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Published Feb 18, 2021
Ham-alytics: Examining FSU's soaring offense, previewing Pitt matchup
Tom Lang  •  TheOsceola
Director of Original Content
Twitter
@_TomLang

While “Big Monday” was a big snoozer for all the right reasons, Ham-alytics HQ was awake and alert to a potential change in plans for Florida State men's basketball.

The Seminoles originally were scheduled to play host to Virginia Tech this Saturday, but with the Hokies battling COVID issues inside their program, the ACC swiftly moved to send FSU to Pittsburgh to make up an earlier game that had been postponed.

Just like the invaluable walk-ons who are equal parts player and coach, we shift our focus in anticipation of the Seminoles’ road tilt Saturday afternoon (4 p.m. ET, RSN). But first – and, as always, powered by Synergy Sports’ insights – it’s time for another look at FSU by the numbers.

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Here’s how the Seminoles have been trending in month three of our Synergy Survey (note the progress in nearly every category):

FSU OFFENSE – As of 12/23/20

Overall: 158th

Half-court vs. Man-to-Man: 160th

Half-court vs. Zone: 64th

Transition Offense: 238th

Against Press: 43rd

Adjusted Tempo: 170th - per Kenpom.com

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FSU OFFENSE – As of 1/20/21

Overall: 64th (+94 spots)

Half-court vs. Man-to-Man: 108th (+52 spots)

Half-court vs. Zone: 43rd (+21 spots)

Transition Offense: 52nd (+186 spots)

Against Press: 29th (+14 spots)

Adjusted Tempo: 150th (+20 spots) – per Kenpom.com

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FSU OFFENSE – As of 2/18/21

Overall: 47th (+17 spots)

Half-court vs. Man-to-Man: 52nd (+56 spots)

Half-court vs. Zone: 158th (-115 spots)

Transition Offense: 64th (-12 spots)

Against Press: 28th (+1 spot)

Adjusted Tempo: 115th (+35 spots) - per Kenpom.com

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FSU OFFENSE - Heat Map, All Games Through 2/15/21

OBSERVATIONS

Led by exceptional perimeter shooting, the Seminoles’ two-month rise up the offensive efficiency rankings continues at an aggressive pace. Since late December, Florida State has climbed 111 spots in overall offensive production and 108 spots against man-to-man principles. Tempo has jumped into the top third of Division-I as well.

Florida State’s efficiency against zone principles has dropped precipitously. However, of the 997 half-court possessions charted by Synergy, the ‘Noles have seen zone just 105 times (11.7 percent).

Here are some other fast facts the above numbers don’t tell you:

* FSU ranks in the top 5 percent of Division-I in spot-up shooting, ranking 19th in the country. In terms of the major conferences, only five teams -- Baylor, Villanova, Cal, Iowa and Ohio State -- are more efficient than the Seminoles in converting spot-up looks.

* The above note is especially good for Florida State as 26.2 percent of its offensive possessions end in a spot-up shot -- by far the team's largest outcome across all play types.

* To date, the ‘Noles have executed against press defense in exactly 100 possessions. Of Synergy’s top 50 teams against the press, only 11 have seen as much up-court pressure. Florida State's ranks fourth among those teams.

* Three rotation regulars are producing north of one point per possession this season, led by center Balsa Koprivica’s 1.113 mark. The other two are guards Anthony Polite (1.051) and M.J. Walker (1.005).

* The Seminoles rank 13th nationally in executing cut actions, producing at a 1.4 points/possession clip.

On to Virginia Te-, er, Pitt

Perhaps the third attempt at playing in the Petersen Events Center will be the charm for Florida State and its host, Pitt. Though the Panthers are just 5-7 in ACC play, they are 1-1 against ranked competition. The victory came at home against Virginia Tech on Feb. 3.

In terms of a team scout, one defensive number jumps out the most for Pitt. Of all 347 teams in the Synergy rankings, the Panthers are fifth-best at defending the spot-up jumper. Among teams seeing a minimum of 250 spot-up shots, the Panthers rank second behind only Florida Gulf Coast.

Recalling the notes from above on FSU shooting, strength will be going against strength on Saturday. The silver lining for the Seminoles is fairly bold, however, as Pitt ranks comfortably in the bottom half of the country against all other types of offensive plays.

Player Spotlight: Justin Champagnie, Forward

A 6-foot-6, 200-pound sophomore, Champagnie has not been held to single-digit points one time in his 14 games this season. What's more, he is efficient.

In conference play, Champagnie is shooting 52.4 percent from the floor, 39.4 percent from the perimeter and 74.5 percent from the line – all while averaging a double-double a game. Here is his heat map through Wednesday’s action.

In terms of two-point baskets, Champagnie gets the job done in the post and on offensive putbacks. Synergy rates him among the game’s best (top 20 percent) in both categories.

As for perimeter shooting – an area in which Champagnie is selective but very efficient – simply contesting shots makes a world of difference. According to Synergy, the sophomore produces in the top 9 percent of Division-I in converting unguarded shots. Against guarded looks, Champagnie’s production craters from the 91st percentile down to the 15th percentile.

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