Introducing Ham-alytics: Advanced Stats on FSU Basketball

Hope is here, ‘Nole fans. The sounds of squeaking shoes, seismic dunks and groaning coaches up Tobacco Road draw ever closer.

Welcome, one and all, to the newest feature on Warchant, your ultimate source for comprehensive Florida State sports coverage. We are proud to introduce “Ham-alytics,” an inside look at the key numbers and trends impacting Seminole hoops. Ham-alytics is powered by the experts at Synergy Sports, a service renowned in basketball circles for its comprehensive ability to scout the sport from baseline to baseline.

Our mission is simple: We will provide you an advanced look at Seminole basketball in an easy-to-consume way. Where Synergy’s data takes us, we will go. (And yes, we understand advanced scouting reports are but one tool in the box that crafts basketball’s story. But as you'll see, these data sets are both informative and fun.)

Our first couple of features will stick to Florida State insights, but as the season progresses and the sample sizes grow, we’ll roll out opponent scouting reports as well.

In this first installment, we'll see what the numbers say the ACC champion Seminoles lost on offense from last season, and we'll also examine the offensive profile of senior guard M.J. Walker.

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With respect to Dominik Olejniczak, an efficient big man in his own right, the void to fill in 2020-21 is one left by two NBA lottery picks and a point guard who personified Leonard Hamilton’s program.

Where on the court did Devin Vassell, Trent Forrest and Patrick Williams (ordered by their scoring output) make the biggest impact on offense? Let’s examine two efficiency charts to find out. First, here are the 2019-20 Seminoles from the field, broken up into 16 zones. The scale below tells you how the 'Noles performed against the average ACC team in each zone (ACC percentages are in gray numbers).

Again, where the garnet runs darkest is where Florida State outperformed the ACC average by the widest margins. As one might expect with last year's successes, the 'Noles are above average in most of these 16 zones (10 to be precise).

Next, let’s take a look at that same chart without Williams, Vassell and Forrest data. Notice where efficiency drops and the total field goal attempts plummet.

Around the rim, efficiency didn’t take a huge hit without the Seminoles' big three. But look at that volume disparity. Vassell, Forrest and Williams combined to account for 43.2 percent of the team’s 826 shots in tight.

While it stands to reason three of the four most active shooters on the team would rack up a significant chunk of the activity in the premium scoring area, these numbers do not even account for the multitude of fouls drawn in that zone (save for and-1 situations). In short, the current roster must be salivating at the opportunities available to them this season.

Where did efficiency drop? Look right up the middle. Synergy’s shot chart says the 2020-21 Seminoles will need to improve on their runners, pull-up and midrange shots from the key. To those who tuned in regularly last season and know Forrest's game (43 percent on 23 field goal attempts from at or just inside the free-throw line), this would not be surprising.

Also not altogether surprising, the good news for Florida State is the three-point heat map is essentially a wash with and without Vassell, Forrest and Williams. Of the departed Noles, only Vassell (41.5 percent 3-PT FG) was a true outside threat. A subtle note of caution, though: per Synergy Research, 47.1 percent of Trent Forrest's assists in 2019-20 came on three-pointers. Scottie Barnes has work ahead of him to duplicate that type of distribution.

Here is where Synergy's scouts do some of their best and most fun work. To learn more about how Florida State's key departures played their respective games, here is a breakout of all offensive plays run by Vassell, Forrest and Williams.

Devin Vassell

Note how detailed these reports get -- this is where opponent scouts will be insightful down the road. For every possession that ended up in a Devin Vassell attempt from the field (or when he drew a shooting foul), Synergy breaks out the type of play and the PPP (points per possession) across his 2019-20 season. From there, those numbers are compared across the entire NCAA database to give a rating against the curve.

Your memory might tell you, for example. that Vassell was deadly in transition. Synergy agrees, and then some. According to their research, Vassell was ranked No. 1 in the ACC (minimum 70 possessions) in transition, as the 'Noles scored in 65.8 percent of their transition possessions involving the San Antonio Spurs' top pick.

Trent Forrest

We'll remain opinion-free on Ham-alytics, but objectively speaking there is no doubt Forrest's overall impact was felt beyond a chart like the above. It is a bit surprising to see Forrest's transition rating was "Average" by Synergy's metrics, but this is where it's worth pointing out this is specific data on shots from the field plus shooting fouls drawn only. Factor in assists on these possessions, and Forrest's rank jumps 21 percentage points, and the PPP figure climbs to 1.29, much healthier marks.

A place that the 2020-21 Seminoles might have a tough time making up for Forrest's departure is with offensive put-backs and second-chance opportunities. The numbers bore out what we knew: Forrest is easily one of the best rebounding point guards in program history.

Finally, the No. 4 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft.

Patrick Williams

The jump shot is what Patrick Williams will constantly focus on in the Chicago Bulls facility. In his one-and-done season, Williams was noticeably more comfortable in his game as the ACC slate wound down. If that momentum develops into NBA-level jump-shooting, the Bulls will be selling Williams jerseys for years to come.

Now, let's examine M.J. Walker, Florida State's veteran presence in 2020-21.

This season, especially in the early-going, the Seminoles' offense will lean heavily on senior M.J. Walker to be a consistent presence. Using Synergy's insights, let's take a look at where Walker makes his highest impact entering the year.

Both Walker and Vassell made 44 three-pointers last season, spearheading the Seminoles' perimeter attack. Though Vassell was 5.1 percent better in those situations (he took 16 fewer shots than Walker), M.J. was an asset both beyond and inside the arc.

Synergy's data suggests the Seminoles can lean on Walker in most situations, with transition buckets and spot-up shooting his bread and butter. Synergy also looks favorably on Walker as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll game, an indication he could be in line to help freshman Scottie Barnes in those situations as the season gets going.

Isolation possessions are where Walker will need to improve in 2020-21, but given the motion in the Florida State offense, that possession count should not skyrocket year over year.

Here are snapshots of Walker's heat map in his sophomore and junior seasons, starting with his second year in the program:

Note the increased efficiency shooting three pointers from the wing. Walker took a giant leap in productivity on the left wing (top-right of the maps) as a junior. In fact, his results from the left improved in all zones. The right corner (bottom-left of the map) could use some improvement, but the attempt disparity from both corners tells a story about where Walker is more confident.

Walker is already stout as a perimeter shooter, but if he can improve even slightly in that department, offensive options will open up even more for the 2020-21 team.

In the weeks ahead, Ham-alytics will take a look at more of Leonard Hamilton's key returners and scout some of the non-conference opponents. We hope you enjoyed the maiden voyage. Happy basketball season!

FSU opens the 2020-21 season this Friday against Gardner-Webb (3 p.m.).

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