Florida State (6-3, 4-3 ACC) closes out its 2022 ACC and road schedule looking for its seventh win of the year against Syracuse (6-3, 3-2). The Seminoles are a touchdown favorite heading into Saturday night's game. The Osceola staff offer its keys to an FSU victory over the Orange.
Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz
Forward Focus: The primary key to victory over a good Syracuse team is to avoid a letdown after the big win over arch-rival Miami. And turning that key had to start on Monday when mental and emotional preparation began. Florida State is good when focused for 60 minutes and will need to be dialed in on Saturday as the Orange are capable.
Mirror Miami: More specifically, I like a game plan very similar to the Miami game plan. The Seminoles' running game has an advantage against a young 'Cuse front, so I see trench warfare as a key to victory. Run it and force SU's linebackers and safeties to commit to stop the run, which should make throwing it less risky against a dangerously-opportunistic secondary.
It will be interesting to see who wins the big-play battle. FSU is a national leader in big plays and Syracuse a national leader in stopping them. The Seminoles also have an advantage in the trench defensively with Fabien Lovett and Jared Verse back in the lineup, so a key will be for the front to make Garrett Shrader uncomfortable. I think linebacker play will also be a key as Shrader likes to run it and to target his tight end and running back Sean Tucker, who will often be covered by linebackers.
Prediction: A focused FSU team has significant advantages on both sides of the ball and could win this one 38-14, a less-focused FSU wins it 28-21.
FSU 34 Syracuse 17
Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva
Shred Shrader: He'll probably play, and in the minds of the Orange he is the difference between 6-0 and a three-game losing streak. They're not wrong and he gives the entire team hope, belief, and a chance. He is a very effective runner, above average passer, but is foremost a competitor and leader. FSU's defensive front seven needs to harass and make plays on him. Keep him uncomfortable and running for his life. If he struggles, they struggle.
Control the game with OL: I don't think it's realistic to think FSU will have a 50 to 20 run-to-pass ratio like last week vs. the 'Canes but Syracuse has been vulnerable to dominating running games recently due to injuries and an undersized defensive line in their 3-5-3 scheme. FSU has shown the ability to generate a running game vs. every team on the schedule and the offensive line has really seemed to have turned a corner in terms of consistency and game control. These two things seem to point to an FSU offense that should control large portions of the game through the running game but also set up some opportunities through the air as a result. It's a pretty basic plan but it's an obvious way to go for FSU. However, this offensive line has struggled with defenses that run the 3-5-3 like Wake, NC State and Louisville. It will be interesting to see what plays out, Syracuse's inability to stop the run or FSU's difficulty with their scheme.
FSU 38, Syracuse 17
Osceola Football Writer Curt Weiler
No Tuck and Run: Syracuse running back Sean Tucker hasn’t exactly built upon his breakout 2021 season. Last year, he had nearly 1,500 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging over six yards per carry. This season, he hasn't been bad by any means but he’s averaging more than a yard less per carry (5.01) and has 777 yards and seven touchdowns through nine games. He’s been held under 100 rushing yards in his last four games, but remains a lethal threat who could single-handedly keep the Orange in the game. Keeping him bottled is critical for FSU’s chances.
Ball Control: While Syracuse enters Saturday on a three-game losing streak, it is definitely a better team than the last two the Seminoles have faced. The Orange’s defense has been a bit banged up of late but could present some challenges. One area where Syracuse has struggled though is in third-down defense. The Orange has allowed opposing teams to convert 37.6% of their third downs. 11th out of 14 ACC teams. FSU, meanwhile, is tied for first in the ACC and 11th nationally having converted 50% of its third downs this season. Staying on the field and keeping Syracuse’s offense on the sidelines will be a chance for the Seminoles to wear down a somewhat depleted Syracuse defense.
Prediction:
I don’t think FSU will come away with a third straight blowout win Saturday. Unless Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader is unavailable once again, in which the Seminoles may coast again. It seems like Shrader will at least try to play so I’ll say FSU wins but not like it did the last two weeks.
FSU 31, Syracuse 17
Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham
No Juice for SU: While Syracuse's offense may not be simple schematically, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out who FSU needs to stop. Running back Sean Tucker and quarterback Garrett Shrader have produced 82 percent of the Orange offense on the ground. Tucker and wide receiver Oronde Gadsden have combined to catch 50 percent of their team's passes this season. FSU's defense knows who will be getting (or keeping) the football and it needs to limit them by hustling to the ball as a unit and getting them to the ground. The Orange offense has shown it has very little juice outside of these three players this season, the Seminoles defense need to but a tight squeeze on the trio.
New York State of Mind: I agree with Jerry. FSU is the deeper, a more talented, and by all indications, a healthier football team than Syracuse. Even though the Orange have lost three in a row, just like FSU did in October, they had a chance to tie and win the game on their last offensive possession against Clemson. And the Notre Dame game was a one-possession game going into the fourth quarter. It is senior night for the second most successful team Dino Babers has had at Syracuse and there is probably nothing more his team would like than to guarantee themselves a winning season by beating FSU in the 2022 home finale. Last week's win over Miami has been the talk of Tallahassee and the FSU fan base all week this week. FSU can ill afford to have a South Beach hangover against this Syracuse team. To quote Billy Joel, FSU must show up in a "New York State of Mind" or it will find itself in a four-quarter battle which it could anyway.
Prediction: One of the trademarks of this FSU football team has been resolve. Shrader will make a difference in this game if healthy, but I think if FSU shows up with the right mindset, they will simply have too much manpower for Syracuse.
FSU 30 Syracuse 23
Editor Bob Ferrante
Stop the run: Garrett Shrader has improved as a passer, but Syracuse's best chance to pull off the upset is to use his legs in combination with tailback Sean Tucker. When the Orange win, they run — Tucker has averaged 107.3 rushing yards in Syracuse's six wins. When the Seminoles win, they limit the run and are allowing just 3.77 yards per carry (47th in the FBS) in 2022.
Continue to limit mistakes: FSU is the only team standing in its way from winning five straight games to finish the regular season. The Seminoles played a relatively clean game at Miami and need to keep doing that, continuing to shake off the reputation they built (114th in the FBS in penalties). FSU's turnover margin is back at +1 after generating four takeaways against the Hurricanes.
FSU 27, Syracuse 17
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