FSU making a run at the No. 1 recruiting class
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With last week's commitment of five-star defensive end Josh Sweat, the Seminoles are closing in on one of the best recruiting classes in program history.
Florida State is currently at No. 2 in the Rivals.com recruiting rankings with 21 verbal commitments. That number will likely rise as National Signing Day approaches, and there's nowhere for FSU's ranking to go but up. That's because the Seminoles are still actively recruiting a dozen or so uncommitted prospects, with most being rated as high four-star or five-star recruits. At 2,684 total points in Rivals.com's ranking system, FSU is just 160 points behind Alabama for the top spot.
Surpassing the Crimson Tide for No. 1 could be a tall order, but it's not totally out of the question.
"We had long thought that Alabama was a lock for No. 1 this year, but FSU's off-the-charts recruiting and the fact they are involved with so many top players down the stretch has made this compelling," said Mike Farrell, national recruiting director for Rivals.com. "Unfortunately for FSU fans, Alabama is in on as many top guys down the stretch as the 'Noles, so it's hard to predict how it will shake out. Keep in mind that the best 20 count - and only the best 20 - so a lot could change in the many weeks. If FSU can push a few more of their three-star commits outside of their best 20, and add guys like Byron Cowart, Neville Gallimore, Davante Phillips and Terry Becker Jr., they will make a nice push."
In addition to a No. 2 overall class ranking, Florida State currently has the highest average star rating of any school at 3.95. With a handful of five-star recruits still in the mix, that number could push even higher by Feb. 4. Should one or more five-star prospect come FSU's way, the 2015 class could finish with an average star rating of four or higher.
To put that into perspective, only one school in the last 10 years (USC in 2010) has cracked the 4.0 figure for a class. In 2002, FSU's 23-member class finished with six five-star commitments and an average star rating of 4.09. One more five-star commitment, or a current commitment getting bumped up to a fifth star, could push FSU's current average to this elite level.
One of the keys for FSU's final ranking could be how wide receiver George Campbell performs in the Jan. 2 Under Armour All-America game. The 6-foot-3, 183-pound receiver moved up 43 spots in the latest rankings and is just two spots away from achieving coveted five-star status.
"George Campbell needs to have a great week at Under Armour to get that fifth star back," said Farrell, "just essentially show that the inconsistency with his hands is gone from his game, and that would help as well ... I love his senior film and was in the very small minority that he should be a five-star again when we re-did rankings. He's a long strider who reminds me a bit of Dwayne Jarrett, who starred at USC -- their film is very similar. The only issue is that Jarrett had great hands, and Campbell has been inconsistent.
"I think all of us, the entire analyst team, have seen Campbell drop so many passes at camp after camp and on earlier game film that he needs to show us that his case of the dropsies is gone at UA."
The other factor will be how FSU finishes with the handful of top-rated prospects still on its radar. One of the big fish remaining is the nation's No. 1 rated defensive end, Byron Cowart. After last weekend's state championship game, the Tampa native said he will take his final three official visits to Auburn, Florida and Florida State. Alabama could also be in the mix, but most feel it will come down to the Seminoles or Gators. If FSU can land Cowart, he would join Sweat and give the 'Noles arguably the nation's top two defensive ends at a position of need.
"Landing Cowart would be huge because of the perception that Armwood kids simply go to Florida or out of state and never go to FSU," Farrell said. "Not only could they use his ability off the edge and as well as his strength against the run, but they can show every kid in the state of Florida that pipelines don't matter and the big-name kids aren't afraid to break them."
An X-factor in FSU's final ranking could be five-star cornerback Iman Marshall. The nation's No. 1-rated cornerback said he always planned to officially visit but until recently there wasn't much of an expectation on FSU's part. That has changed recently, and there are now rumblings that the Seminoles have a real shot at pulling the nation's No. 4 overall player from the West Coast. Marshall is scheduled to visit FSU the weekend of Jan. 16.
Finally, there are three five-star recruits currently committed to other schools that Florida State is still actively recruiting. Alabama cornerback commitment Minkah Fitzpatrick has stayed in regular contact with the Seminole coaching staff, fueling rumors that he might be rethinking his pledge to the Tide. Fellow Alabama commitment Calvin Ridley, the nation's No. 1-rated wide receiver, visited FSU under the radar last weekend. LSU cornerback commitment Kevin Toliver II has shown renewed interest in FSU over the past couple months and made an official visit in October. Rumors are swirling that the nation's No. 4 cornerback is seriously rethinking his commitment.
"I also think a big surprise is needed, like flipping Minkah Fitzpatrick or Kevin Toliver II or Calvin Ridley," Farrell said of FSU's chances to overtake Alabama in the recruiting rankings. "A five-star flip like that, coupled with 'Bama missing on a few kids down the stretch, and FSU could be No. 1."
"I look at the 2012 recruiting class for FSU as the best on paper for Jimbo; it fell out of the top five simply because they signed 19, and we rank the top 20 for each school so they were at a major disadvantage," explained Farrell. "I think last year's class is a close second, and this year's class could end up being better than both in the long run. It's an amazing run, and FSU is recruiting on a level only Alabama can touch right now. It's certainly fun to watch, and betting against the 'Noles for anyone isn't a smart idea."
Trying to compare 2015 to the classes before 2002 is a near impossibility.
The 1993 recruiting class, which included 11 high school All-Americans, is generally considered the program's top all-time class. That group was highlighted by players such as Peter Boulware, Daryl Bush, Andre Cooper, Sam Cowart, Warrick Dunn, Reinard Wilson and Scott Bentley. The 1993 class may never be matched, but the 2015 class could end up being mentioned in the same breath.
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