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Five Takes: Tallahassee, we have a problem

1. Tallahassee, we have a problem 

Going into Saturday, I honestly felt that Florida State would bounce back after the N.C. State debacle and post an impressive victory. Clearly, the three-week layoff had the ‘Noles out of sync and a series of odd bounces and questionable officiating played a major role in the upset loss. I also thought all the talk of this being a four- or five- or even a six-loss season was a knee-jerk overreaction by fans and media.

Maybe not.

Instead of turning in a “statement game” as Landon Dickerson predicted last week, FSU had to hold on by the skin of its teeth to eke out its first win of the season. With so much at stake, it sure didn’t look like the offensive line was stepping up to protect its freshman quarterback, or that the defense was playing with a sense of urgency. With what we saw on the field, it’s hard to believe that FSU started seven players that were rated as five-star recruits coming out of high school compared to zero for Wake Forest. In fact, the Deacons didn’t even have a single four-star player in their starting lineup.

We’ve seen Jimbo Fisher teams rally against the odds before, but there’s a different feel about this group. Despite having its collective backs against the wall of BB&T Field, the Seminoles showed little urgency or focus. More importantly, they clearly didn’t play like a team worthy of a top-10, or even-20, ranking.

I get that FSU was thrown a major curveball when offensive leader Deondre Francois went down with a season-ending injury. But elite programs find a way to step up when dealt a bad hand. Unless there’s a miraculous turnaround, this isn’t an elite program right now, and may not even be a good one.

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2. Blocking is really, really awful

In the Captain Obvious take of the week, Florida State has real issues when it comes to blocking. The inability to lay a hat on anybody was on full display this past Saturday. The Demon Deacons racked up a whopping 17 tackles for loss. Throw in another five plays that went for no gain, and FSU’s offense failed to pick up a positive yard on more than one-third of its offensive plays (22 of 64 - 34.4%).

With numbers like that, it’s amazing that FSU was able to score any points.

Granted, losing starting left tackle Derrick Kelly on the first offensive series, and later Landon Dickerson, was a blow to the offensive line. But it’s not like this wasn’t already a problem before Saturday. It’s true that this is a relatively young offensive line and that center Alec Eberle was the only player with more than a full year of starting experience coming into this season. But having an inexperienced and underachieving offensive line has been a recurring theme for FSU several years running now. Enough is enough. A change is needed, and it really isn’t debatable at this stage.

How has poor blocking impacted FSU’s offensive production? Check out these shocking FBS rankings (out of 130 teams):

· Tied No. 126 in third-down conversions (28.6%)

· No. 127 on scoring touchdowns when reaching the red zone (25%)

· No. 127 in sacks allowed (4 per game)

· No. 130 in tackles for loss allowed (10.3 per game)

· No. 116 in scoring offense (18 points per game)

· No. 122 in rushing offense (97.7 yards per game)

· No. 119 in total offense (303 yards per game)

3. Special teams were special again

It’s hard to believe that the weakest unit in FSU’s season-opening loss to Alabama has been the team strength in the last two games. Once again on Saturday, the special teams came through with flying colors.

First, Ricky Aguayo kept FSU in the game all afternoon with his pinpoint field goal kicking, hitting a perfect 4-of-4 including a 51-yarder. And while punting wasn’t perfect with one shank for 10 yards, Logan Tyler did average over 45 yards on his other five punts. That’s a far cry from the duo’s horrific start against Alabama.

The rest of the special teams produced as well. For the second straight week, the Seminoles turned in a long kick return. Trailing 12-3 in the second quarter, and the game potentially slipping away, Keith Gavin returned a kickoff 81 yards to the Wake Forest 16-yard line. With momentum finally in hand, the ‘Noles scored their first touchdown of the day to cut the Deacons’ lead to 12-10.

And if not for an iffy blocking-in-the-back call, Derwin James would have had a 100-plus-yard return for a touchdown on the opening play of the game. Had the flag not been thrown, Saturday’s game could have easily gone a very different direction, and there might not be as much hand-wringing going on among the Seminole faithful.

4. Is this the week the streak ends?

Again, absent an astonishing turnaround, the early signs point to this being the most disappointing season in the Jimbo Fisher era. In prior years, such as 2016, the one saving grace was FSU’s dominance over its in-state rivals. You’ve seen the numbers before, but it’s worth repeating: Since 2010, the ‘Noles are a combined 13-1 against Miami and Florida.

Retaining bragging rights in the state of Florida may be all that’s legitimately left on the table for the ‘Noles in 2017. The most impressive aspect of the recent run is the streak of seven straight victories against Miami. This weekend’s battle with the Hurricanes has special significance since an eighth straight win would set a new record in the series and would also tie the all-time record between the two rivals at 31 wins each.

But for the first time since the seven-game streak began, most are predicting a Miami victory. And it’s hard to argue otherwise considering how lethargic the ‘Noles have been on both sides of the ball. Combine that with UM coming off an impressive 31-6 win at Duke, and the signs point to a changing of the guard in the state of Florida.

The remaining hope is that being in Doak Campbell Stadium against an in-state rival will inspire this team to play up to its full potential. Until the special-teams breakdowns in game one, FSU looked like a top-10 program against Alabama. If there’s any hope of salvaging 2017 and keeping the run of in-state dominance alive, Fisher will have to find a way to recapture the fire from game one and get his players to snap out of their current funk.

5. Defense still lackluster but maybe signs of life

Instead of the usual weekly rundown of FSU’s stats, which are sobering to say the least (see Take No. 2), let’s take a look at FSU’s underachieving defense.

For a second straight game, the ultra-talented Florida State defense turned in another ho-hum effort. Wake Forest, which ranks No. 63 nationally in total offense, posted 19 points, 367 total yards, 17 first downs and mounted three scoring drives of over 50 yards each. That’s certainly not awful, but it’s a far cry from the preseason expectations of a dominating defense that was supposed to carry the Seminoles in 2017.

Wake Forest’s offensive totals also don’t add up when compared to the recent matchups between the two teams. Between 2012-16, the Deacons averaged just 5.6 point per game. The score total from Saturday was over three times higher than this average. In terms of yardage, Wake has averaged 205 yards of offense over the previous five games, but the Deacs were 160-plus yards better this time around.

As with the offensive line, an underachieving defense is becoming a recurring theme at Florida State. A fundamental change is inevitable, right?

If there’s a bright side, it’s that the defense did show signs of life down the stretch. After a 59-yard touchdown drive late in the third/early fourth quarter put the Deacons back in the lead, the Seminole defense forced three straight three-and-outs. These quick turnarounds by the defense gave the offense good field position, which helped FSU post 10 fourth-quarter points, which ultimately decided the outcome.

Also, for the first time in three games, FSU’s defense forced turnovers. Both times, it was sophomore defensive back Kyle Meyers coming through, recording an interception in the second quarter and forcing a fumble in the third quarter when Wake Forest was in scoring position.

Were the forced turnovers and late-game three-and-outs a sign of a defensive turnaround? It’s too soon to tell, but if it is, it might be just in time to salvage the season.

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Talk about this story with other Florida State football fans in the Tribal Council

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