Florida State heads into Friday night's game on the road against Louisville as a slight favorite. The Seminoles are looking to validate their victory against LSU two weeks ago by beating the Cardinals and snapping Louisville's two-game winning streak in the series between the schools. The Seminoles are looking to improve to 3-0 with a winning start to ACC play and continue to build momentum when they return to Tallahassee for a two-game homestand with matchups with Boston College and Wake Forest.
The Osceola staff offers their keys to an FSU victory in Louisville on Friday night.
Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva
This week the easy take is to first have the defense contain Louisville quarterback and for FSU's offensive line to pick up and effectively block the Cardinals' defensive blitz and stunt packages.
But for me, there are a couple of things that will really excite me if we execute:
Defend the zone stretch play. Especially the second-level defenders. Louisville will start the game and test our run defense. If they can have success doing that it opens up a lot of offense for them. Naked boots, play action passes, and counters off that action can make their offense a tough out without having to rely on Malik Cunningham's improvisational skills. A Louisville team that is adept and committed to running the stretch zone can give the FSU defense problems if it can't set the edge, maintain gap integrity and tackle. Defending their stretch running game with sound team defense will excite me.
Take advantage of downfield matchups/chunk plays. If FSU's offensive line and running backs are able to pick up the Louisville blitzes and stunts, then Jordan Travis and the pass catchers need to win vs. man and make plays. Make them pay if they decide to bring five, six or seven rushers by blocking them, winning downfield, delivering the ball in a good spot and making a catch. There will be opportunities.
Prediction: I think Louisville's home debut will make it a tough, hard-fought game.
FSU 31, Louisville 17
Osceola Editor Bob Ferrante
FSU's identity is to run. The last 10 days have seen an appropriate appreciation for Jordan Travis' growth as a passer and how he efficiently runs the FSU offense. FSU had its moments on the ground but found more success with end arounds against a tough LSU defensive line. Now, the Seminoles face a Louisville rush defense that is ranked 117th in the FBS and has allowed 416 rushing yards in two games. With Trey Benson, Treshaun Ward and Lawrance Toafili, it's time to let the three-headed monster eat up yards and eat up clock. As cliche as it is, FSU's best defense will be a good run game that controls the clock and limits how much time Malik Cunningham could be on the field.
Kick a little (when you have to). Ryan Fitzgerald has struggled with kickoffs, and he's 3 of 4 on field-goal attempts (missing from 47). Mike Norvell loves to go for it on fourth down from seemingly everywhere on the field, and I can't help but wonder how much of that decision is analytics, a feel of the game or perhaps some concern over Fitzgerald's accuracy. We saw plenty to like from FSU's special teams against LSU, but with what could be a number of close ACC games ahead it would be good to see Fitzgerald drill a few field goals and make sure those directional kickoffs stay inbounds instead of bouncing out and giving opponents better field position at the 35.
Prediction: FSU 27 Louisville 24
Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz:
The two keys to me are to control and contain. The No. 1 key to victory is to control the ball and to win the battle for time of possession. Running the ball successfully, coupled with a controlled passing game, means you limit the number of times the defense has to deal with Malik Cunningham, who is the straw that stirs the drink for the Louisville offense.
The second key to victory: Get Cunningham on the ground. Which is easier said than done in a spread offense, and impossible to do if you don't execute a sound containment plan. I've been told a wolf cannot catch a deer in an open field, but a pack will surround, contain and consume.
Prediction: FSU 28 Louisville 24
Osceola Senior Writer Curt Weiler
Contain Cunningham. My first key isn’t something FSU has done very well in its first few times going up against Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham. He hasn’t gashed the Seminoles for a lot of rushing yards, mainly because he’s been able to have a lot of success as a passer against FSU. If FSU’s improved defense from their last matchup against the Cardinals is able to not give up easy completions, U of L’s offense will likely run through Cunningham’s legs. Keeping him contained and limiting him to shorter gains will not be easy but severely hinder the Cardinals’ offense.
Pound the rock. FSU’s run game took an expected step back vs. LSU. The Tigers were set out to make Jordan Travis beat them with his arm, which he did. However, the run game is still expected to be the strength of FSU’s offense and should be back in a big way against Louisville. The Cardinals have allowed more than 200 rushing yards in each of their first two games and are by far the worst ACC team in yards per carry allowed so far this season. If FSU has early success on the ground and sticks with it, it may be hard for Louisville to keep up.
Prediction: I am a bit afraid of how confident I feel about FSU entering this game. I think FSU’s offensive strength matches up very well with Louisville’s defensive weakness. The Cardinals were very nearly 0-2 entering this game. Could they rally for their home opener and shock FSU? Absolutely. But I just feel like this won’t be a game the Seminoles are sweating out into the final minutes.
FSU 30, Louisville 20
Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham
Defensively, the key for FSU is easily identifiable. Stop Malik Cunningham. He has accounted for 67 percent of the Cards total yards from scrimmage so far this season. I think the best way to stop him is to make him throw the ball to beat you. You do that by taking away what the Cards want to do, which is run the ball. I think it is very likely that FSU will load the box and dare Cunningham to throw. That's not to say FSU still can't play coverage. They can line up with seven, eight and nine defenders in the box and have them retreat into coverage at the snap and that will also help disguise coverages. Cunningham, who is a fourth-year starter, is completing just 58 percent of his passes this season. Against UCF he completed just 48 percent of his passes and often times looked reluctant to throw the ball. That may have something to do with who he is playing with, but I think it will he harder for Cunningham to beat you with his arm than his legs.
Offensively, I am going to jump on the You Run the Ball to Win Train. FSU has been good under Norvell running the ball even with a sub-par offensive line in his first two seasons in Tallahassee. FSU has three very capable running backs who are running behind the best offensive line the program has had in at least five seasons. Take advantage of both of those things. Louisville gave up just 45 rushing yards in the second half against UCF. But the fact is the Cardinals gave up more than 200 yards on the ground to both Syracuse and UCF.
Prediction: I don't think Louisville has played up to its capabilities in its first two ballgames but by the same token I don't think FSU has either. The Cardinals will be facing the best FSU team have they have lined up against in the Scott Satterfield era. The Seminoles should still have some momentum coming off the LSU win and still be motivated by the fact they have something to prove against Louisville and to the ACC. I like FSU in this one.
FSU 33 Louisville 21
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