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Handicapper: Transfer-loaded roster makes FSU games tough to predict

VegasInsider.com senior handicapper Brian Edwards isn't exactly sure what to make of the Florida State football team heading into the 2021 season, and he apparently is not alone.

When the opening weekend lines were released earlier this year, most sportsbooks installed the Seminoles as a 10- or 10.5-point underdog for their season opener against Notre Dame.

Over the last six weeks, that number has decreased at most books to 8 or 8.5 points, and it has even dipped down to 7.5 at a few locations. At DraftKings, for example, the line dropped to 7.5 briefly Monday before being pushed back to 8.0.

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FSU football coach Mike Norvell has added 10 scholarship transfers to his roster this offseason.
FSU football coach Mike Norvell has added 10 scholarship transfers to his roster this offseason. (Don Juan Moore/Character Lines)

Edwards said he thinks those downward shifts are a reflection of some modest recent betting on the Seminoles, but he doesn't expect the spread to drop any lower than that.

"That's not enormous action ... I don't think it's an injury situation or anything of that nature," Edwards said. "I don't think it's going to get to seven. I think it will probably stay in the 7 1/2 to 8 1/2 range."

Edwards noted that he wouldn't be surprised to see a decent amount of volatility in FSU's point spreads in 2021, particularly early in the year as handicappers try to get a feel for what the Seminoles will look like in Year Two under head coach Mike Norvell.

On top of the typical uncertainties about a relatively new regime, Florida State has the added variable of bringing in a slew of transfers during the offseason. Of the 10 new transfers on scholarship, as many as six or seven could be in the starting lineup when the Seminoles host Notre Dame on Sept. 5.

"A lot of them are really talented guys from big programs," Edwards said. "So I'm going to try to form my opinion after watching the Notre Dame game. There are a lot of teams that have six to eight transfers, but [10] is a pretty big number.

"And that's a good thing, to get that fresh blood in there. Because there hasn't been much winning there the last three or four years."

Due largely to those recent struggles, Vegas has set FSU's season win total at 5.5 games. And Edwards said that lines up pretty well with how he sees the Seminoles' season playing out.

Based on what he knows now, he only projects FSU with four likely victories -- home games against Jacksonville State, UMass, Syracuse and Louisville. He considers N.C. State and Miami as "swing games," which could go either way.

Edwards projects the Seminoles to lose the other six -- Notre Dame at home and North Carolina, Florida, Clemson, Boston College and Wake Forest on the road.

"I've got them losing at Wake, but they could certainly win that game," Edwards said.

While he isn't ready to predict that the Seminoles will win both of their swing games, Edwards likes the fact that they get the Hurricanes and Wolfpack later in the season. He said that should give a retooled roster time to gel for games that could have bowl implications.

"You would think that FSU would probably be better in November," Edwards said. "They could get to a bowl game, especially if Milton (UCF quarterback transfer McKenzie Milton) is good. I think getting to a bowl game would be a pretty decent season considering all of the circumstances."

After several down years, Edwards said, he thinks FSU is heading back in the right direction -- "I'm really high on Norvell," he said. But he added it will take time for the roster to return to an elite level.

Looking back at the Notre Dame matchup, Edwards said the Seminoles are getting the Irish in a good spot -- at home and in a prime-time season opener. Brian Kelly's team also is replacing four starters on the offensive line as well as star quarterback Ian Book and several key players on defense.

The problem is the Irish still are one of the best programs in the country. Edwards pointed out that according to Phil Steele's position group rankings, Notre Dame ranks seventh at running back, ninth on the defensive line, 12th at defensive back, 13th on special teams and 18th at linebacker.

At the same time, Edwards isn't completely sold on the Irish. For the season, he projects them with seven wins and five swing games.

"I think that Notre Dame is definitely more vulnerable earlier in the season," Edwards said. "They've got the new quarterback in [Wisconsin transfer] Jack Coan and they're rebuilding the offensive line, plus it's Week 1, on the road, at night. If FSU plays really well, I could see them pulling the upset in this game. I think Notre Dame is more talented, but not in a lopsided fashion."

And based on how the Seminoles look in that game, Edwards said his opinion on the other 11 games could change dramatically.

"I'm not trying to have a set-in-stone opinion of them coming into the year," he said. "I want to be able to adjust my opinion rapidly."

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