The streak, she’s a goner. Thanks a heap, UMass!

After a scintillating 8-0 start to the Sporting ‘Noles season, the card didn’t just lose one prop last week, it went under .500. An easy touchdown drop from Ontaria Wilson and extended use of Jashaun Corbin in a 35-point game spelled doom to the rushing and receiving props. We did have Jordan Travis pegged, however,

But enough about Walt Bell Homecoming Weekend, it’s time for an honest opponent. As always, the PrizePicks.com numbers are interesting for the Seminoles and Tigers.

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Recap:

UMass Week: 1-2

Season Record: 9-2

Props, commence!

The take: If there were any doubts about the FSU offensive philosophy, a 45/15 run-pass ratio against UMass should settle the matter. Against an opponent that the Seminoles could choose their path to points, they said “opponent be darned, the ground game is what we’re about.”

That insight, plus the explosiveness shown from a dinged-up Jashaun Corbin, make this prop an easy call. Corbin’s season high in rushing attempts is only 15, but he’s cleared the 79-yard mark in four of Florida State’s seven games. If there was ever a week to give Corbin 20 carries, this is the one. If the redshirt sophomore breaks off one of his customary explosive runs, this number becomes well within reach.

Verdict: Over

The take: Like a lot of things on Saturday, the Will Shipley question is hard to flesh out. Shipley is a one-cut runner with tremendous burst, and the freshman figures to get starter's touches in the absence of starter Kobe Pace, who is unavailable and in COVID protocol.

If you’re playing the under here, both sides of the trenches help you arrive at that conclusion. First, the Clemson offensive line has been shaky, especially up the middle. Shipley does most of his damage on quick-hitting, interior zone runs. Florida State’s defensive line is stout up the middle and among the best Clemson will see this season (not named Georgia, of course).

If you like the over, it’s because of Shipley’s athleticism and the FSU linebackers being less than stellar. Also, if the Seminole game plan is similar to what happened in Chapel Hill, the over is a no-brainer. Not only did quarterback Sam Howell clear 100 rushing yards against the ‘Noles, both Tar Heel running backs Ty Chandler and D.J. Jones ran for 60 or more yards.

We like the latter logic here a bit more.

Verdict: Over

The take: Oh, college football. When will your statistician overlords correct your archaic sacks-reduce-rushing-yardage ways? While Sporting ‘Noles HQ is always leery of sack yardage undermining a quarterback running prop, how many dropbacks are the ‘Noles realistically trying to get out of Jordan Travis? 20? 15?

It is for this reason -- and because the fate of Saturday’s affair rests on the Seminole read-option and RPO game -- that we think Jordan Travis is going to get a ton of chances to break a big one. Travis has more than doubled the 32.5-yard prop in each of his last three games, eclipsing 100 yards on the ground against both Syracuse and North Carolina.

Though it may prove foolish and the Clemson front-seven too stout, this number feels off by about 15-20 yards. No-brainer play here as the ‘Noles will live and die on 13’s legs and ability to read the heck out of that option.

Verdict: Over

Why three rushing props this week? Given the Seminoles’ choice to run, run, and run some more against UMass, 150+ aerial yards from Jordan Travis is just not realistic to entertain for a prop bet. And given Clemson’s week-to-week issues with D.J. Uiagalelei, it’s hard to project how long he’ll be in the game, much less how productive he will be.

Thus, we play three runners and three overs. The lowest confidence play is probably Corbin.

Enjoying the props? Get involved!

Now it’s time to share some fun news with you all! The wildly popular Warchant TV show “Sunday Smash with Ira Schoffel and Jeff Cameron” has been sponsored in part by our friends at Prize Picks.

If you have been enjoying this feature and want to explore some plays yourself, our partners at Prize Picks are offering you a deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up. Just use code WARCHANT if you decide to take the plunge.

And remember, the ‘Sunday Smash” Halloween edition starts a little early this weekend at 6 p.m. Eastern. The Schoffel and Cameron kids need to get out there and score some candy!

Contact director of original content Tom Lang at Tom@warchant.com and follow him on twitter @_TomLang.

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