Mike Martin Jr. knew Mat Nelson was going to be an early round pick in the Major League Baseball Draft dating back to his freshman year.
But the Florida State head coach admits he had no idea back then just how high Nelson's ceiling was offensively. After an All-America year in which the FSU catcher led the nation in home runs with 23, now everyone knows about that ceiling.
Which is why Nelson may have very well worked himself into a first-round selection in the 2021 draft, which airs live Sunday night (7 p.m. ET) on the MLB Network.
"There's a really good chance he'll be a first-rounder," Martin Jr. said earlier this week. "Going into this year, he was probably 3 to 5, 4 go 6, something like that. But he worked his tail off. Got himself in great shape. Obviously performed. And we really think he's going to be a first-rounder.
"He should be."
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Nelson came into the year considered one of the best defensive catching prospects in college baseball. But his bat was still a bit of an unknown.
As a freshman in 2019, he was the starting catcher on a College World Series team and hit .282 with six home runs and 29 RBIs. Then in the COVID-shortened season of 2020, he hit .250 with a homer and 14 RBIs in 17 games.
Then came 2021. And Nelson burst onto the scene as one of the top power hitters in the country. He wound up hitting a team-high .330 with 23 homers and 66 RBIs on his way to being named the ACC Player of the Year.
His slugging percentage of .773 was fifth best in the nation, and he became the first Seminole since Jeff Ledbetter in 1982 to lead the country in homers.
He also threw out 50 percent of attempted base-stealers, including a stretch of eight in a row.
All of this is how Nelson went from a potential Top 5-round draft pick to one who could very well be the Seminoles' 21st first-round selection, and the first FSU catcher to be taken that high since Buster Posey in 2008.
"He sold out to going the other way, and he hit a ton of home runs to right-center and centerfield," Martin Jr. said. "And doing his thing behind the plate. He's tough as nails, too. That's something that people don't realize. It was borderline child abuse using him as much as we did."
But it's hard to rest one of the best players in the country. And for all of 2021, Nelson was indeed one of the best players in the country.
When he arrived at Florida State, Martin Jr. knew he had a potential star defensively. Nelson was already really, really good behind the plate.
"He's always had the hands and the arm," Martin Jr. said. "Even as a freshman, I would have [umpires] come and tell me, 'He's the best in the league.' He's really hard to call balls and strikes behind because he makes everything look like a strike.'"
Martin Jr. thought Nelson could be a major-leaguer even before his offensive jump in 2021. But now, with a power bat thrown into the mix, Nelson could very well be on the fast track to the bigs.
Either way, he figures to hear his name called early on Sunday night.
"There's something else you're leaving out," Martin Jr. said. "His athleticism. You don't have to worry about him scoring from second base on a base hit or scoring from first on a double. Because he can run. You can hit-and-run with him.
"Guys like that, they're valuable, man. They're hard to find. You can hit-and-run with him when he's at the plate, or when he's on the bases."
For obvious reasons, there are some players Martin Jr. would rather not hear their names called all that high on Sunday. Some he'd like to get into school and others he'd like to return to school so they can boost their draft stock (and maybe help the team in the process) with a better year in 2022.
So, he's like every college coach in the country in that sense.
But with a player like Nelson, who gave so much to the program and had an all-time great season in 2021, who plays the toughest position in the sport, you can bet the FSU head coach will be rooting for his name to be called as early as possible.
"One hundred percent," Martin Jr. said. "We care deeply about each other. And we want our guys taken care of. ... And it's really more special when it's someone who's put in three years of blood, sweat and tears and now they're getting paid. It's even more satisfying."
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