In terms of returning production, a lot has changed in a year's time for the Florida State football program.
In Bill Connelly's ranking of returning production for college football teams last February, the 2023 Seminoles, who saw quite a few players delay their NFL careers for one final season together, ranked No. 1 out of 133 FBS teams, returning 87% of their production.
That FSU team ranked second in returning defensive production at 94% and 12th in returning offensive production at 80%.
Connelly shared his 2024 returning production rankings on ESPN's website Monday morning. It's not surprising given all FSU has to replace, but the 2024 Seminoles rank No. 83 out of 134 FBS teams in returning production this offseason at 58%.
The FSU defense ranks 62nd with a 60% returning production rate while the offense ranks 81st at 56%.
Considering all FSU has lost, it's fairly surprising that FSU doesn't find itself closer to the bottom of the list. This is certainly because Connelly's formula adds what any FBS transfer additions did last season at their previous school to their new school's returning production.
In the article, he used FSU as an example saying, "Take Florida State, for instance. The Seminoles lost Jordan Travis to expired eligibility and saw second-stringer Tate Rodemaker enter the transfer portal. That duo accounted for about 93% of FSU's passing yards in 2023, but because Mike Norvell earned a commitment from Oregon State's DJ Uiagalelei, his 2,638 passing yards are now plugged into both sides of the equation, and FSU's 'returns' 49% of its passing yardage."
Essentially, FSU's large portal class of 14 transfer additions who have joined the program this semester is helping counter-act the numerous significant losses FSU has faced.
For those who are curious, here's the formula Connelly is currently using to calculate returning production on both sides of the ball:
Offense
Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 23.5% of the overall number
Percent of returning QB passing yards: 24%
Percent of returning OL snaps: 47.5%
Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 5%
Defense
Percent of returning tackles: 69.5%
Percent of returning passes defensed (intercepted or broken up): 12%
Percent of returning tackles for loss: 10.5%
Percent of returning sacks: 8%
Connelly, unsurprisingly, listed FSU as one of his four teams most likely to regress in 2024 based on where FSU finished in 2023 SP+ and its returning production for the upcoming season.
Here's his FSU blurb:
The saga of 2023 FSU has been well-documented by now. The Seminoles went 13-0 in the regular season but were spurned of a CFP bid because of an injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and some spectacular CFP committee groupthink. A wave of opt-outs then left them severely shorthanded in the Orange Bowl, and they suffered a record-setting blowout at Georgia's hands. It was unfortunate for any number of reasons, and when you lose a bunch of bowl opt-outs, it stands to reason you're going to have a lot of overall production to replace the next season.
Coach Mike Norvell has done a nice job of reloading in the transfer portal -- he's been one of the most consistently strong portal recruiters in the country in recent years -- and it's a bit of a victory that the Noles rank in the 80s in returning production. But 2024 will still be a bit of a reloading year.
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