For the most part this season, fourth down has been an effective weapon for the Florida State offense.

Through the first five games of the season, the Seminoles had converted 8 of their 10 fourth-down conversion attempts (80%), missing just once against Southern Miss and once against Clemson.

That's a welcome change for the Seminoles considering they were 8 of 23 (34.8%) on fourth down in 2022 and 7 of 21 (33.3%) in 2021.

That strong start on fourth downs also helped make up for the fact that FSU converted just 23 of its 59 third downs (39%) through the first five games of the season. FSU head coach Mike Norvell has said on multiple occasions that he lumps third and fourth-down success together, meaning a third down can be a success even if it's short of the sticks if it sets up a fourth and reasonable that the offense is able to convert.

The last two weeks, however, that narrative has flipped. FSU converted over 50% of its third downs in each of its last two games against Duke and Syracuse, raising its season average to 43.8%, 37th nationally. But over that same span, FSU has failed to convert all four of its fourth-down attempts over the last two games, going 0 for 2 in each game.

The Syracuse failures were less scrutinized. The decisions were whether to attempt field goals or try to extend drives and score touchdowns. FSU failed once inside the opponent's five and then once again inside the Syracuse 30 on consecutive drives. However, the game never really felt like it was in danger and FSU wound up pulling away for a 38-point win.

This time, there was a bit more scrutiny. Not so much on the first attempt, a fourth-and-one run that was stuffed at the Duke 36-yard line on the opening drive. But there were plenty of questions in the wake of Norvell's decision on FSU's second drive with his team trailing 7-0 to try another fourth-and-one run from FSU's own 36-yard line that was stopped in the backfield.

The nature of fourth-down analytics and how they are crafted to simulate the best decision for any given scenario means they can't be results-based. The situation can't be viewed as a failure simply because the play didn't work when the numbers advised going for it.

And although going for it on your own side of the field in the first quarter while trailing by just seven points may seem ill-advised to some, Norvell still stood by the decision when addressing it at his weekly press conference Monday.

"As you go into a game, you're trying to maximize each drive. We have fourth-and-1. The numbers speak to yes (you should go). Early in the game, yes," Norvell said. "I feel like that's one of those things, you're up, you're down, obviously all those things you take into it. We're down seven. I felt good about what we have. We don't execute it very well and we get a TFL (tackle for loss) in that situation. But I still felt good about the decision."

However FSU fans felt about the decision in the moment, it didn't wind up being too costly. The FSU defense forced a three-and-out and held Duke to a field goal despite the extremely advantageous starting field position for the Blue Devils. That 10-0 deficit would be long forgotten by the time the Seminoles wrapped up their 38-20 win over Duke a few hours later.

"We trust Mike and whatever they do and then we go and react. A lot of times, those things work. We get first downs, we go down and score. When we don't, then it's our turn. That's how you look at it," Fuller said. "There are times that we need them to pick us up and there are times that they need us to pick us up, sometimes our kickoff return team needs to pick up the team. That's just part of being on a team...When you're really balanced and you're good in a bunch of different ways, situationally, on both sides of the ball, that's how you wear down teams. That's how what happened in the Duke game happens."

Fuller's understanding probably comes from an understanding of how Norvell thinks on these fourth-down matters. And the FSU head coach certainly isn't alone on that train of thought. FSU's 14 fourth-down conversion attempts this season are tied for 50th-most nationally. 17 teams have already gone for it 20 or more times this season and five -- including Arizona State led by former FSU offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham -- have gone 25 or more times this season.

Only nine college football teams this season are averaging less than one fourth-down attempt per game.

"We're trying to maximize the possessions we have. In college football, I mean especially playing really good teams, you've got to capitalize on them," Norvell said. "Now, there's been times that I've been fourth-and-one situations and I've punted the ball. It's like it all equates to the game. But in that moment, I felt confident in what we would do. Obviously that did not play out. But also our defense did a good job kind of having our back and really holding it to three and forcing a long field goal, and our guys were able to overcome that."

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