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Ham-alytics: Breaking down 'Round 2' for FSU and North Carolina basketball

With due respect to Notre Dame and Boston College, Florida State's regular-season schedule has one headliner remaining: North Carolina.

Though the Tar Heels laid an egg in an 83-70 loss to Marquette on Wednesday night, they are capable of providing the No. 9 Seminoles with a significant challenge in Chapel Hill (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, on ESPN), just as they did in Tallahassee last month. Add in fan attendance for a critical game – the Tar Heels are planning to allow about 3,000 fans, for the first time all season – and one can reasonably expect an atmosphere of desperation.

As we prepare for Round Two of FSU-UNC, today’s Ham-alytics breaks down the teams’ first game, examines North Carolina’s top sharp-shooter and provides insights from Synergy Sports throughout.

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Florida State center Balsa Koprivica looks to work inside against North Carolina's stingy front-court defense during the teams' first meeting.
Florida State center Balsa Koprivica looks to work inside against North Carolina's stingy front-court defense during the teams' first meeting. (Mike Olivella/FSU Sports Information)
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Florida State 82, North Carolina 75 – Jan. 16, 2021

Though the Seminoles held the lead for most of the afternoon, North Carolina stayed within striking distance until the final moments. Playing without the services of star freshman Scottie Barnes, Florida State won with efficient shooting beyond the arc (8-of-16) and exceptional work at the free-throw line (26-of-27). Among the Tar Heels’ successes: Forcing 17 Seminole turnovers and hitting 10 three-pointers of their own.

First, let’s take a look at where FSU did its damage via Synergy’s heat map:

Florida State Offensive Heat Map in its win over UNC on 1/16/21
Florida State Offensive Heat Map in its win over UNC on 1/16/21 (Synergy Sports)

Now, North Carolina’s offensive approach:

North Carolina Heat Map in its loss to FSU on 1/16/21
North Carolina Heat Map in its loss to FSU on 1/16/21 (Synergy Sports)

OBSERVATIONS

Of the Seminoles' 16 perimeter shots, 12 came from straight away or to the left of the basket. Around the rim, Florida State combined a 12-of-19 shooting afternoon with 20 drawn fouls (many of which came near the basket). As days in the paint go, Leonard Hamilton could not have drawn it up much more efficiently.

For the Heels, a solid effort from 3-point range and a stout performance in the mid-range offset a woeful day around the basket. Head coach Roy Williams will need better production from his post players the second time around.

Other notes:

* Florida State beat North Carolina on the boards (30-29) in paint points (24-22) and in transition points (18-6).

* The Tar Heels won the battle of the bench (29-17) and collected 13 offensive rebounds.

* 36 total fouls were called in the game, with 20 whistles going FSU’s way. The ‘Noles went to the line 27 times, compared to 14 for Carolina.

* In Barnes’ absence, junior Sardaar Calhoun logged the most court time for a non-starter (16:29), and he led Florida State in the plus-minus department with a plus-13.

* Of the Seminoles' eight made 3-pointers, six came from the hands of guard M.J. Walker and forward Malik Osborne -- two players whose health status is in question for Saturday. Walker led all scorers with 21 points on 11 shots from the field.

Player Spotlight: Kerwin Walton, Guard

A top-100 player in Rivals’ 2020 prospect rankings, the 6-foot-5 Walton has been lethal from long distance throughout his freshman season. In 13 conference games, the Minnesota native has converted 34 of 71 shots from distance (47.9 percent). Better still, since Feb. 1, Walton has hit 19 of his 37 3-point attempts (51.4 percent).

According to Synergy, Walton’s offensive efficiency is truly elite; he ranks among the top 4 percent of Division-I in knocking down spot-up looks, and he rests comfortably inside the top 10 percent in overall offense.

Walton’s heat map suggests a balanced repertoire the Seminoles will have to be keenly aware of:

Kerwin Walton Heat Map, 2020-21 Season (through games of 2/24/21)
Kerwin Walton Heat Map, 2020-21 Season (through games of 2/24/21) (Synergy Sports)

FAST FACTS - NORTH CAROLINA

* The Tar Heels' top-rated offensive category, once again, is offensive put-backs. This is the only category in which they are rated in the top third of Division-I (minimum 150 possessions). UNC narrowly edged the Seminoles in second-chance points, 14-11, in the teams' first matchup.

* North Carolina ranks in the top 12 percent nationally in both press offense and press defense.

* Roy Williams has built a team that can really defend in the post. The Heels rank ninth nationally in post defense, per Synergy.

* Through the games of Feb. 24, North Carolina ranked 50th in adjusted tempo per kenpom.com. The up-tempo approach is not rooted in transition efficiency, however, as the Tar Heels are in the bottom 12 percent of Division-I in both transition offense and defense.

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