Keys to an FSU victory over Miami

FSU (5-3, 3-3 ACC) travels to south Florida to take on Miami (4-4, 2-2) as a 7.5-point favorite. And there are more than bragging rights on the line. The Seminoles have a chance to beat the Hurricanes for the second year in a row and become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2019.

The Osceola staff offers its keys to an FSU win over Miami and predicts the score as well.

Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz

Safety First: It looks to me Miami’s 22nd-ranked run defense matches up well against FSU’s 14th-ranked rushing offense, but UM has a tendency to commit their back half to do so. FSU’s receivers can discourage that run-stopping tendency by making plays on the perimeter. A couple of chunk throws and those safeties will have to abandon defending the run.

Verse Vice: Miami has not had much of a running game so the secondary should be able to focus on what Miami does best — pass. Force Miami into long drives, not long passes. It's important FSU gets a pass rush from Verse, Payton, Lovett and the rest of the front four without having to blitz corners and safeties who need to account for TE Will Mallory and wheel routes to Knighton.

Not-So Sweet Emotion: Be emotionally ready for a brawl and to bring the heat during the play but, with the emotional Intelligence to walk away between plays, which is easier said than done. Don’t allow yourself to get in the mud with the pigs because you both get dirty, and the pigs enjoy it.

Prediction:

FSU 31, Miami 28

Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva

QB Won: This game is always about the QBs. For the FSU offense, it's critical to unleash the full skill set of Jordan Travis. His emergence as a passer this season has resulted in less dependence on his improvisational plays to move the ball and generate big plays. One would argue the threat of using his legs is enough to have defenses account for his running ability. However, the stakes for FSU are now the highest. There should be no holding back. Designed runs, RPOs, counter/zone reads, and extending pass plays need to be a part going forward. Timely use of his skills running/throwing will extend drives, create big plays, red-zone efficiency, and open opportunities for others. For the Miami offense, its simply who will play? Is Tyler Van Dyke UM's best chance to generate offense? The UM offense has struggled even with TVD so whether it's Van Dyke or Jake Garcia may not matter. The caveat would be Jacurri Brown and his ability to run. But one thing is for sure, the UM offense hasn't been able to generate a lot if big plays and FSU can't allow that to start on Saturday.

Decisions, Decisions: Big decisions are amplified in this game. FSU fans hope that coach Mike Norvell is feeling it and the team has his back when inevitably the Noles go on fourth down, a trick play is called, or the Wildcat or quick toss is called on the goal line. It's easy to second guess after the result is known and Norvell is not afraid to make a risky call. In this game, FSU fans hope his discernment and feel for the moment is on point.

Prediction:

FSU 37, Miami 16

Osceola Managing Editor Bob Ferrante

Minimize mistakes: There are only two scenarios in my view where Miami wins this game. The first is with Tyler Van Dyke returning to play and doing so at an efficient level. The second is if FSU has the self-inflicted miscues, such as turnovers or pre-snap penalties. FSU has shown the margin for error is thin and the turnover margin has been lopsided the last four games, more of an issue in the losses vs. the top-25 teams and less vs. Georgia Tech. While it would be good for the FSU defense to end the turnover drought, it would be better to see a positive turnover margin and that's realistic considering the emotion of a rivalry game.

Set the tone early: By run, pass or balanced offense as well as forcing Miami's offense off the field, this feels like a game where the Seminoles need to put points on the board early and don't give the Hurricanes confidence for an upset. This may not be a good Miami team but there are enough skill players to make this a long night if Florida State leaves the door open.

Prediction: The Seminoles force at least one turnover (how's that for going out on a limb?), take a comfortable lead going into the half and hold off the Hurricanes' third-quarter comeback effort to pick up a second straight win over Miami.

Florida State 31, Miami 17

Osceola Football Writer Nick Carlisle

Takeaway Turnaround: As I’m sure the other Osceola staffers have at least mentioned, which quarterback Florida State is going to face is the biggest question coming into this weekend’s game. The current talk is that it’s going to be Van Dyke but who knows if it’s a smoke show? Regardless of whether it’s Van Dyke or Garcia taking snaps for the Hurricanes, the offense has proven to be very turnover-prone. In their game against Duke a few weeks ago, Miami turned the ball over eight times. You read that correctly, eight times. On the season, Miami has a turnover margin of -4. Florida State on the other hand has struggled getting takeaways this season. With Florida State finally returning to full strength on the defensive line and with Miami being highly questionable in the state of its offensive line, if Florida State can get Van Dyke to put one on the ground or throw up some ducks, it would go a long way towards gaining the upper hand at Hard Rock.

Press Less: For whatever reason since the Boston College game, the Seminoles have had the tendency to just try and do too much sometimes in big games and it has cost them in some tough losses. They’ve admitted as much in postgame comments. That said, this is a rivalry game against Miami with bowl-eligibility on the line for Florida State. This game means a lot for this young football team. If you’re Florida State you would love to earn a bowl bid on your rival's turf but, with how the team has handled expectations and big moments thus far this season, it makes you a little cautious about a game that Florida State is favored in by a touchdown. Stick to the game plan, don’t get too cute (this goes for players and coaches) and embrace the moment.

Prediction: Florida State is the healthier, more confident team and it seems to embrace playing on the road. For the second straight week, FSU goes in not knowing definitively which quarterback they are going to face. Regardless, Florida State’s defensive line has the potential to really impact this game and give the offense time to get going on the road. If it’s Garcia behind center for Miami, I like the Seminoles 31-14, but if it’s Van Dyke, Miami is likely good for a few more explosive plays against a susceptible FSU secondary.

FSU 31, Miami 24

Osceola Football Writer Curt Weiler

Start fast: Weird things can happen in rivalry games. Miami may look quite overmatched on paper, but if it hangs around in this game, it will no doubt start to believe it is capable of pulling off the upset. The same goes for the Miami fan base, which will no doubt start loud but could be silenced, or at least muffled, by a fast, tone-setting start from the Seminoles. If the offense gets a quick, easy score and the defense gets a quick stop, the Hurricanes could be in for a long night. The team's resolve in terms of quit factor hasn't really been tested this season.

Air it out: Miami has definitely been a bit lucky it hasn't played more teams that have very capable passing attacks. The two main ones that did, Middle Tennessee State and North Carolina, both completed 64 or more percent of their passes and threw for a combined 717 passing yards and five touchdowns against the Hurricanes. Even though Miami hasn't played the toughest slate, it is allowing 8.7 yards per pass attempt. That's tied for 121st nationally and better than only West Virginia and Vanderbilt among Power Five teams. FSU's passing attack should also be able to exploit this unless it has improved dramatically of late. Jordan Travis being on point and the receiver unit having a good game would significantly boost FSU's odds of winning.

Prediction: The more I think about it, the harder it is for me to see this as a particularly competitive game. Weird things can happen in rivalries, yes, but I'm not sure Miami is a good enough team to exploit that. Unless FSU plays down to its competition, something it hasn't really done this season, I think this may be a comfortable win to extend the rivalry winning streak.

FSU 38, Miami 17

Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham

Cover the Spread: FSU owns one of the best big play passing games in all of college football (ranked 10th in number of pass plays over 20 yards) while Miami gives up pass plays of 20 yards by the handful (ranked 88th in this category). We will see FSU use multiple personnel groups, but it will be interesting to see how the Canes defend FSU when they use four- and five-receiver sets. There is almost no way they line up with less than six in the box when Travis is lined up with a back next to him and they will have to keep five in the box even when FSU is in an empty backfield to account for his ability to run the ball. Either way it puts Miami in a dilemma. The other part of this equation is how does Miami defend FSU in run-friendly sets: 11 (with unit tight end), 12 or 21-personnel. If they load the box, walk a safety down, it leaves them vulnerable to the pass. If they play two-high safeties, FSU will have the advantage in the run game. I think FSU has an advantage when it comes to their offense vs. the Miami defense.

Four>Five: Defensively, FSU's front four needs to noticeably and impactfully be better than Miami's offensive line, which could start two or three redshirt freshman in the game. The thing Miami does best is throw the ball (when Van Dyke is playing) and they will have to throw with some success to beat FSU without him. Miami has rushed for more than 100 yards just twice in its last five games. The Canes have thrown the ball 31 or more times in seven of their eight games and have thrown 41 or more times in half of their games. If FSU can get to the quarterback with four rushers and stop the run with five or six in the box it will allow FSU to make more coverage-friendly calls on defense. It could and should limit what has been the strength of the Miami offense this season.

Prediction:

FSU 31, Miami 22

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