After months of interminable waiting, Florida State football season is back in our lives.

The Seminoles take the field for a critical third season of Mike Norvell’s tenure Saturday at 5 p.m. (ACC Network). I think I speak for everyone reading this when I say it’s about time.

This the first edition of a new recurring series I’ll be doing for the Osceola called the Five-Step Drop. Over time, this may be a few different things, from observations to thoughts or analysis. For this introductory column, it’s five predictions I’m making about the upcoming FSU football season.

I made this prediction last year at my previous job. When the Seminoles averaged 5.35 or more yards per carry in six of their first seven games, I thought I was a genius. But the brutal back stretch of that season dropped FSU all the way to 4.78 yards per carry, a good bit worse than the team’s 5.11 yards it averaged in 2020.

I’m doubling down this year. Since that 2013 season for the ages, FSU has surpassed five yards per carry in three seasons. However, none of them was especially close to the 5.63 yards FSU averaged per rush in 2013.

The schedule is tough and this won’t be easy to accomplish. But I feel good about this for a few reasons.

For one, FSU’s run game has had quite a bit of success the past two seasons even when there were significant questions about FSU’s offensive line and wide receiver unit. Seeing as both of those position groups seem notably improved entering 2022, I think that will do wonders for what the running game can accomplish.

It also helps that FSU has three running backs who I believe could be in line for big seasons. Oregon transfer Trey Benson has looked like his pre-injury self again this offseason, running fast and hard. Lawrance Toafili was dubbed Norvell’s most improved player this preseason and looks ready to bounce back after an injury-plagued 2021 season. Treshaun Ward has also impressed this preseason and is probably in line to receive the first carry of the unit.

Add in what quarterback Jordan Travis can do in the run game – even if he’s looking to prove he doesn’t have to rely on his legs – and you have what should be a lethal ground attack this season.

It’s definitely the statistic I’m most tired of reciting ad nauseum, but it remains a humbling fact. FSU hasn’t yet had a 400-yard receiver in Norvell’s two seasons atop the program.

It’s not a problem with his offense – he had a receiver record over 1,100 yards in each of his four seasons at Memphis – but more of a problem with the talent he inherited in that room. FSU has lacked a difference maker at receiver capable of turning any play into a big play.

The FSU coaching staff definitely made a point of addressing this, adding four wideouts through the transfer portal this offseason. But from all I saw, I wasn’t convinced any of them would be able to be consistent enough to make a difference.

Suffice it to say, that changed this preseason. Johnny Wilson looks like no one else in that room at 6-foot-7 and seems to have moved past the drop issues that plagued him in the spring, showing himself to be a lethal red-zone threat and a constant open-field target.

Mycah Pittman may be listed at just 5-foot-11, but his toughness helps him play above that size and he has shown a knack for making difficult catches. Deuce Spann was a high-school quarterback who spent just one season at wide receiver at Illinois before transferring. After he was extraordinarily raw in the spring, he now looks ready for a role this fall and has unmatched speed among FSU’s wide receivers.

Some veterans like Malik McClain and Kentron Poitier have also risen to the occasion of their playing time being challenged.

It’s a real shame that West Virginia transfer Winston Wright Jr. suffered a severe leg injury in a car accident in the spring and is still rehabbing his way back for a hopeful return later this season. He would have been the No. 1 target FSU has been missing at wide receiver.

But despite his absence, I’ve seen enough to believe that FSU will have a few wideouts step up and surpass not just 400 receiving yards but 500 this season, giving the team some necessary balance.

The loss of ACC Defensive Player of the Year Jermaine Johnson is definitely felt by the FSU defense.

Johnson’s one-year impact was remarkable as he carried the defense early in the season when other segments were struggling and seemed to be at his best when the opposition was most challenging.

For all FSU’s early-season issues on defense, it was a pretty formidable unit by season’s end.

The good news for FSU is although it loses Johnson and Keir Thomas, it brings back just about everyone else from last year’s defense. There’s cause for real optimism at defensive tackle and in the secondary and the linebacker unit could stand to have a bit more depth but is very impressive on the two-deep.

At defensive end, FSU likely won’t have an edge-rusher as singularly impactful as Johnson, but it does have a group of contributors who could come at least somewhat close together. If that happens, there’s real reason to believe FSU could have the third-best defense in the ACC behind Clemson and NC State. And there’s also reason to believe FSU could once again have multiple defensive players on the first-team All-ACC squad come December.

Safety Jammie Robinson is the likeliest candidate after making All-ACC first team last year in his first season with the Seminoles. As for another person, there are quite a few candidates. UCF linebacker transfer Tatum Bethune may top that list after amassing more than 100 tackles last year for the Knights. Or maybe one of FSU’s veteran defensive tackles takes that next step in their progression. Or another FSU defensive back could make a case for first-team All-ACC, with the likeliest options being Omarion Cooper or Akeem Dent.

All that to say, there are quite a few candidates.

When Norvell took over at Memphis ahead of the 2016 season, he found out how long it had been since the Tigers had returned a kickoff for a touchdown and told the team it would happen in his first season.

He was proven right in the fifth game of his debut season when Tony Pollard scored the Tigers’ first kick return touchdown since 1996 against Temple. Memphis had two more kickoff return touchdowns that season and 11 in all over Norvell’s four seasons there along with two punt return touchdowns.

Norvell didn’t make any sort of similar promise when he arrived at FSU. It’s probably for the best he didn’t as the Seminoles’ special teams have struggled to get going throughout his tenure despite a significant amount of time the team spends on them at each practice.

After these struggles, I think this is the year that hard work pays off. FSU hasn’t returned a kickoff for a touchdown since Kermit Whitfield’s unforgettable return in the national championship victory over Auburn in January 2014. FSU hasn’t returned a punt for a touchdown since 2016. I believe at least one of those changes this season.

A side benefit of quite a few of the transfers FSU has added is that it has revitalized the Seminoles’ return game. Spann seems poised to be quite a weapon as a kick returner. Pittman is similarly prepared to rejuvenate FSU’s punt return game. If Wright Jr. manages to make it back this season and works as a kick returner, he took one back for a touchdown last season at West Virginia.

I’m not predicting when it happens, but I will say Saturday’s season opener is probably one of the likelier bets. What a start to the Seminoles’ potential special teams turnaround that could be.

Through Norvell’s first two seasons, his “Climb” motto has been just that for the FSU football program. The Seminoles have suffered two straight losing seasons and amassing an 8-13 record.

But even despite these struggles, FSU has managed to pull off signature wins in each of his first two seasons. In 2020, the Seminoles stunned No. 5 North Carolina with a 31-28 home win. Last year, FSU again pulled a major upset of UNC, this time on the road, and also came away with an upset win over Miami, snapping the Hurricanes’ four-year winning streak in the rivalry.

Considering FSU is undeniably more talented this season, it’s safe to believe FSU will again have a signature win. To make the prediction a bit more challenging, I’m expecting them to have at least two wins of this magnitude this season.

The LSU game in New Orleans is a prime spot to secure one of those early in the season. Pulling what would likely be significant upsets over either NC State or Clemson in successive weeks would also qualify. Or maybe it will be extending the rivalry streak to Miami over two straight wins or snapping Florida’s three-game winning streak in a different rivalry.

Whatever the signature wins are, they would go a long way towards the fan base believing in Norvell as a long-term option even if the Seminoles’ win total this season doesn’t meet their expectations.

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