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Published Nov 24, 2023
Staff predictions, keys to an FSU win over Florida
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Patrick Burnham  •  TheOsceola
Football/Recruiting Analyst
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@OsceolaPat

Fifth-ranked Florida State (11-0) heads to Gainesville on Saturday to take on the Gators (5-6) in both team's regular season finale. FSU is playing for its fifth undefeated season in program history. Of course, the outcome of this game will have huge implications on Florida State's chances to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, Florida needs a win to be bowl-eligible. And, both teams will be playing quarterbacks that will be making their first starts of the season.

There are plenty of storylines, as there always are in this game. The Osceola staff offers the keys for FSU to have a successful Sunshine Showdown and leave the Swamp 12-0. We also offer our score predictions and would like to see yours on the message boards..

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Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva

Gator Week. It's different from Miami. In my experience, most UM fans are on the fringe, fewer, and just different. Now I've never lived in South Florida so it may be different, but the point is, Gators are everywhere. I live in Nashville and amongst the Tennessee flags are my FSU fear the spear flag and TWO houses down there's a flag with a Gator head. They're at work, at the gym, at the beach, at the airport. They're around. And the stakes are high for the fanbases. Bragging rights: For Nole fans the playoff run continues in the face of keeping the Gators home for the holidays. For UF fans it's ruining FSU's perfect season and becoming bowl-eligible. For the players, most were recruited by both schools, or maybe by one and not the other. A lot of them have played and competed against each other since pee wee ball. There is familiarity with a majority of the rosters. And the situation as outlined above rests on their shoulders. That's a lot of pressure under normal circumstances. It's definitely a lot of pressure for two QBs making their first starts of the season in relief of two starters in the midst of really special seasons, be it statistically or vying for an invite to NYC. What that means is that there is a degree of unpredictability and unknowns about how this game will go.

Lines of Scrimmage: With Tate Rodemaker and Max Brown making their starting debuts the main key will be: Can either get comfortable or be harassed and harried into errors and/or neutralized? That means who can control the line of scrimmage. Can FSU's OL protect Tate, pick-up the blitz, and generate a running game on early downs to stay on schedule? Can FSU's DL take advantage of UF's OL injury situation and pressure Max and stifle UF's dynamic RB duo of Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne along with Max Brown's ability to run? Both will be a tall task for the 'Noles. FSU's OL need to elevate their level of play above what it's been. I can quote a bunch of stats about how bad UF's defense has been, but we all know that really doesn't matter. FSU's OL needs to produce in the running game and protect. Especially vs. the blitz since I don't believe UF can pressure with just four rushers. Defensively, it's money time for Jared Verse, Fabian Lovett, Braden Fiske, Joshua Farmer, Patrick Payton, and Kalen Deloach. UF wants to run early and often and then boot, play-action, RPO, and zone read their way down the field. Getting them to play the way we want them to play and not how they want to play is key.

Big Shots: Last year, UF generated points and yards on just a few plays. They hit on double moves to Ricky Pearsall and big runs by the RB's. Other than that, Anthony Richardson was relatively impotent. Billy Napier will have about 10 or so shock plays on his call sheet that will involve multiple shifts, motions, redirection, eye-candy and prestidigitation. FSU's defense needs to exhibit eye discipline and scheme discipline to make sure they don't let UF get any cheap ones. It's a tall task because the Gators have two legit WR's with Pearsall and freshman Tre Wilson. At the same time, I think Tate can hit on a few deep shots and Mike Norvell needs to take a few timely shots vs the blitz to discourage Gator DC Austin Armstrong from being too brave and take advantage of a secondary that has given up a few chunk plays. These plays are the quickest way to either generate points, flip the field, or conversely get a turnover and those, my friends, are game-changing plays.

Prediction: Florida State 31 Florida 24

Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham

Show Me Mo(o)re: This game isn't about Tate Rodemaker offensively for Florida State. In fact, if you went back and looked at last week's game against UNA, he would be one of the last people you would be concerned about on offense based off the individual performances vs. the Lions. The players around Tate need to play better than they did last week, especially FSU's Joe Moore Award Semifinalist offensive line group.

While Tate is a good athlete in his own right, very few players in the country are as elusive in the pocket as Jordan Travis and he has hidden some of the mistakes and shortcomings with the Seminoles offensive line all season. And the FSU offensive line should play better against one of the least disruptive defenses in all of college football. The Gators rank 100th in sacks made (19) and 113th in TFLs (51) this season. On top of that, the Gators struggle to get off blocks on the defensive line and have issues with gap integrity in run support from their linebackers and safeties. On paper, FSU has the advantage and with this game being in the Swamp, it will likely turn out to be a battle of who wants it more between FSU's OL and the Gators front six or seven.

I think it is as simple as that because I think schematically, and from a coaching standpoint, FSU has a significant advantage with Mike Norvell calling plays vs. Gators' defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong who has struggled in adjusting to some of the best play callers in college football this season. If FSU's offensive line plays like one of the 12-best in college football, the Seminoles will leave the Swamp 12-0.

Rattle and Hum: Florida quarterback Max Brown will be making his first career start against a defense that has played outstanding football over the last three-quarters of the season. One of the reasons for that is Seminoles defensive coordinator Adam Fuller has been very aggressive in bringing pressure vs. the run and the pass. With depth issues at quarterback for Florida, I don't see them running Brown that much. I think they will rely on Etienne and Johnson in the ground game as they have all year. Plus, what Florida has done the best this season is throw the ball and they do a good job of spreading the ball around. I think the key for the FSU defense to be successful is to get Brown off rhythm on passing downs. With Florida's issues on the offensive line, FSU might be able to get to Brown with four and not have to rely on pressure from the second and third levels of the defense. I look for FSU to keep humming vs. Florida offense by rattling their young quarterback with pressure early.

Prediction: FSU 33, Florida 18



Bob Ferrante Managing Editor

Tate and Ten: As we've seen the talent on the roster improve, we've seen quarterbacks grow and develop around the playmakers. There's no guarantee that purely having a Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson and Jaheim Bell will make Rodemaker successful on Saturday. But the easiest way to get behind or stall out drives is a takeaway or drops. Mike Norvell underscored multiple times in his postgame interview last Saturday that drops impacted the efficiency of the offense at times. Rodemaker doesn't need to be a playmaker as much as he needs to distribute the ball well, let those around him make plays and minimize mistakes.

Pressure Points: The Seminoles' pass rush is at its best when linebacker Kalen DeLoach (seven sacks) or safety Shyheim Brown bring the heat. Florida State is 15th in the FBS with 32 sacks, while Florida is 113th in the nation in allowing 33 sacks. Florida's offensive line injuries could make life more difficult for Max Brown, too. While he is far more elusive than Graham Mertz, it's the first career start for the redshirt freshman and the Seminoles will undoubtedly be applying pressure.

Prediction: Florida State 27, Florida 13

Osceola Senior Writer Curt Weiler

Deep in the Swamp: In terms of his whole game, Tate Rodemaker is certainly not the quarterback that Jordan Travis is. However, the case can be made that FSU's new QB may throw a better deep ball than its sidelined star. I think giving Rodemaker some comfortable throws to ease him into the game would be advisable. However, I also think a few early deep shots, potentially set up by play action, could be a big way to really jumpstart the FSU offense. I especially like this idea because the UF defense has been very susceptible to allowing big pass plays this season. The Gators' 20 passes of 40-plus yards allowed are the most in the country, four more than any other team.

Shut down the run: The identity of this Florida team all season has been its two-headed rushing attack with Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne. With a redshirt freshman quarterback in Max Brown making his first career start Saturday vs. FSU, that should be even more the case for this game. The Gators will surely want to rely on their rushing game which has amassed 20 rushing touchdowns this season and Brown's athleticism should add another facet that wasn't really a part of the offense with former starter Graham Mertz. FSU's defense needs to sell out to stop the run and make Brown beat the Seminoles with his arm. While he had a bit of success passing last week at Missouri, it may be harder this week considering FSU has had an entire week to prepare for him.

Prediction: Florida State 30, Florida 20

Osceola Recruiting Analyst Charles Fishbein

Flip the Script: The script with FSU is to get off to a slow start, make their halftime adjustments and pull away from their opponents in the fourth quarter. They don't have that luxury this weekend. Without Jordan Travis at the helm, FSU needs Tate and the offense to get off to a quick start. If they can jump on a Gator football team that comes in at 5-6, they may quit. UF is only playing for a meaningless bowl game at this point. Yes, they would like to beat their rival who is unbeaten and in a playoff race but at the same time, many of these players may want to get the season over with.

Take it on the Run: Florida is 123rd overall in rush average per attempts. They are not good at stopping the run. With a quarterback that has not taken a snap as a starter, and with guys like Trey Benson in the backfield, it may be smart to unleash these guys. If FSU can get over 200 yards rushing in this game, it won't be close in the 2nd half.

Prediction: FSU has way more on the line. They are also going to go out and try and win this for Travis. I expect a very motivated FSU football team. There are times in this series where one team is just better. It happened a couple of times for UF when Tim Tebow was the quarterback. FSU is better on offense, defense and special teams. Look for FSU to jump on the Gators and pull away in the 2nd half.

FSU 41, UF 17

Osceola Writer Nick Carlisle

Strike Fast: With a struggling Florida defense and an offense that will be a huge question mark coming into Saturday with Max Brown making his first collegiate start, the biggest challenge that Florida State will have to tackle will likely be the Swamp itself. How do you tackle this problem? Score quickly and take them out of the game early. This key is two fold as a successful first drive will greatly help Tate Rodemaker get settled into the game. Where he lacks in athleticism, he makes up for in arm strength and you can expect Rodemaker and Mike Norvell to push the ball down the field early against a suspect Gator defense.

Contain is the Name of the Game: From what little we have seen from Max Brown's film, it looks like Florida State will be going against yet another athletic, mobile quarterback that will be looking to use his legs more than his arm. This hints to me that the Gators will rely heavily on the read option game with Trevor Ettienne, Montrell Johnson Jr. and Brown. While the Florida State defense has improved over the course of the season against these quarterbacks (and they have seen a lot of them) a reoccurring area of weakness has been on the edge in run defense as the Seminoles have been prone to losing contain and running too far up-field when presenting a light box. Shutting down the running game will be of the upmost importance for Adam Fuller's defense on Saturday.

Prediction: Florida State 24, Florida 17

Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz

A time to respond: There are always ebbs and flows in ball games, but is it me or do swings of fortune seem to be amplified in Ben Hill Giggin’ Stadium?

Mike Norvell will remember FSU’s last trip to Gainesville when the Seminoles were very much in the game at halftime, tied at 7. Even with 5:42 in the third quarter, and trailing 10-7, FSU was in it when Adam Fuller’s unit forced UF to punt from its own 10-yard line. Jeremy Crawshaw ripped a punt 61 yards over the head of Ontario Wilson who unwisely tried to field it over his shoulder. The muff was recovered by Florida at the FSU 33 and lit the fuse in Benny Hill Stadium, a bad play that would turn into a disaster because back then, the Seminoles could not muster a response fast enough.

The Gators converted the fumble into a touchdown to take a commanding 17-7 lead in what had been a defensive tussle. Still fueled by fortune, UF intercepted Jordan Travis two plays later, which set up another touchdown and a 24-7 lead with under 9:46 remaining.

Tate Rodemaker was 1 for 2 in that game for 7 yards and together with Ja’khi Douglass will be one of just two skill players who marked the box score in the 2021 game, which I found surprising.

A time not to respond: Even without Travis, the Seminoles should come to the Swamp with a more mature mindset than the 2021 team who could not refrain from inappropriate response to a pregame skirmish that set the tone for a chippy game, including 22 penalties for 197 yards and six turnovers between the two teams. Just as FSU must respond quicker to adversity, they must also manage their response to the tauntings of the gator crowd and players.

Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is one of the three most challenging stadiums for a visiting team because the stands are closer to the playing surface and the people sitting in those stands are among the most obnoxious. The Seminoles have shown a propensity to play well in difficult stadiums including Clemson’s Death Valley, where FSU is the only team to beat the Tigers this year. While the Seminoles did not play at LSU this year, the Seminoles did beat the Bengal Tigers convincingly in Orlando this year and beat them in New Orleans in 2022.

Prediction: Florida State 27, Florida 17

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