Advertisement
basketball Edit

Ham-alytics: Can FSU repeat in ACC? Scouting the top contenders

While it feels more like a college football game littered with replay reviews, Florida State’s start-and-stop men's basketball season is finally set to resume for the second time as the 17th-ranked Seminoles host Wake Forest Saturday afternoon (Noon ET, ACC Network Extra).

With less than a month remaining in the regular season, Ham-alytics shifts its eyes toward the ACC standings and the race for the conference championship.

If Florida State (6-2 ACC) is to finish back-to-back seasons atop the conference – assuming there’s a way to sort out the mess of uneven numbers of games played – here's a closer look at the four other contenders the ‘Noles will have to outduel in the coming weeks.

Virginia is likely the odds-on favorite right now with its sparkling league record, but Monday's showdown with the Seminoles in Tallahassee looms large.

*** Don't miss our exclusive FSU sports coverage. 30-day Free Trial***

M.J. Walker glides in for two points against Louisville earlier this season. The Cardinals are one of four main contenders challenging the Seminoles for ACC supremacy.
M.J. Walker glides in for two points against Louisville earlier this season. The Cardinals are one of four main contenders challenging the Seminoles for ACC supremacy. (Courtesy of Louisville Sports Information)
Advertisement

No. 9 Virginia (14-3, 10-1 ACC)

Upcoming Games

Feb. 13: vs. North Carolina, 6 p.m. ET

Feb. 15: at Florida State, 7 p.m. ET

Feb. 20: at Duke, 8 p.m. ET


OFFENSE - FAST FACTS

Overall: 2nd (1,073 possessions, 1.057 points per possession)

Half-court vs Man-to-Man: 1st (851 possessions, 1.038 points per possession)

Half-court vs Zone: 67th (149 possessions, 1.027 points per possession)

Transition Offense: 2nd (73 possessions, 1.342 points per possession)

Against Press: 30th (64 possessions, 1.062 points per possession)

Adjusted Tempo*: 357th (59.9 possessions/40 minutes)

*Per Kenpom.com


OFFENSE - HEAT MAP

Virginia Cavaliers Offensive Heat Map, Through games of Feb. 9th
Virginia Cavaliers Offensive Heat Map, Through games of Feb. 9th (Synergy Sports)

OBSERVATIONS

Not only does the Virginia offense bathe the shooting map in dark red, it is unbelievably efficient across all of Synergy’s advanced metrics. Name the play type – spot-ups, cuts, pick-and-roll, transition – and the Cavaliers find themselves in the top 10 percent of Division-I in efficiency.

The ultimate head-scratcher for head coach Tony Bennett’s club is tempo. Despite off-the-charts everything on offense, Virginia ranks dead last in the country in adjusted tempo.

Defensively, the Cavaliers are not up to their typical standards. Entering their Wednesday game in Atlanta, the Cavs ranked 171st in overall efficiency and an alarming 331st in transition efficiency. Aside from transition, the team’s biggest defensive weaknesses are against spot-up jumpers and cuts toward the basket.


Spotlight: Sam Hauser, forward

The 6-foot-8 senior joined Tony Bennett’s program in 2020 after three productive seasons at Marquette. Hauser arrived in Charlottesville having never shot worse than 45 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3-point range for a full season. Even with the bump up in competition, Hauser is on pace to finish his senior campaign comfortably ahead of those watermarks.

Synergy rates Hauser in the top 5 percent of Division-I in overall offensive efficiency, transition offense and in the post. Here is his individual offensive heat map through the games of Feb. 9. (Spoiler alert: Hauser knocks down looks from just about everywhere.)

Sam Hauser Heat Map, Through Games of Feb. 9
Sam Hauser Heat Map, Through Games of Feb. 9 (Synergy Sports)

No. 18 Virginia Tech (14-4, 8-3 ACC)

Upcoming Games

Feb. 13: vs. Louisville, PPD

Feb. 16: at North Carolina, 6 p.m. ET

Feb. 20: at Florida State, Noon ET


OFFENSE - FAST FACTS

Overall: 70th (1,367 possessions, .946 points per possession)

Half-court vs Man-to-Man: 34th (1060 possessions, .950 points per possession)

Half-court vs Zone: 199th (169 possessions, .893 points per possession)

Transition Offense: 231st (138 possessions, .978 points per possession)

Against Press: 125th (94 possessions, .883 points per possession)

Adjusted Tempo*: 286th (66.2 possessions/40 minutes)

*Per Kenpom.com


OFFENSE - HEAT MAP

Virginia Tech Hokies Heat Map, Through Games of Feb. 9
Virginia Tech Hokies Heat Map, Through Games of Feb. 9 (Synergy Sports)

OBSERVATIONS

Just under a quarter of Virginia Tech's offense comes from spot-up shooting, a category in which the Hokies rank 53rd nationally. Tech is 33rd in breaking down and beating man-to-man principles; in the ACC, only Virginia and Notre Dame are better against man-to-man.

Despite a decent track record from the left corner (bottom right of the heat map), the Hokies hoist most of their perimeter jumpers from the wings or straight away. If defenses leave a driving lane open in a pick-and-roll situation, look out. Hokie ball-handlers rank 11th nationally in efficiency when they keep the ball off a screen.

Exclusively a man-to-man team defensively, Virginia Tech ranks in the bottom half of Division-I in all of Synergy's major categories. A slow tempo makes more sense for the Hokies than their in-state counterpart, as both their transition offense (231st) and defense (254th) have been weak points.

More on the Hokies and their star forward, Keve Aluma, will be coming next week in Ham-alytics.

As for the final two contenders on the list, here are raw statistics for both Louisville and North Carolina, teams Florida State has played and beaten this season.

Louisville (11-4, 6-3 ACC)

Upcoming Games

Feb. 13: at Virginia Tech, PPD

Feb. 16: vs. Syracuse, 6:30 p.m. ET

Feb. 20: at North Carolina, 6 p.m. ET


OFFENSE - FAST FACTS

Overall: 125th (1,145 possessions, 0.914 points per possession)

Half-court vs Man-to-Man: 173rd (822 possessions, 0.865 points per possession)

Half-court vs Zone: 137th (153 possessions, 0.948 points per possession)

Transition Offense: 64th (170 possessions, 1.188 points per possession)

Against Press: 230th (71 possessions, 0.775 points per possession)

Adjusted Tempo: 297th (66.1 possessions/40 minutes)


DEFENSE - FAST FACTS

Overall: 113th (1,131 possessions, 0.852 points per possession)

Half-court vs Man-to-Man: 162nd (1,000 possessions, 0.844 points per possession)

Half-court vs Zone: N/A (8 possessions, 1.375 points per possession)

Transition Defense: 60th (123 possessions, 0.886 points per possession)

Press Defense: 224th (14 possessions, 0.929 points per possession)


SINCE WE LAST SAW THE CARDINALS ...

Louisville has played just three games, winning two. Four of the Cardinals' ACC games have been postponed, including a key matchup with Virginia Tech that was set to take place on Saturday. The season series with Florida State is wrapped up with the Seminoles winning convincingly (78-65) at the Yum! Center on Jan. 18.


North Carolina (12-6, 7-4 ACC)

Upcoming Games

Feb. 13: at Virginia, 6 p.m. ET

Feb. 16: vs. Virginia Tech, 6 p.m. ET

Feb. 20: vs Louisville, 6 p.m. ET


OFFENSE - FAST FACTS

Overall: 263rd (1,565 possessions, 0.848 points per possession)

Half-court vs Man-to-Man: 260th (1,060 possessions, 0.824 points per possession)

Half-court vs Zone: 171st (209 possessions, 0.919 points per possession)

Transition Offense: 311th (296 possessions, .885 points per possession)

Against Press: 54th (80 possessions, 1.000 points per possession)

Adjusted Tempo: 72nd (70.6 possessions/40 minutes)


DEFENSE - FAST FACTS

Overall: 181st (1,440 possessions, 0.876 points per possession)

Half-court vs Man-to-Man: 146th (1,227 possessions, 0.840 points per possession)

Half-court vs Zone: N/A (26 possessions, 1.077 points per possession)

Transition Defense: 281st (187 possessions, 1.080 points per possession)

Press Defense: 39th (75 possessions, 0.653 points per possession)


SINCE WE LAST SAW THE TAR HEELS...

North Carolina has won four of five, with its only setback being a loss at Clemson. The Tar Heels dropped their first meeting with Florida State, 82-76, on Jan. 16 and host the Seminoles in Chapel Hill on Feb. 27.

Next Week

With layoff number two in the rear-view, next week's Ham-alytics will review the game against Virginia (Monday, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN) and look more in depth at the Virginia Tech Hokies. Welcome back, Seminole hoops!

---------------------------

Discuss FSU basketball with fans on Warchant's Seminole Hoops message board

Advertisement