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Published Jan 29, 2021
Ham-alytics: Calhoun's clout climbing, plus/minus figures and Ga. Tech
Tom Lang  •  TheOsceola
Director of Original Content
Twitter
@_TomLang

The good times keep rolling for the now-ranked Florida State men's basketball team (10-2, 6-1 ACC). These days, the nation’s No. 16 team wins big even when it looks a tad ugly at times, as evidenced by Wednesday’s 81-59 drubbing of rival Miami.

This week’s edition of Ham-alytics examines junior Sardaar Calhoun’s tantalizing talent, examines plus/minus figures for insights, and peeks ahead to the Seminoles’ second clash with Georgia Tech – a tilt that takes place Saturday in Atlanta (4 p.m. ET on ACC Network).

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The ‘Daar is ajar

In watching just a possession or two back in December, it was immediately clear JUCO transfer Sardaar Calhoun possessed the kind of springy athleticism reserved for a top-flight program like Florida State. The question was how patient was the FSU coaching staff going to be while Calhoun learned the Seminoles' defensive principles? The payoff of patience, head coach Leonard Hamilton said at the time, would be deploying one of the most talented scorers in program history.

Steadily since the COVID-caused break of early January, Calhoun is opening eyes in Tallahassee and across the league. Using Synergy Sports’ insights, let’s dive into the last five games to find where Calhoun is making his mark.

First, his heat map:

Now, the pinpoint shot chart (garnet dots are makes, gold are misses):

It should be immediately clear to opponents that Calhoun is not to be left alone near the corners; 6-for-7 shooting the past five games will earn the junior more looks in those hot spots. Of particular note is the right corner (bottom left of the map). Through the games of January 27, the right corner is the only perimeter zone in which Florida State is shooting worse than the national average. In limited minutes, Calhoun has already accounted for three of the Seminoles’ 12 makes from the right corner. Perhaps more attempts are on the way.

Speaking generally, Synergy loves Calhoun’s jump-shooting game. The 6-foot-6 native of Tappahannock, Va., ranks among the top 11 percent of Division-I in spot-up shots (1.226 points per possession). For right now, however, Synergy does not have enough attempts to analyze Calhoun’s driving and finishing ability around the basket. If recent flashes are any indication, that data is coming soon.

Plus/Minus – Who is Making the Difference?

As with all stats, plus/minus has its limits. One player in a five-man rotation could be doing everything right on both ends of the court, but fall victim to the shortcomings of his teammates. From the opposite perspective, a loaded roster like Florida State's can mask an individual's deficiencies.

But if one collects plus/minus figures over several games and multiple five-man lineups – in our case, let's use the five games since the COVID break – the picture becomes more reliable.

Ham-alytics HQ has done the math: Of the Seminoles who average north of 13 minutes a night, here is how they’ve performed the last handful of ACC games.

The steady M.J. Walker leads the way, but there's a lot to chew on here. In the most contested of the five games, an 82-75 win over North Carolina, Calhoun led the team with a plus-12 rating. Freshman Scottie Barnes has been productive off the bench and is ascending in plus/minus as his health returns. And junior Wyatt Wilkes turned in an impressive plus-32 in the three games he's had to step up for the injured Anthony Polite.

Again, while these numbers are not tell-alls, they can help shed light on consistent productivity on both ends of the court. It certainly stands to reason the pluses were going to be plentiful after this five-game Seminole surge.

Georgia Tech: Moses leads no longer

There’s no doubt senior Moses Wright was the focal point the first time Florida State and Georgia Tech (7-5, 3-3 ACC) met this season – a game the ‘Noles won 75-61 in Tallahassee. This time around, senior Jose Alvarado’s dominance in ACC play demands that he be the focal point.

In his fourth season at Tech, Alvarado has racked up 20 or more points in five of the Yellow Jackets’ last six games, including 26 points on 10-for-15 shooting in Tuesday’s 75-68 loss at Duke. In his last five ACC games, the senior is a staggering 37-for-58 (63.7 percent) from the field, including 11-for-22 (50 percent) from distance.

Synergy rates Alvarado in the top 20 percent of all Division-I players in transition efficiency, half-court offense, spot-up shooting, isolation and in the catch-and-shoot. Here is Alvarado’s heat map this season:

This map suggests nothing of Alvarado's tough night in Tallahassee. The loss to Florida State included just seven points from the senior, a season low.

Stat of the Week

Credit Ham-alytics' mega-researcher Chris Malagon with this nugget: Per Synergy, Florida State is now the No. 1 team in the nation at converting on guarded catch-and-shoot opportunities. In 105 contested catch-and-shoot situations, the Seminoles are producing at a 1.351 points per possession clip, tops in Division-I.

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