnover on downs

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: 0%

Comment:

Garbage time.

FSU at Clemson, October 30th, 2021

FIRST QUARTER

Score: 0-0

Time Remaining: 9:10

Spot: FSU 28

Yards to gain: 12

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 48-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +4.2%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

SECOND QUARTER

Score: 6-3 FSU

Time Remaining: 10:20

Spot: FSU 35

Yards to gain: 7

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 42-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.6%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 17-13 Clemson

Time Remaining: 1:40

Spot: FSU 27

Yards to gain: 8

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 41-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.5%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

THIRD QUARTER

Score: 17-13 Clemson

Time Remaining: 12:55

Spot: FSU 49

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Corbin rush for no gain. Turnover on downs.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +5.1%

Comment: Aggressive, good spot on the field to try it. Offensive line loses.

---

Score: 17-13 Clemson

Time Remaining: 7:10

Spot: FSU 45

Yards to gain: 12

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.7%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 17-13 Clemson

Time Remaining: 3:40

Spot: CLE 42

Yards to gain: 10

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 38-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +0.8%

Comment:

This decision was preceded by a false start on 4th-and-5. A little surprised that the bot is calling for a punt.

---

FOURTH QUARTER

Score: 17-13 Clemson

Time Remaining: 9:02

Spot: FSU 44

Yards to gain: 10

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 42-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.1%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 20-17 FSU

Time Remaining: 3:57

Spot: FSU 20

Yards to gain: 9

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 38-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +13.2%

Comment:

Bot wants nothing to do with going for it. Agreed.

---

Score: 24-20 Clemson

Time Remaining: 1:32

Spot: FSU 17

Yards to gain: 32

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 52-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.1%

Comment:

Disastrous negative play on third down. That it takes 32 yards to gain for the bot to yield a small positive win probability tells you that somewhere around 4th-and-25 is where the bot would suggest going for it as the better play.

FSU vs. N.C. State, November 6th, 2021

FIRST QUARTER

Score: 0-0

Time Remaining: 13:32

Spot: FSU 19

Yards to gain: 11

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 42-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +3.1%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 0-0

Time Remaining: 10:00

Spot: FSU 24

Yards to gain: 6

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 38-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.8%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 7-0 N.C. State

Time Remaining: 8:24

Spot: FSU 34

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 58-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -0.7%

Comment:

Slight lean on going for it from the bot. Thanks to the flu, lots of backups were playing on this afternoon, quarterback and offensive line included. There’s no way that figures into the model, so I agree with the punt.

---

Score: 7-0 N.C. State

Time Remaining: 0:49

Spot: FSU 31

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 36-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -4.5%

Comment:

See previous comment.

---

SECOND QUARTER

Score: 14-0 N.C. State

Time Remaining: 11:32

Spot: FSU 34

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Go

Result: Corbin rush for one yard. First down.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +0.9%

Comment:

Norvell feeling the heat in a two-score game. ‘Noles get it by the skin of their teeth.

---

Score: 14-0 N.C. State

Time Remaining: 9:01

Spot: 50 yard-line

Yards to gain: 30

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 44-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +0.4%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 14-0 N.C. State

Time Remaining: 1:30

Spot: FSU 17

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 43-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +0%

Comment:

Dealer’s choice, says the bot.

---

THIRD QUARTER

Score: 21-7 N.C. State

Time Remaining: 1:30

Spot: NCSt 3

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Corbin run for 3 yards. Touchdown.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.3%

Comment:

Reading the room that a field goal was not enough. If you’re stuffed, N.C. State is pinned deep. Good call.

---

Score: 21-14 N.C. State

Time Remaining: 3:53

Spot: FSU 18

Yards to gain: 22

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 40-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +5.0%

Comment:

No-brainer.

-

FOURTH QUARTER

Score: 21-14 N.C. State

Time Remaining: 14:23

Spot: FSU 35

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 45-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -2.2%

Comment:

Tough call, probably correct. But a future drive leaves this one as a head-scratcher.

---

Score: 21-14 N.C. State

Time Remaining: 8:16

Spot: FSU 43

Yards to gain: 4

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Milton pass intended for Ontaria Wilson incomplete. Turnover on downs.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.1%

Comment:

One of my biggest gripes of the year. Plenty of time on the clock, and if you’re not going to go for it on 4th-and-1 earlier in the quarter, why 4th-and-4 here with a backup quarterback and shoddy offensive line?

---

Score: 28-14 N.C. State

Time Remaining: 7:33

Spot: FSU 25

Yards to gain: 10

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 58-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +0.0%

Comment:

Down two touchdowns with under eight minutes to go. If you went for it on 4th-and-4 in a one score game, why punt now?

---

Score: 28-14 N.C. State

Time Remaining: 1:49

Spot: NCSt. 49

Yards to gain: 8

Actual Decision: Go for it.

Result: Milton pass intended for Jordan Young complete for a loss of 3 yards. Turnover on downs.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.4%

Comment:

No-brainer.

FSU vs. Miami, November 13th, 2021

FIRST QUARTER

Score: 7-0 FSU

Time Remaining: 7:15

Spot: FSU 19

Yards to gain: 7

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 41-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.9%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 7-0 FSU

Time Remaining: 1:30

Spot: FSU 43

Yards to gain: 10

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 33-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.7%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

SECOND QUARTER

Score: 14-0 FSU

Time Remaining: 12:46

Spot: UM 4

Yards to gain: 4

Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal

Result: Fitzgerald 22-yard field goal attempt GOOD.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -0.5%

Comment:

Totally disagree with the bot. Push the lead to three scores. Good call Norvell.

---

Score: 17-0 FSU

Time Remaining: 5:51

Spot: UM 34

Yards to gain: 7

Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal

Result: Fitzgerald 52-yard field goal attempt NO GOOD.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -0.6%

Comment: No-man’s land. Value of pushing the margin to 20 is not worth the long kick from a pretty average kicker. Go for it.

---

Score: 17-7 FSU

Time Remaining: 0:02

Spot: UM 9

Yards to gain: 2

Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal

Result: Fitzgerald 27-yard field goal attempt GOOD.

Bot says: Kick FG

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.0%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

THIRD QUARTER

Score: 20-7 FSU

Time Remaining: 12:57

Spot: FSU 39

Yards to gain: 10

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 51-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +0.2%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 20-14 FSU

Time Remaining: 3:56

Spot: UM 37

Yards to gain: 10

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 34-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: -0.2%

Comment:

No-man’s land again. If you’re going to punt, execute it like this. Downed at the three-yard line.

---

FOURTH QUARTER

Score: 28-20 Miami

Time Remaining: 14:00

Spot: FSU 33

Yards to gain: 2

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 40-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -3.8%

Comment:

Tough call. Agree with punt.

---

Score: 28-20 Miami

Time Remaining: 8:50

Spot: FSU 45

Yards to gain: 1

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Travis rush for 1 yard. First down.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.9%

Comment: No-brainer.

---

Score: 28-20 Miami

Time Remaining: 4:44

Spot: UM 12

Yards to gain: 3

Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal

Result: Fitzgerald 29-yard field goal attempt GOOD.

Bot says: Go for it

Bot Win Probability Change: -1.2%

Comment:

Tough call. Right call.

---

Score: 28-23 Miami

Time Remaining: 1:02

Spot: UM 25

Yards to gain: 14

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Travis to Parchment. Rivalry history is made on a 25-yard gain.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: +5.6%

Comment:

No-brainer. Doak goes wild.

FSU at Boston College, November 20th, 2021

FIRST QUARTER

Score: 0-0

Time Remaining: 8:46

Spot: BC 39

Yards to gain: 24

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 38-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +3.4%

Comment:

No-brainer. Excellent punt coverage.

---

SECOND QUARTER

Score: 14-3 FSU

Time Remaining: 2:32

Spot: BC 49

Yards to gain: 11

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.1%

Comment: No-brainer.

---

Score: 16-3 FSU

Time Remaining: 0:55

Spot: BC 18

Yards to gain: 7

Actual Decision: Kick Field Goal

Result: Fitzgerald 36-yard field goal attempt GOOD.

Bot says: Kick FG

Bot Win Probability Change: +1.2%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 19-3 FSU

Time Remaining: 0:05

Spot: FSU 9

Yards to gain: 21

Actual Decision: Go for it

Result: Intentional incompletion to run out clock.

Bot says: Kick FG

Bot Win Probability Change: +0%

Comment:

Bot glitch!

---

THIRD QUARTER

Score: 26-10 FSU

Time Remaining: 3:05

Spot: BC 39

Yards to gain: 10

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 35-yard punt

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +0.2%

Comment:

This came on the heels of a bad illegal formation call. Refs were miserable. Good choice to just pin B.C. down.

---

FOURTH QUARTER

Score: 26-16 FSU

Time Remaining: 12:03

Spot: FSU 26

Yards to gain: 9

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 39-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +5.4%

Comment:

Good choice. Terrible “unnecessary roughness” call on punt returner.

---

Score: 26-23 FSU

Time Remaining: 8:05

Spot: FSU 42

Yards to gain: 6

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 47-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.1%

Comment:

Delay of game penalty on the 4th-and-1 situation. At six yards, kick it.

FSU at Florida, November 27th, 2021

FIRST QUARTER

Score: 7-0 Florida

Time Remaining: 8:58

Spot: FSU 30

Yards to gain: 16

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 15-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.7%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 7-0 Florida

Time Remaining: 3:27

Spot: FSU 34

Yards to gain: 29

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 62-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +4.0%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

SECOND QUARTER

Score: 7-0 Florida

Time Remaining: 13:16

Spot: FSU 35

Yards to gain: 18

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 40-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +2.7%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

THIRD QUARTER

Score: 7-7

Time Remaining: 13:51

Spot: FSU 34

Yards to gain: 11

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 35-yard punt.

Bot says: Punt

Bot Win Probability Change: +3.3%

Comment:

No-brainer.

---

Score: 10-7 Florida

Time Remaining: 7:34

Spot: UF 36

Yards to gain: 16

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 35-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -0.2%

Comment:

16 yards is a lot. Definitely speaks to how Norvell was feeling about Fitzgerald that day.

---

FOURTH QUARTER

Score: 24-14 Florida

Time Remaining: 5:22

Spot: FSU 18

Yards to gain: 9

Actual Decision: Punt

Result: Mastromanno 48-yard punt.

Bot says: Go

Bot Win Probability Change: -0.1%

Comment:

Pretty much dealer’s choice.

Note: Stay tuned for a follow-up analysis on this topic.

Warchant's Austin Cox contributed to this report.

----------------------------------------------------

Talk about this story with other Florida State fans in the Tribal Council