Sporting 'Noles: Assessing FSU-North Carolina from a Fantasy perspective

Whoa mama, we’re on a heater!

Now that the mother-of-all-jinxes is out of the way, it’s time to take a look at this week’s key numbers as the ‘Noles head to Chapel Hill. We’ve started undefeated through two weeks of our PrizePicks.com projections and are looking to continue the winning ways.

Some important items to keep an eye on this week:

* Weather: Saturday forecasts call for rain and thunderstorms in the early hours (continuing from Friday night) with significant chances of rain remaining (40 percent) through kickoff. Will there be a slick turf track?

* QB Health: This will be a weekly concern for FSU “investors” for the rest of the season, and it will be a concern no matter if Jordan Travis or McKenzie Milton takes every rep in practice. Making it through 60 minutes of football is an accomplishment for either player (Travis is listed as the starter this week.)

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Recap:

Syracuse Week: 3-0

Season Record: 5-0*

*We’re done playing nice. If FSU is going to shuffle the quarterbacks and we hit an under, so be it. A win is a win! We’re going to take a bigger risk in that regard right now.

On to the slate!

The take: If Travis were to eclipse this total, it would be the first time he’s passed for 133 or more yards all season. So why is the number starting that high? Two reasons: First, using insights from our pals at Pro Football Focus, a review of the coverage grades helps it all make sense. To date, the coverage grade of FSU’s Power 5 competition averages 19th-best nationally. North Carolina ranks 84th.

The second reason is the gambling spread. If Vegas is correct in its hunch that this is a 17- or 18-point margin for North Carolina, FSU will be playing from behind. This means more pass calls.

Your limiting factors are not without significance: Travis’ health, wide receiver aptitude, and if it gets ugly, maybe Chubba Purdy’s number gets called. Still, we point to the sky on this one for the first time all year.

Verdict: Over

The take: The senior has eclipsed 70 or more rushing yards just once this season, and that was when he went scorched Earth for 198 yards on 20 carries against Virginia. Everything was working against the Cavaliers that night for the North Carolina offense, as it produced 59 points.

If you are playing the over here, it’s because you think this game looks like UNC-Virginia, and Chandler will get some serious reps against a defeated Seminole defense. If you like the under, you think the game stays relatively in touch with FSU’s front-four handling business.

Given that Chandler and the UNC ground game haven’t produced much against decent defensive lines, we’re going to bank on a spirited FSU effort forcing Sam Howell’s arm to beat them.

Verdict: Under

The take: Though the previous blurb would have been the perfect segue to Sam Howell, we’re not playing his number this week. Weather concerns plus the volatility of the North Carolina offensive line render his 304.5-yard figure tough to touch.

Downs, however, is a different story. Though he’s had some issues with catching the football the last two weeks, the 5-foot-10 sophomore is a complete receiving threat. Downs has the guts to catch contested passes over the middle and the speed to turn a short catch into a 60-yard house call. He can burn you over the top as well.

Independent of weather, Downs is the go-to guy in this offense. Despite an obvious deficiency in the secondary, Mack Brown made the mistake of trying to beat Florida State on the ground in 2020. This year, independent of weather, we think Downs will be a centerpiece of Brown's FSU plan.

Verdict: Over

The two quarterbacks are fascinating watches this week. Jordan Travis’ rushing total was not up for play with Prize Picks, but if it was, it would have been enticing. North Carolina has a tough time with the quarterback run -- much more than the traditional running game. We’re also keeping an eye on how Florida State’s receivers do against the worst coverage unit (not named Jacksonville State) they’ve seen so far this season. If not this Saturday, FSU targets, it’s probably never.

As stated a million times, the Sam Howell experience will be directly tied to how much pressure he feels. In truth, that one part of the game may affect these offensive totals, for both teams, more than any other factor.

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