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Published Dec 28, 2020
Ham-alytics: Six-game snapshots of 3 FSU veterans and Clemson's defense
Tom Lang  •  TheOsceola
Director of Original Content
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@_TomLang

As ACC play looms, Ham-alytics continues our six-game snapshots of the key pieces to Leonard Hamilton’s rotation. (In case you missed our team stat bomb and spotlight on Anthony Polite, check that out here.)

For this installment, enjoy a grab-bag of Synergy Sports insights on a guard, a wing, a big man and the Seminoles’ next opponent: Clemson.

FSU (5-1, 1-0 ACC) will take on the Tigers (6-1, 0-1) this Tuesday at 7 p.m. (RSN TV affiliates).

M.J. Walker

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Let’s begin with the veteran’s work so far in his senior season. While Walker’s 2019-20 profile illustrated success as a wing shooter and to the basket’s left, the scouting report this season looks just a little different.

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Let’s compare the two to show the changes. Here is 2019-20 as a refresher (gray means national average):

And now this season:


Walker’s activity from the left wing (top-right of the map) is way down to start this season. Efficiency along the right wing remains consistent, while looks from straight-away at the top of the key are off to a scalding start. The senior is performing consistently in the corners year over year -- he much prefers left over right.

As for insights beyond the map, Synergy places Walker in the top third of the country in offensive efficiency (70th percentile). In just under 100 total possessions, he is producing at a .990 points-per-possession clip. The top reason? The Georgia native has shown great strides as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll. In 25 such pick-and-roll situations, Walker ranks in the top 16 percent of the country in efficiency, producing an even 1.000 points per possession.

Defensively, it has been a different story for Walker so far. Synergy’s scouting report puts him in the bottom fifth of the country in overall efficiency and below-average in multiple categories, including his defense of spot-up shots.

RaiQuan Gray

While Walker’s defense leaves Synergy wanting for more, RaiQuan Gray continues to make a positive impact in that area. The noticeably trimmer (yet still listed at 260 pounds) redshirt junior is allowing opponents to shoot just 26.7 percent from the field in 37 possessions. He is also forcing a turnover in just over eight percent of his chances to guard the ball. Gray rates in the top 27 percent of all defenders in the country.

Offensively, early returns suggest a mixed bag with upside. Gray has come to life around the basket this season, as his 56.5 percent shooting around the rim is up significantly from last season’s 50 percent mark. However, the 6-foot-8 wing is still in the bottom half of Division-I in total efficiency, and in the bottom 20 percent of the country in spot-up shooting.

As with Walker's defensive statistics, it's important to remember that six games is still a relatively small sample size. Here is Gray's shooting chart:

Balsa Koprivica

For the sophomore big man, the story is simple: Good offense, not-so-good defense. We’ll first take a look at the heat map, with Synergy’s illustration broken into more specific zones than you’ve seen in this feature so far.

Through six games, if the action is not around the rim, it's not going in.

Koprivica rates among Synergy’s elite in total offensive efficiency, efficiency in the half court and against man principles. His strongest work has come in the pick-and-roll and in non-post up looks at the rim. The term “non-post up” is an important distinction because when the Seminoles feed their 7-foot-1 center for a traditional post-up look, he ranks in the bottom 10th of the country in efficiency.

In overall defensive efficiency, Synergy rates Koprivica in the bottom 19 percent of the country, as he's allowed an even 1.000 points per possession in 34 chances. He sits in the bottom seven percent against jump shots. The ray of hope is in isolation: in 12 isolation possessions, Koprivica has allowed just seven points.

Fast Facts: Clemson Defense

According to Synergy’s metrics, Clemson’s defense is among Division-I’s best. The Tigers rank 12th nationally in points per possession allowed, including top-20 PPP figures in both half-court and transition situations (transition offense has been a struggle for the Seminoles). Here is the heat map for Clemson's defense (reminder, garnet means good and gray is the national average) followed by some other notes on the Tigers' impressive run through seven games:

*Entering Tuesday, Clemson has exclusively played man-to-man defense while employing the press a significant amount of the time -- just under 25 percent of its defensive possessions.

*Among the Tigers’ defenders, Synergy’s data suggests the following three are their best: forward Jonathan Baehre (93rd percentile) and guards Al-Amir Dawes (91st) and Clyde Trapp (83rd).

*Clemson excels against screens, rating among the nation’s elite in defending the pick-and-roll (.566 PPP) and screens away from the ball (.525 PPP).

*Against spot-up shooting, Synergy rates Clemson just above the nation’s average (56th percentile). This figure is despite Tiger opponents shooting just 27 percent from the perimeter through seven games.

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