Foul trouble, free-throw disparity, settling for perimeter shots and a step up in competition. In no particular order, these elements all contributed to 18th-ranked Florida State’s 77-67 loss to Clemson earlier this week.

But there is little time to worry about a loss at Littlejohn, as the Seminoles (5-2, 1-1 ACC) host No. 20 Duke (3-2, 1-0) on Saturday night (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2).

In this edition of Ham-alytics, we use Synergy Sports’ insights to check in on freshman Scottie Barnes’ development and break down a big-time matchup with Duke.

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The basic numbers indicate Scottie Barnes is already a better distributor than the veteran version of Trent Forrest. Through his first seven games, Barnes’ assist-to-turnover ratio stands at 1.88. In Forrest’s two upperclassmen seasons combined, he turned in a ratio of 1.54.

Where Synergy likes Barnes’ facilitation most is in the pick-and-roll. The freshman is firmly in the top 25 percent of Division-I when defenders force him to pass, and in the top third of the country in overall pick-and-roll management. Translation: Barnes does not buckle under defensive pressure, adeptly making quick decisions.

While other bright spots are certainly there – Barnes also is elite guarding in isolation and in hitting spot-up looks, per Synergy – consistency has been a problem.

In terms of overall efficiency, Synergy rates Barnes as just an average offensive and defensive player. He has improved near the basket since a woeful 1-for-7 night against Indiana (see map below), but free throw shooting (42.3 percent) and a Forrest-like willingness to attack the basket are still voids Florida State is looking to fill.

Synergy’s data indicates a learning curve is definitely happening. What comes over the next few weeks for Barnes will be fascinating for Seminole fans and NBA scouts alike.

As is the case with a COVID year across sports, we have a limiting factor to consider ahead of the Seminoles-Blue Devils tilt: Duke has not played in over two weeks. Saturday’s game will mark its first action since a 75-65 win over Notre Dame on Dec. 16.

That said, there are some interesting areas that both teams may key on Saturday night.

Duke Offense vs. FSU Defense

For its handful of performances, this Blue Devil squad has been impressive from beyond the arc. Other than the right corner (bottom left of the graphic), they are converting their perimeter looks with high efficiency. Let’s take a look at Duke’s offensive map first, followed by Florida State’s defensive map right underneath it for some comparisons.

The place to start is on the wings. The Seminoles have done better defending the corner three of late, but they have yielded open looks from the wing. While this isn’t the worst look to give up, open ACC shooters (like those at Duke) can make you pay. Keep an eye on contested perimeter shots – and where they happen on the court – Saturday night.

If you like strength-against-strength battles, look around the rim for which big bodies impose their will. Both teams are performing well there to start the season.

A 6-foot-9 sophomore hailing from Minnesota, Matthew Hurt has been a set-it-and-forget-it producer for Duke to start 2020-21. Since the Devils’ opener, Hurt has scored at least 18 points and grabbed no fewer than five rebounds in every game.

Synergy rates Hurt as the No. 1 player in Division-I in the post (16 possessions, 1.688 points/possession). And even though Hurt has gone 0-for-8 from the perimeter in Duke’s last two games, his heat map suggests the Seminoles would be unwise to leave him alone beyond the arc.

Head coach Leonard Hamilton openly wondered after the Clemson loss how much he can switch defensively moving forward. How the 'Noles handle Hurt may provide a window as to the staff's plans for ACC play.

Duke runs man principles over 98 percent of the time and press rarely. Synergy rates the Devils' efficiency in the 40th-50th percentile in most every major defensive category. So where can the Seminole offense find openings against Duke's half-court defense? Let's flip the script. First, let's look at FSU's offensive map followed by Duke's defensive map.

Through five games, Duke has been open for business from the corners and to the basket’s left. The Devils defend well in close and haven’t been hurt from the right wing – a place where FSU has succeeded. If the Seminoles are keying in on one half of the court, the data says they should operate on the left. We’ll see if Duke’s two-plus weeks of preparation helps mitigate this early trend.

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