Ham-alytics: FSU's skyrocketing offensive numbers and a 2nd look at Clemson

Over the span of five days, things went from fair to fairly ridiculous -- in a good way -- for the Florida State men's basketball team's offense.

Since last we spoke in Ham-alytics, it’s as if the Seminoles (8-2, 4-1 ACC) tied their offensive efficiency ratings to a rocket and struck the match -- just as the ball tipped off against N.C. State.

This week, we break out the Seminoles’ most recent three games on their own, look at those games’ impact on Synergy ratings, and review the Dec. 29 Clemson game ahead of Saturday’s rematch with the Tigers (3 p.m. ET, ABC).

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For those who are new to this feature, a spoiler alert: If a team’s heat map looks anything like the one below this paragraph, said team has gone unconscious.

Florida State shot a scintillating 29-of-55 (52.7 percent) from long distance in its wins over N.C. State, North Carolina and Louisville. The Seminoles were also lethal in tight -- converting 67.5 percent of their 80 shots around the rim. Add the cherry on top of just four missed free throws in 48 attempts, and you’ve concocted three worthy reasons for stupefied opposing head coaches.

Last week’s pair of home wins showed FSU can be dangerous in transition as the Seminoles outscored the Wolfpack and Tar Heels, 45-13, on fast breaks. In fact, since their win over Gardner-Webb on Dec. 21, the ‘Noles have catapulted from 238th nationally in transition offense all the way up to 52nd, per Synergy Sports.

To show just how far Florida State’s multi-faceted attack has come, let’s compare its place in Synergy’s ratings from just before Christmas to where things stand currently.

FSU OFFENSE – As of 12/23/20

Overall: 158th

Half-court vs. Man-to-Man: 160th

Half-court vs. Zone: 64th

Transition Offense: 238th

Against Press: 43rd

Adjusted Tempo: 170th - per Kenpom.com

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FSU OFFENSE – As of 1/20/21

Overall: 64th (+94 spots)

Half-court vs. Man-to-Man: 108th (+52 spots)

Half-court vs. Zone: 43rd (+21 spots)

Transition Offense: 52nd (+186 spots)

Against Press: 29th (+14 spots)

Adjusted Tempo: 150th (+20 spots) – per Kenpom.com

OBSERVATIONS

The gains are significant in some areas, meteoric in others. Though the Seminoles’ tempo rank is 20 spots higher, their adjusted possessions count actually is a tad lower (70.4 per game dropped to 69.6 per game). Put simply: With a similar pace, the ‘Noles are generating and knocking down easier looks with greater offensive balance.

Be it the usual suspects or role players like RayQuan Evans, Wyatt Wilkes, Malik Osborne or Nathaniel Jack, just about every rotation piece had a big hand in the three-game winning streak.

Now let's look back at the last time the Seminoles lost a basketball game. How and where did No. 20 Clemson (9-2, 5-1 ACC) succeed in handing Florida State its first conference loss? Let’s look at the Tigers’ map from two of Synergy’s perspectives.

Two areas of success for Clemson were around the key and along the wings. Recalling how the game was played, the Tigers drew 24 fouls and scored 24 of their 77 points at the free-throw line. The ability to be tough and get to the basket, lauded by Leonard Hamilton, offset shooting just 39.5 percent from the field.

Now let’s look at Florida State’s offensive map from the same game:

The Seminoles shot just 28.1 percent (9-for-31) from the perimeter. But the ‘Noles were efficient in the paint and to the basket’s left. Given how well things went in the paint -- and how much Hamilton lamented a lack of toughness inside at Littlejohn -- it would be surprising not to see more activity around the basket for Florida State this time around.

The next question will be whether Clemson can keep Florida State's perimeter shooting bottled up the way it did in the teams' first meeting, or if the Seminoles' three-game trend rolls onward.

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