Oddsmakers forecast improvement for FSU Football, but tough October
The good news for the Florida State football program is that oddsmakers are projecting marked improvement for Mike Norvell's squad during the 2022 season, based on offseason win total projections.
The bad news is that based on those same projections, the Seminoles will have to deal with playing three of their toughest four opponents in back-to-back-to-back weeks in October.
According to online sportsbook PointsBet, the over/under for FSU's wins this season is 7.5, which is an upgrade of two wins over where sportsbooks had the Seminoles slotted last year at this time.
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In 2021, Norvell's first full season as head coach, oddsmakers had FSU's total at 5.5 wins, and the Seminoles finished just under that with a 5-7 record. A stunning home loss to FCS opponent Jacksonville State was the difference in falling under that total.
But this season, with the vast majority of the team's production returning and at least 10 college transfers expected to make contributions, the projections have improved to 7.5.
Having said that, the Seminoles do have a challenging schedule in 2022, with only three of 10 opponents listed by PointsBet projected to have records below .500. Those three are Georgia Tech (3.5 wins), Syracuse (4.5) and Louisville (5.5).
Louisiana and FCS opponent Duquesne are not listed by PointsBet, but the other seven schools all have win totals of at least 6.5 games. And four of those seven have totals of 8.5 or higher -- Clemson (10.5), Miami (8.5), N.C. State (8.5) and Wake Forest (8.5).
While Norvell has said he likes the way the schedule sets up, it is worth noting that three of the four teams with the highest win projections will face the Seminoles within a span of 14 days in October. Fortunately for the 'Noles, two of those games will be at home.
FSU has Wake Forest in Doak Campbell Stadium on Oct. 1, followed by a road trip to N.C. State on Oct. 8 and a home date with Clemson on Oct. 15.
Here is a look at FSU's complete schedule with last year's records and this year's win projections:
| Date | Opponent | Location | 2021 record | 2022 W/L Total* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8/27 |
Duquesne |
Home |
7-3 |
N/A |
|
9/4 |
LSU |
New Orleans |
6-7 |
7.5 |
|
9/10 |
BYE |
------ |
------ |
------ |
|
9/16 |
Louisville |
Away |
6-7 |
5.5 |
|
9/24 |
Boston College |
Home |
6-6 |
6.5 |
|
10/1 |
Wake Forest |
Home |
11-3 |
8.5 |
|
10/8 |
N.C. State |
Away |
9-3 |
8.5 |
|
10/15 |
Clemson |
Home |
10-3 |
10.5 |
|
10/22 |
BYE |
------ |
------ |
------ |
|
10/29 |
Georgia Tech |
Home |
3-9 |
3.5 |
|
11/5 |
Miami |
Away |
7-5 |
8.5 |
|
11/12 |
Syracuse |
Away |
5-7 |
4.5 |
|
11/19 |
Louisiana |
Home |
13-1 |
N/A |
|
11/25 |
Florida |
Home |
6-7 |
7.5 |
Other notable projected win totals in the ACC are: North Carolina (7.5), Virginia (7.5), Virginia Tech (5.5) and Duke (3.5).
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