9/2/2023 football Edit

Keys to an FSU win over LSU

Jordan Travis needs to be a difference maker and help FSU capitalize on mismatches at receiver and tight end. (Melina Myers)

Patrick Burnham • TheOsceola

Football/Recruiting Analyst

The Osceola staff takes a look at the keys to a victory for Florida State, ranked 8th in the country heading into the 2023 season opener, over 5th ranked LSU on Sunday at 7:30 p.m. (ABC) in Orlando's Camping World Stadium.

Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva:

This will be a game of small margins. Two good football teams. It's simple for me, really:

1) Jordan Travis needs to be the difference maker we all think he is. He needs to pick up where he left off at the end of 2022. His mastery of Mike Norvell's offense needs to be evident. Get FSU in the right play, right run, right decisions on RPOs, QB run reads, deliver the ball on time in the right spots. And a few timely WOW plays would be nice. Especially in the red zone. FSU will need points. Because...

2) FSU needs to mitigate the impact of LSU QB Jayden Daniels. He's the key for LSU the same way Jordan Travis is for FSU. If he can be contained, harassed and forced into some bad decisions, then FSU has a chance. It will be tough because this offense will be difficult to defend with skill on the outside, an elite TE, and what LSU believes is a much improved offensive line. FSU has struggled recently with mobile quarterbacks. If Adam Fuller's defense is to take the next step, containing the most talented QB on FSU's schedule is a must.

Prediction: FSU 45, LSU 38

Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz:

1) Brian Kelly has had plenty of experience against Jordan Travis, Mike Norvell and offensive coordinator/line coach Alex Atkins. Kelly and his defensive coordinator, Matt House, have had eight months to devise a plan to mitigate the Seminoles' potentially high-powered offense. What they choose to do, and how Travis and Norvell are able to respond, will dictate the outcome of this game.

My hunch is the LSU coaches spent the 25 practices allotted to them to build an offense and a defense that will capitalize on the strength of their personnel and the SEC schedule ahead and not scheming up a surprise attack just for the Seminoles. The Tigers' defensive front seven is stout. What will Kelly and House do to help their secondary? Will they rely on winning one-on-one battles across the front, bringing additional pressure, disguising coverages? Poise will be key for Florida State. As Norvell so often preaches, "Bad things happen. How you respond is all that matters." Poise and response will be key. The outcome of the game won't be determined by what LSU chooses to do but by how effectively Travis, Norvell and Atkins are able to respond.

2) Defensively, the key for Florida State is to contain the perimeter run. Don't let the ball bounce outside the tackles, especially when it's in the hands of quarterback Jayden Daniels. FSU's defense, especially their perimeter players, need to force runners — including the quarterback — to cut back and not bounce outside. Jared Verse, Patrick Payton and all the other position players assigned to perimeter containment must play physical and disciplined football on Sunday night and the rest will fall into place.

Prediction: FSU 34, LSU 27

Osceola Managing Editor Bob Ferrante:

1) Capitalize on the matchups: FSU has a definite strength (mismatches at receiver and tight end) and can expose a perceived preseason weakness of LSU (cornerbacks). Mike Norvell is playing with the best deck of cards he's ever had at FSU, with taller, athletic options like Johnny Wilson, Keon Coleman, Kyle Morlock and Markeston Douglas to slippery slot types like Destyn Hill and Winston Wright. Norvell and offensive coordinator Alex Atkins have a run-first mindset but the mismatches will allow them to use the pass to win the game. And good luck trying to figure out pre-snap what the Seminoles will do when there are two tight ends on the field, because they can pound it with a veteran line and Trey Benson or look to pass.

2) Win (or at least don't screw up) on special teams: There could be a dozen keys in this game, and there's concern over Jayden Daniels' ability as a dual-threat QB as well as linebacker Harold Perkins, how well the defenses will tackle in week 1 and turnovers. But if the Seminoles make enough kicks, flip the field and get enough positives out of the return game, they will win. There will be doubts about Ryan Fitzgerald's accuracy, and Norvell will have a tough decision on fourth downs in field-goal range — go for it or kick? Is Keon Coleman as "natural" a punt returner as the coaches say he has been in scrimmages? Will FSU miss special teams standouts like Wyatt Rector and Brendan Gant? Alex Mastromanno has been consistently good but will need to do so again on Sunday night. In a game that most of us feel will be tight, special teams mistakes could be magnified.

Prediction: FSU 34, LSU 31

Osceola Senior Writer Curt Weiler:

1) Attack LSU’s corners. Most of LSU’s defense is supposed to be very good entering the 2023 season. The defensive line, even without Maason Smith, should be solid. The safeties are experienced. The linebackers are exceptional. The one major question? Cornerback. Out of necessity, the Tigers hit the portal hard this offseason bringing in cornerbacks. Between an injury to one transfer and a suspension to another, there are some real questions about that unit. FSU’s wide receiver unit anchored by Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman will be a very challenging matchup to kick off the season. I’m thinking FSU’s competent, multifaceted passing game will go right at LSU’s cornerbacks and if LSU can’t shut it down, I find it hard to believe the Tigers will win.

2) Do a better job of keeping Jayden Daniels in the pocket. Last year, quite a bit of LSU’s offense, especially early in the game, went through Jayden Daniels’ legs. Daniels has 114 of 139 rushing yards in last year’s FSU game. Once again, there are real questions about LSU’s running backs entering the FSU game with a few banged up or otherwise unavailable. So once again, it seems like Daniels, who led the Tigers in rushing yards last year, will again be a focal point of LSU’s ground game against the Seminoles. It won’t be easy to stifle what should be a very good LSU offense but one potential way to do that would be by largely keeping Daniels in the pocket and making you beat him with his arm instead of his legs. He didn’t show that to be his strength last season, with nearly 50% of his 2022 passes traveling between 0 and 10 yards downfield.

Prediction: FSU 38, LSU 31

Osceola Recruiting Analyst Charles Fishbein:

1) Keep Travis upright. Keeping Jordan Travis healthy is the main key to the FSU offense. I don't believe they can win if Travis is not healthy or gets injured in the game. The offense would get one dimensional and would allow LSU to focus on FSU run game.

2) Stop the run. LSU is already down one running back with John Emery being out. FSU struggled to stop the run last season. They should have one of the better defensive lines in the ACC. If LSU is able to run, they will most likely win the game.

Prediction: FSU 34, LSU 24

Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham:

1) Stop the run, pin your ears back. I think FSU needs to control the line of scrimmage against the LSU offense. The strength of the Seminoles defense coming out of camp is its starting front four and its depth at defensive tackle. And this group needs to validate that on Sunday night. Getting Fabien Lovett back to full speed is huge, and Braden Fiske looks like a force to be reckoned with coming out of fall camp and Josh Farmer and Dennis Briggs offer experienced depth. And if FSU can force LSU into passing situations and keep them behind the chains, FSU should be able to successfully pressure the quarterback with Jared Verse, Patrick Payton, Gilber Edmond and Fiske. I don't think a one-handed LSU offensive attack can beat FSU.

2) Extra possessions. Both teams have dynamic quarterbacks who are expected to lead offenses with big play potential. The team that has the most offensive possessions will have a decided advantage. Mike Norvell is an aggressive play caller and will take chances. The Seminoles need to create some extra possessions against LSU be it turnovers, fourth-down conversions or possibly using fake punts and field goals.