Give Leonard Hamilton’s bunch full credit. They went up to a historically difficult place to win a game (and get a friendly whistle), faced their zone defense demons and secured a critical 76-71 victory over Syracuse.

After Ham-alytics documented the Florida State offense and its woes against zone defense, the Seminoles (10-5, 4-2 ACC) climbed from 313th in efficiency against zone principles to 237th. Not a bad day at the office.

Now the ‘Noles return home for a giant challenge in the form of the No. 6-ranked Duke Blue Devils (14-2, 4-1).

Much like Saturday’s feature, we’ll fist review the FSU defense by comparing last year’s team to the current iteration of Seminoles. Let’s see what the experts at Synergy Sports have to say about this group.

(Editor’s note: our service at Synergy has taken away the ability to access half-court graphics and heat maps in 2021. According to the folks at Synergy, those numbers and scouting reports are now reserved solely for verified teams and scouting departments.)

*** Don't miss our exclusive FSU sports coverage. 30-day Free Trial***

FSU DEFENSE – 2020-21 Season

Overall: 76th (.848 PPP - Points per Possession)

Half-court, Man-to-Man principles: 126th (.844 PPP) - 93.7% of defensive possessions

Half-court, Zone principles: 43rd (.790 PPP) - 6.3% of defensive possessions

Transition Defense: 33rd (.880 PPP)

Press Defense: 146th (.832 PPP) - 35.0% of defensive possessions

---

FSU DEFENSE – 2021-22 Season (Through Games of 1/16/22)

Overall: 177th (.863 PPP)

Half-court, Man-to-Man principles: 249th (.869 PPP) - 92.7% of defensive possessions

Half-court, Zone principles: 84th (.814 PPP) - 7.3% of defensive possessions

Transition Defense: 40th (.855 PPP)

Press Defense: 157th (.797 PPP) - 35.8% of defensive possessions

---

The Verdict:

Much like the offensive side of the ball, we expected FSU to not look as strong this season. The good news is both transition defense and press defense are about as efficient as last year’s Seminoles.

In the half court, Florida State is roughly two points out of every hundred possessions worse across the board; a smallish-sounding margin but not insignificant.

To look more in depth, here is a breakout of FSU’s defense against different shot/play types. What we find is a little surprising as FSU grades out a bit better than last season in several areas:

-Spot up: .901 PPP (.029 better than last season)

-Transition: .855 PPP (.025 better)

-Pick-and-roll, ball handler keeps: .769 PPP (.046 better)

-Isolation plays: .670 PPP (.039 worse)

In addition to these numbers, the Seminoles are much worse against post plays. Though they’ve only seen 42 post possessions this season, Florida State ranks in the bottom two percent of the country in defending big men inside. More on why that could be a problem on Tuesday night in just a moment.

To put it mildly, Duke is good at making baskets. Synergy rates the Blue Devils as the ninth best offense in the country. Among the things Duke does at an elite level is drawing up cut actions; the Devils’ 1.539 points per possession on cut plays is the best figure in the country. Defensively, Florida State is allowing 1.250 points per possession to cuts; in the bottom 25 percent of the NCAA. Red flag.

Where this game could be an interesting test for both teams is in transition. Duke is in the top 10 percent of offensive efficiency when it gets out and runs. Florida State in the top 11 percent defending in transition.

Player to watch: Paolo Banchero, Forward

Banchero is the final “it” freshman Mike Krzyzewski will recruit as Duke’s head coach, and the 6-foot-10, 250-pound forward is a stout challenge for Florida State. The Seattle product is averaging just under 18 points a game and pulls down 7.4 rebounds a night. Banchero is a weapon in the post and on cuts, and he hits a respectable 34 percent of his 3-point shots.

Banchero’s offensive touches come near the bucket more than anywhere else. Duke feeds the freshman in the post 19.1 percent of the time, and he factors in on put-back opportunities another 5.4 percent of possessions. FSU is not a good rebounding team (206th nationally), so success against Banchero would be a surprising sign of development and improvement.

--------------

Discuss this with fans on Warchant's Seminole Hoops message board