Five-Step Drop: Reassessing Florida State's next five opponents

The sample sizes remain somewhat small, but there have still been plenty of takeaways from being able to observe a few games from each of these teams.

In this edition of the Five-Step Drop, I’m reassessing each of FSU’s next five opponents – which lead up to the team’s second bye Oct. 22 – two games into their seasons.

Louisville (Sept. 16, on the road)

The Cardinals entered the season in a somewhat similar situation to the Seminoles.

Fourth-year coach Scott Satterfield’s team needs to show signs of growth in his fourth season or his job may be in severe danger. With this in mind, a 31-7 road loss at Syracuse in Week 1 was about as bad a start as possible.

U of L bounced back with a much-needed 20-14 road win at UCF on Friday night and now returns for a Friday night home opener against the Seminoles.

Although improving their coach’s stature for the time being with the win, it definitely hasn’t been an ideal start to the season. And a loss to FSU likely puts Satterfield right back on the hot seat.

After he averaged over 225 yards with 19 passing touchdowns and six interceptions last season, veteran Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham has not yet thrown a touchdown in 2022. He had two interceptions vs. Syracuse and hasn’t yet surpassed 200 passing yards in a game this season.

Cunningham’s saving grace so far this season has been his 155 rushing yards, 121 of which came against UCF. While he has more than 2,600 career rushing yards, he’s never rushed for more than 56 yards in three games against the Seminoles.

Running back Tiyon Evans has received a large portion of the running back reps, amassing 164 yards while averaging 5.13 yards per carry through two games.

Part of U of L’s passing struggles is that the Cardinals have allowed five sacks through two games despite having a very mobile quarterback, three coming against Syracuse and two against UCF.

On defense, the Cardinals have been particularly susceptible to the ground game. They’ve allowed exactly 208 rushing yards and two touchdowns in each of their first two games this season. Louisville’s 5.33 yards per carry allowed so far this season are by far the worst in the ACC, over half a yard worse then the next-worst team.

Although FSU’s run game was largely bottled up against LSU, Friday’s matchup seems to present a chance for the Seminoles’ three-headed running back attack to break out once more.

More or less likely to be an FSU win now compared to start of season? More

Boston College (Sept. 24, at home)

Through two weeks of the season, Boston College has been the ACC’s biggest disappointment.

After winning six games in both of Jeff Hafley’s first two seasons, the Eagles are off to an 0-2 start. That includes a home loss to Rutgers as a nearly-double-digit favorite and a road loss at Virginia Tech that wasn’t as close as the 27-10 score indicates.

An entirely new offensive line unit has not yet found much success, allowing nine sacks through two games, tied for the most among Power Five teams.

While returning quarterback Phil Jurkovec does have 418 passing yards and four touchdowns, he’s also thrown three interceptions. That’s already approaching the five picks he threw in 10 games in 2020.

Even more of a condemnation of BC’s OL is the fact that the Eagles have just 33 rushing yards so far this season and are averaging 0.61 yards per carry.

Preseason All-ACC wide receiver Zay Flowers has 196 receiving yards and two touchdowns in as many games. But little else is going right for the Eagles’ offense.

Defensively, BC has allowed just 250 passing yards and one passing touchdown through two games. However, that secondary hasn’t faced an especially strong passing quarterback yet this season and won’t until the game at FSU in two weeks.

On the ground, BC has allowed 356 rushing yards and five touchdowns early this season. Rutgers ran for 202 yards and over five yards per carry against the Eagles, paving the path for FSU to have similar success on the ground.

More or less likely to be an FSU win now compared to start of season? More

Wake Forest (Oct. 1, at home)

When news broke that Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman would be sidelined indefinitely due to a non-football medical issue, it changed the outlook of the Seminoles’ game against the Demon Deacons.

However, Hartman was cleared to return last week from what was announced to be a blood clot in his subclavian vein, near his heart. While the news of his return was relieving considering how scary the original news sounded, it makes a path to victory over the Demon Deacons a good bit harder than with Hartman out.

Hartman didn’t seem to have missed a beat in his season debut Saturday against Vanderbilt, completing 18 of 27 passes for 300 yards with four touchdowns in a 45-25 win. Preseason All-ACC wideout A.T. Perry definitely welcomed Hartman’s return, recording five catches for 142 yards and a touchdown against the Commodores.

Defensively, it’s hard to read too much into wins over VMI and Vanderbilt. The Demon Deacons are allowing 2.97 yards per carry and have allowed just 320 passing yards per game. After a game against Liberty this weekend, we’ll learn more about this Wake Forest defense when the team hosts Clemson on Sept. 24, the week before it plays at FSU.

More or less likely to be an FSU win now compared to start of season? Less

NC State (Oct. 8, on road)

NC State began the season as a trendy ACC Atlantic pick. It has done nothing to dissuade that possibility through two weeks, although it did need a minor miracle to survive ECU in Week 1.

The Wolfpack is 2-0 with wins over the Pirates and FCS Charleston Southern.

Quarterback Devin Leary has looked exactly as effective as expected with 449 passing yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Even with the departure of an elite offensive tackle to the NFL Draft, NC State has allowed only one sack. The Wolfpack’s balanced receiver unit has led to having no 100-yard receiver through two games despite the team having over 600 passing yards.

NC State’s defense has lived up to the hype of being perhaps the best in the ACC, with twice as many interceptions (4) as passing touchdowns allowed (2) and allowing 3.62 yards per carry. One thing to keep an eye on is that NC State’s defense has just one sack through a pair of games against a Group of Five opponent and an FCS opponent.

There’s been no glaring weakness that would lead one to believe FSU has improved its somewhat slim odds of winning at NC State in early October. However, we’ll know a bit more after the next few weeks where the Wolfpack takes on Texas Tech, UConn and Clemson before hosting the Seminoles.

We’ll also know more by then about exactly how consistent the Seminoles are.

More or less likely to be an FSU win now compared to start of season? Push

Clemson (Oct. 15, at home)

Clemson, one of the more intriguing college football storylines entering the 2022 season, hasn’t disappointed through the first two weeks.

The Tigers had a bit of a Week 1 battle on their hands as big road favorites at Georgia Tech before pulling away for a comfortable victory. Then, the Tigers coasted to a 35-12 win over Furman in a game where Clemson was narrowly outgained by an FCS opponent (384 to 376).

Two weeks into a season with new offensive and defensive coordinators, there are still quite a few questions surrounding the Tigers.

Many fans and media members expected true freshman quarterback Cade Klubnik to usurp returning starter DJ Uiagalelei, much like Trevor Lawrence did to Kelly Bryant at Clemson in 2018. While Uiagalelei hasn’t been setting the world on fire, he seems improved enough that he may keep the job. If he does until at least the FSU game in mid-October, that could be an advantage for FSU as Klubnik has quite impressive potential.

Clemson’s offensive line remains an issue, which doesn’t help whoever is under center. Through games against an ACC bottom-dweller and an FCS opponent, the Tigers have allowed four sacks and are averaging just 3.91 yards per carry.

Defensively, the Tigers have been a bit susceptible through the air, allowing 420 yards, 256 of which came from Furman quarterback Tyler Huff. Clemson’s run defense is allowing 3.09 yards per carry and 100.5 rushing yards per game. Those yard-per-game measures rank 9th and 6th among ACC competition, respectively.

All that to say, Clemson’s defense is very talented but may be showing some signs of still acclimating to a new defensive coordinator.

How the Tigers progress over the next four weeks before their game in Tallahassee will determine the likelihood of FSU being able to snap its six-game losing streak to the Tigers.

More or less likely to be an FSU win now compared to start of season? Slightly more

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