Ham-alytics: The Road Game Question for FSU men's basketball

On its face, Florida State’s regular-season finale against Notre Dame (Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2) is one in which the Seminoles will be significant favorites. Rightfully so.

With all that’s on the line -- a second consecutive ACC regular-season crown and fortification of a consensus top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament – one can expect Leonard Hamilton’s bunch to be determined. It doesn’t hurt that the ‘Noles also are more talented and deeper than the Fighting Irish.

However, there is one factor that will keep many in the FSU fan base from inking a ‘W’ on Saturday before it is earned. (Rightfully so, again.)

This game is on the road.

With a 3-3 record away from the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center, 11th-ranked Florida State has been a mixed bag of overwhelming (see Louisville and Miami) and disjointed (Georgia Tech and North Carolina).

But how real are the road concerns in terms of the numbers? Our final regular-season installment of Ham-alytics gets to work with Synergy Sports’ insights by our side.

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Without much excavation into the spreadsheets, simply examining the heat maps from FSU's home games and road games is revelatory. Take a look at what the Seminoles have done -- specifically from the perimeter – at home this season:

And now compare it to the road:

Stand down, Synergy. No rocket science needed here.

At home, Florida State is shooting 42.3 percent from deep. Taken by itself, that level of marksmanship would rank first in the country, with only Baylor (42.0) within reach of the Seminoles’ proficiency.

On the road, FSU is hitting an even 32 percent from beyond the arc. Taken on its own, this would put the ‘Noles in 255th.

A quick qualifier: It is worth noting the sample size difference before we get into individual numbers. Florida State has played just six road games compared to 13 in Tallahassee. With that in mind, here are some notable Seminole shooters and their home/road splits, according to Synergy’s data accumulation:

* M.J. Walker knocked down a staggering 53.6 percent (37-of-69) of his perimeter shots at home this season compared to 11.8 percent (2-of-17) on the road.

* Anthony Polite turned in an even 50 percent (19-of-38) at home while knocking down a respectable 36.8 percent (7-of-19) on the road.

* RaiQuan Gray’s improved work from distance showed itself at home (7-of-18) much more than the half-dozen road games (1-of-8).

* One ray of hope comes in the form of Wyatt Wilkes. Of Seminole shooters who have tried at least 15 perimeter shots both home and away, the redshirt junior is the lone man to perform better on the road (11-of-25, 44 percent) than at the Civic Center (11-of-33, 33.3 percent).

In five of 19 games this season, Florida State has turned the ball over at least 17 times. The season turnover-per-possession rate isn’t anything to brag about either. Broken out into home and road splits, Florida State’s average of 13.1 turnovers at home would put the ‘Noles in a mediocre 153rd place in Division-I. A ghastly average of 14.7 turnovers on the road would land them in 257th.

As for inside shooting, there isn’t a heap of difference in Tallahassee or elsewhere. Florida State has made an even 52 percent of its two-point attempts at home and 50.6 percent on the road. Synergy’s heat map shows nearly identical work around the basket as the Seminoles are converting on 57.3 percent of their looks at home, compared to 57.1 percent on the road.

Here is where the Ham-alytics crew must remind you to think backwards. When looking at defensive efficiency maps, low percentages are the target for high efficiency. So if you see some garnet next to low numbers, it is because the defense is getting it done.

Here is Florida State at home on defense:

And on the road:

The findings here are strange indeed. Florida State has actually turned in better defensive performances -- in terms of field-goal percentage defense -- on the road than at home.

Two places where the differences are nominal are overall field-goal percentage and around the rim. At home, the Seminoles allowed opponents to shoot 40.2 percent from the field compared to an even 39 percent on the road -- both elite numbers in their own right. In terms of rim protection, FSU's splits are a nominal 0.3 percent different when comparing game location.

But where the numbers take a huge leap is in 3-point shooting. Not only do the 'Noles shoot better from long-range at home, but their opponents do as well. In six road games, FSU opponents are converting on 28.2 percent of their perimeter shots. In 13 home games, the opposition is shooting 36.2 percent.

So for those keeping score at home, Florida State is 10.3 percent more accurate from long range in Tallahassee. And its opponents aren't far behind, as they are an even eight percent better.

Beyond turnover issues, maybe Ham-alytics has discovered something truly insightful this week: In the eyes of perimeter gunners, perhaps the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center is home to the friendliest looking rims in college basketball.

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