Sporting 'Noles: Assessing FSU-Louisville from a Fantasy perspective

There’s no getting around it. Being winless after three games is not ideal.

Not for Florida State. Not for Indiana State.

But for those who are still invested — passionately and monetarily alike — there are many ways to stay locked into the game they love every week.

In examination of Florida State’s tilt with Louisville on Saturday (3:30 p.m., ESPN2), one can learn how sports handicappers envision a game going simply by looking into the key numbers they release to the public.

This week, we turn to the projections at PrizePicks.com and judge their projections against what we know so far.

Editor’s note: Our projections are for entertainment purposes and entertainment purposes only.

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The take: It’s hard to project much of anything with Travis from week to week. Health and/or freshness have always been a factor during his time at FSU -- and that’s even before we discuss the two-quarterback system with McKenzie Milton.

According to Pro Football Focus and the eye test, Louisville can be had down the field. Though Travis has proven this season he can hit a home run play with his arm, it would take consistent work beyond one shot to get over the 152.5-yard hump. Hopefully for the ‘Noles he goes over, but that’s the heart talking.

Verdict: Under 152.5 passing yards

The take: Cunningham has gone over this number in his last two games and several times in 2020, including an afternoon in which his offense bludgeoned Florida State. Your play here comes down to how you answer a simple question: Will Florida State’s front-four affect Cunningham enough to consistently impede downfield throws?

The problem for the Seminoles here is that their secondary has given up shot plays to all three opponents this season. And given how Scott Satterfield likes to isolate skill players on linebackers (not exactly FSU’s strength either), it will be a tough ask to keep the ever-elusive Cunningham in check.

Verdict: Over

The take: This one is fascinating to parse. The ‘Noles have two consistent running backs in Treshaun Ward and Jashaun Corbin. Both have shown the ability to make things happen in big ways, even with suboptimal run-blocking in front of them.

If you’re nervous about Corbin exceeding this number, it’s because of how quickly he was yanked from the rotation at Wake Forest. Should Corbin have ball security issues again this week, will the Seminole coaching staff stick with him?

The last big “if” is the availability of two key pieces along the FSU offensive line. If tackle Robert Scott and center Maurice Smith are available this weekend, the chances that Corbin goes for a big number increase dramatically.

Bottom line? Amidst so much negativity, let’s be optimistic here. FSU gets at least one of its two offensive linemen back and Corbin takes advantage of a less-than-stellar tackling Cardinal defense.

Verdict: Over

Though we're making some fun projections here, it's really hard to guess what FSU's offense is going to do. Some of that is due to the unpredictable nature of how Mike Norvell and staff have shuffled quarterbacks, and some of it is how inconsistent Louisville has been defensively.

When you're playing below-average football, consistency is typically lacking. That's likely to be the case for both teams on Saturday.

Tom Lang is Warchant's director of original content. Contact him by email at tom@warchant.com and follow @_TomLang on Twitter.

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Talk about this story with other Florida State football fans in the Tribal Council