10/6/2023 football Edit

Staff predictions, keys for an FSU win over Virginia Tech

FSU seeks to get the ground game back on track coming off the bye against VT on Saturday. (USA Today Sports)

Patrick Burnham • TheOsceola

Football/Recruiting Analyst

No. 5 FSU will take on Virginia Tech at 3:30 pm on Saturday in Doak Campbell Stadium in what is the start of the three-game homestand for Florida State. The Seminoles are 24-point favorite over the Hokies who are coming off a win at home over Pitt last week.

The Osceola staff offers their keys to an FSU win over Virginia Tech on Saturday afternoon.

Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva

Contain Kyron: All indicators are that FSU should handle VT rather easily. The Hokies got a big win last week and it begs the question: Is Pitt that bad or has VT found something in QB Kyron Drones and his legs? I was skeptical when BC went with a QB who was supposed to be all run and no pass but when receivers tend to run wide open on play action, boots, shifts and motions you don't have to be Dan Marino to hit wide open dudes. So for me, the key is don't make Kyron Drones look like Lamar Jackson. Redirect receivers, eye discipline, communication on the back end of the defense. Make them one dimensional and let the DL eat vs. an OL that is suspect.

New Chapter on Offense: The book on FSU right now is load up the box to take away the run and make Jordan Travis beat you on low percentage jump balls. Clemson ultimately got burned and BC made it extremely difficult using this tactic. But that's the book, and until we are able to scheme a running game vs. a heavy box and make people pay for playing man to man it will be a struggle. We need great Jordan not just good Jordan moving forward.

Prediction: Florida State 50, Virginia Tech 17

Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz

Wrap up: Viriginia Tech''s offense isn't flashy, instead relying on two, bruising athletes in quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten whose yards add up after initial contact. Arm tackles won't get either of these two on the ground so FSU's defenders need to buckle up their chinstraps and wrap up these powerful runners. If not, Tech will move the chains on yards after carry.

Go be you: Some of FSU's inconsistencies this year could be attributed to the atmospheres in which they have played. The FSU v LSU game was the game of the week, with a massive national television audience. Boston College was the "Red Bandana Game." Clemson was a pressure cooker against a foe that had owned FSU for a decade.

After a month on the road, FSU is finally going to play a game in a friendly atmosphere, as a heavy favorite, so enjoy the moment and just go be you. This home stretch may be just what the doctor ordered to allow FSU to find its groove.

Prediction: 44, Virginia Tech 17

Osceola Managing Editor Bob Ferrante

Expand the offense: Florida State's offense can't simply revolve around Jordan Travis' right arm, the pass protection and passes to FSU's mismatch receivers and tight ends. Coming off a bye, with time for self-evaluation and players to get healthy, it's time to get the mojo back. Ja'Khi Douglas looks fast and there should be opportunities for him to play in the slot, even if it's a limited number of snaps. There should be an opportunity for the offensive line to reinforce what should be a strength of the Seminoles, and that's running the football. And, yes, that's Trey Benson, Caziah Holmes, Rodney Hill and Travis. For all of the coachspeak praise FSU's coaches spent on VT and their physicality on defense, the Hokies are 110th in the FBS against the run (177.6 yards per game). This feels like a game where FSU can and should run successfully.

Don't let a mobile QB get rolling: This could easily be about improvement on pass defense, and that's no doubt important. My concern with VT quarterback Kyron Drones is the capabilities of a big body picking up third-and-3 or coach Brent Pry thinking he should go for it more often on fourth-and-1 since he's the road underdog and needs to keep FSU's offense on the sideline. The best thing FSU's defense can do is contain Drones to the pocket (as often as possible) and make him be a passer in third-and-long situations.

Prediction: 34, Virginia Tech 17

Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham

Five For Fighting: This was supposed to be the best offensive line FSU has had in years. It hasn't been. Virginia Tech, at least statistically, has one of the worst run defenses in the country. At some point this season FSU will need to be able to run the ball to win a tight game. FSU needs to be able to run the ball against Virginia Tech because the Hokies do play good pass defense. FSU needs to be able to run the ball because they haven't run the ball well since facing a really bad Southern Miss defense. FSU needs to be able to run the ball consistently before someone figures out a way to slow down the passing game or they have a bad day in the passing game. FSU should be able to run the ball vs. Virginia Tech. FSU needs to identify its best five offensive lineman during the course of this game and let them carry the load the rest of the season outside of injury. FSU just needs to be able to run the ball.

Second(ary) and Third Chances: FSU's secondary and, really back seven, need to prove they can make a young, inexperienced, athletic and unproven passer at quarterback look like all of those things. That is typically not what we have become accustomed to over the last several seasons when the Seminoles face those type of signal callers. FSU will want to take the run away from Virginia Tech because that is what the Hokies want to do. They want to run the ball and shorten the game. They will also have to account for an additional gap in the run game because of Drones' ability to run the ball, therefore FSU will likely stack the box at times, thus leaving the secondary in some one-on-one situations. The Seminoles' corners and safeties need to step up in the game and hold up in those situations and allow Adam Fuller to try and take the run out of the Hokies offense, then you can sit back and play coverage with a big lead.

Prediction: Florida State 44, Virginia Tech 24

Osceola Senior Writer Curt Weiler

Don't turn on Drones: A huge part of VT's offense since Kyron Drones became its starting quarterback has been the run game. Just last week, Drones carried the ball 21 times and he has been credited with 15-plus carries in each of the last three games, with quite a few designed QB runs called for him. But Drones will be a different type of rushing quarterback than the few FSU has already faced this season. At 6-foot-2, 234 pounds, he has some power to go with his speed. Unfortunately for FSU, mobile quarterbacks have been one of the biggest issues this season. Improving in that facet and limiting what Drones can do with his legs will go a long way towards shutting down VT's offense.

Establish the run: I think everyone would admit they have been shocked at how much FSU has struggled to get its run game going through four games this season. The Seminoles enter the VT game averaging just 4.73 yards per carry and 147.8 rushing yards per game, both outside the top 45 nationally. Looking just at last week, VT did well against the run, holding Pitt to 38 rushing yards on 24 carries. However, it seems likely that the Hokies didn't believe Pitt QB Phil Jurkovec could beat them with his arm and elected to stack the box. Because in each of the Hokies' first four games, the opponent ran for over 175 yards. Before last week, VT was allowing over five yards per carry. The Hokies won't have the same luxury of being able to stack the box regularly against FSU and that should present a prime opportunity for the Seminoles to truly establish the run for the first time this season, both with the likes of Trey Benson/Lawrance Toafili/Rodney Hill and likely with Jordan Travis' legs as well.

Prediction: Florida State 41, Virginia Tech 17

Osceola Recruiting Analyst Charles Fishbein

Stop Virginia Tech Run Game: This would include slowing down or limiting quarterback Kryon Drones. He dominated the Pitt defense. He has the ability to beat you with both his arm and legs. He is going to be one of the better running quarterbacks FSU has faced. When FSU faced Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos they gave up a ton of big plays from his legs. Drones is not the same type of athlete as Castellanos but he can beat you with his legs. Last week against Pittsburgh he had 41 yards and rushed for two touchdowns. Virginia Tech has rushed for close to or over 200 yards. FSU's emphasis in this game is to slow down or stop the run game. If they are unable to do so it will open up the passing game.

Win the turnover battle: Virginia Tech is a program that has struggled of late to win games. Last week the Hokies played probably their best game under head coach Brent Pry. If they win the turnover battle against FSU, it would give them an opportunity to win the game. FSU does not want to give Virginia Tech short fields. If they can limit the turnovers, it will be tough for the Hokies to keep this game close.

Prediction: Florida State 41, Virginia Tech 17

Osceola Writer Nick Carlisle

Early Outs: Florida State has gotten off to some slow starts defensively in recent weeks and it has resulted in some uncomfortable moments down the stretch. The Seminoles' defense has come up with big plays when needed but even defensive coordinator Adam Fuller was candid in saying that he wants to see his defense play well when "their backs aren't close to the wall." Virginia Tech is coming in with an offense that is probably feeling pretty good about itself after having its most productive outing of the season with a backup quarterback that likely won't remain the backup long if he continues to play well. Mobile quarterbacks have continued to be an Achilles heel for this Florida State defense and Kyron Drones may be the next in line to have a good day. He accounts for the second most carries on a team that has run the ball 127 times in the last three weeks, with a lot of designed runs for Drones to boot. While playing at home for the first time in almost a month will definitely help things, FSU needs to set the tone early defensively and not let the Hokies hang. Fans want to see it shut down early. No funny business.

Find Green Grass: Arguably the most disappointing part of the Florida State offense thus far has been the lack of production in the run game. There is a genuine chance that every Osceola staff writer mentions it this week — apart from Curt who may elect for another talking point just for variety (we'll see). If there were a game to work out the kinks and build momentum in the run game, this would be it. The Virginia Tech defense is an experienced albeit struggling unit when it comes to run defense. It's strength is in the passing game, though covering Wilson and Coleman will be a challenge for any defense. Florida State is averaging 147 rushing yards per game — which is 81st best in the country. That's not great whatsoever considering how prolific the running game was last year, ranking 13th in rushing YPG. Yes, this team's identity seems to be geared towards enabling its playmakers in the passing game but that's also in part because this offense hasn't been able to run on anyone except for Southern Miss. It doesn't need to be a career day for anyone, there just needs to be enough of a push in the right direction to get things rolling and some explosive runs against the Hokies defense will do just fine.