Fourth-ranked Florida State (12-0) heads to Charlotte on Saturday to take on Louisville (10-2) in the ACC championship game (8 p.m. on ESPN). Not only are the Seminoles playing for an ACC title, but they are also playing to further their case to be one of the four teams selected on Sunday for the College Football Playoff.
Here are the Osceola's staff predictions for the game and our keys to a Florida State win over the Cardinals.
Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva
What a time to be alive! 12-0, state champs, playoffs, transfer portal, recruiting, holidays, coaching carousel ... inject it all in my veins. Nothing is better than being on a championship run going into December. As a fan I can wallow in all of it. But FSU football players, coaches, and staff have a big job in front of them. Focusing on the Cards of Louisville is a must for them. I don't think Mike Norvell will let his team waver from the steely-eyed focus they have maintained throughout this process of this 2023 season. This is the destination of all the WORK and time to cash in. That being said here are my keys to bring home the 2023 ACC 'SHIP.
Stay Grounded: Who can establish a running game and who can stop it? Louisville's defense reminds me of Miami, overwhelm with numbers for the run and pressure with lots of movement. It's no secret that a QB's best friend is an impactful running game, and nothing would help Tate Rodemaker more than keeping in front of the chains and dictating the pace of play. Also, I think there will be opportunities in the RPO/Zone Read series that Tate seems to execute pretty well. FSU's OL needs to dominate a small but quick UL defensive line as Mike Norvell and Alex Atkins scheme ways to out-leverage and utilize personnel groups to get an advantage in the running game. Conversely, Louisville's offense really relies on establishing the run to build out its play-action passing game. Jeff Brohm is very capable of scheming an effective game plan but if FSU's defense can stuff the run, it should be reminiscent of the Mike Tyson quote: "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face." FSU's defense needs to punch Louisville in the face.
Gut it Out: To quote our favorite Dabo, FSU just needs "to bring their own guts." This time of year is all about getting a result. Win and we're in. One thing that I have the ultimate confidence in with this group is that they will leave it all on the field, that no matter how it goes early they will find a way to pull it out. I think this game will be very close. This is the first game in a while that FSU will face a starting, veteran QB since LSU. The weather looks to be a factor. Fighting injuries to key people. The conditions are less than ideal for FSU. FSU just needs to find a way to finish and find a way, whatever it takes. I can't wait to see how that "will to win" manifests itself, because I'm sure it will, and FSU gets it done. Fitzy with a last second FG to win.
Prediction: Florida State 31 Louisville 28
Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz
Determination and Perseverance: Both have been keys for Florida State this year and will be in the ACC Championship Game between 12-0 Florida State and 10-2 Louisville. This matchup, at least on paper, is as close as you might suspect between a 12-win FSU team and a 10-win UL team. The Cardinals are ranked higher in more offensive categories, while the Seminoles have the edge on defense and the most important aspects of the kicking game. The buttercups among us need to buckle up, as this one is likely to be decided by fourth-quarter grit, which has become the identity of this Mike Norvell team.
Defense Travels: In the preseason we thought the FSU offense would have to carry the defense until Adam Fuller’s unit could find stability at linebacker and safety. After the first month — which included LSU and Clemson and without senior safety Akeem Dent in several games — the Seminoles were ranked No. 49 in the Stop Rate ranking, stopping 68.1 percent of opponents drives and giving up 1.79 points per drive. Since then, the defense has climbed all the way up to No. 6 in stop percentage, with the points per drive falling to 1.3 on the season. The Seminoles have had solid footing with their defense and kicking game in the back half of the season, which were keys to victory against Miami and Florida and will be a key in the upcoming game against Louisville.
Tempting Tate: Louisville’s defensive front is light compared to the fronts FSU has faced this year, so expect Louisville to play a 4-3 defense in an effort to stop FSU’s run, and tempt Tate Rodemaker to take one-on-one shots downfield, where the Cards have been vulnerable.
Prediction: FSU 27 Louisville 17
Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham
Slippery When Wet: Based on the current weather forecast it looks like it will rain most of the day in Charlotte and the chances of rain are above 80 percent at kickoff. So, very few things can impact the outcome of game like turnovers and almost nothing impacts turnovers like weather. The balls will be slick for sure if the forecast is accurate. So, I am anticipating that we will see the football on the ground a couple of times on Saturday night. And simply put, whichever does a better job of holding onto the ball, or taking it away, will have a significant advantage in this game.
Front Lines: Sure, FSU and Louisville will probably need to take some deep shots in the passing game to keep each other's defense honest and force them to play coverage from time-to-time and not allow the other to stack the box on every play. But I do think this game will be decided up front. If FSU's defensive line can limit Louisville's success on the ground and the Seminoles offensive line can find enough success in the running game to give its offense some balance, I like their chances of coming home with an ACC Championship. There will be opportunities for big plays in the passing game for the FSU offense, so the big question: Can they run ball enough to help the passing game out.
Prediction: Florida State 25, Louisville 23
Managing Editor Bob Ferrante
Ground Control: This wasn't what we expected going into the year, but FSU is 67th in the FBS (just about average) in rush offense at 156.2 yards per game. There's some good and bad here as offensive line injuries have impacted the numbers, as have simply facing some quality defensive fronts. Jordan Travis' injury also means defenses are likely to load up the box with defenders. On the bright side, Trey Benson has been hammering away on the ground and hasn't been flustered by the short gains that FSU has realized the majority of the time while enjoying some chunk plays. Of his 95 yards at Florida, 94 came after contact. Now another real test as Louisville is 12th in the nation against the run, allowing just 3.29 yards per carry. It's up to Benson, Lawrance Toafili, Rodney Hill and Caziah Holmes to make the most of what slender rushing lanes they get against the Cardinals and keep the Seminoles in a good down-and-distance so that Tate Rodemaker or Brock Glenn aren't stuck with the weight on his shoulders in third-and-long (or fourth-and-short) situations.
Depth Advantage: About those slow starts, well, maybe that's just the unfortunate reality of how this team plays. Nobody wants to rally from a double-digit deficit, but that's been the case the last few weeks. And we've seen sluggish starts against the likes of Pittsburgh and Duke. What's in FSU's favor is depth, an advantage at many position groups compared to Louisville. And that very well could - yet again - be a difference when FSU needs to run the ball in the fourth quarter and stop the run in the final few drives. Expect nothing less than a close game late.
Prediction: Florida State 23, Louisville 20
Osceola Senior Writer Curt Weiler
Air Tate (or Brock): The entire Osceola staff has talked about how impressive Tate Rodemaker's arm talent is since he's taken over the starting job. He didn't get too many chances to display that last week at UF due to a few understandable circumstances (field position struggles, extremely hostile atmosphere). This week provides another chance against a Louisville defense that has also had a bit of a problem allowing explosive plays. While the Cardinals rank 40th nationally in yards per play allowed this season (5.26), each of their last three opponents have averaged over 6.1 yards per play. Miami averaged nearly 7.5 yards per play two weeks ago against the Cards. Louisville has allowed 46 passes of 20-plus yards this season (121st out of 133 FBS teams) and 13 passes of 40-plus yards (118th nationally), doing so against no teams with as prolific as a passing attack as FSU's this season. With another week of experience under their belts, Rodemaker or Glenn may be able to air it out more successfully under the lights this week.
Early Arrival: This FSU team has showcased some resilience throughout the 2023 season. It has rallied from double-digit deficits four separate times to win games and outscored its first 12 opponents by a combined margin of 248 to 72 in the second half of its games. The other side of that, though, is that FSU hasn't always gotten off to the best starts of late. The Seminoles held a halftime lead in just two of their last five games against FBS competition. With plenty of pressure on FSU Saturday night in the form of a win-and-in-the-College-Football-Playoff game against Louisville, a fast start would certainly alleviate some of the stress from a team which hasn't scored more than 10 first-half points in any of its last three games against FBS teams.
Prediction: Florida State 30, Louisville 27
Recruiting analyst Charles Fishbein
Brock For Heisman: May as well get him started. Brock has been a fan favorite. The word coming from practices this spring and fall is Brock is the real deal. If he is going to get his first start against Louisville, Brock just needs to rely on the talent around him. Keon Coleman, Jaheim Bell and Johnny Wilson have major advantages against a Lousiville secondary that does not have much size. If Brock can get them the ball it could be a long days for the Cards.
Run Benson Run: FSU has one of the best backs in the country with Trey Benson. He had an impressive performance against Florida. For FSU to win, Benson will need to have a big game again.
Defense needs to play big: FSU has had one of the best defenses in the country. Lousville will give them some problems but we expect the defense to hold strong. There may not be a better defense in the county during the second haves.
Prediction: Coaches might have to go with their third-string quarterback in Glenn. As long as he does not turn the ball over, FSU should have success. Louisville has not played a team as good as FSU. I feel FSU will rally around who ever steps in at quarterback.
Prediction: Florida State 34, Louisville 17
Osceola Writer Nick Carlisle
Playmakers need to make plays: No matter what quarterback it is under center on Saturday, with how good the Louisville run defense is, Florida State's passing game will have to have a good day against a pass defense that is prone to giving up big plays in the passing game. With how aggressive Louisville's defense can be, that means that Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson will get 1-on-1 opportunities with only a single high safety covering the middle of the field. Florida State was unable to take advantage of these man-coverage opportunities against Florida, but they will need to do so against the Cards if they are not able to run the ball effectively, especially in the rain. The message has been that this team is more than the quarterback, and while Benson showed this last week, it's the receivers turn this week.
Finish strong: Well, you heard it last week from Braden Fiske — this is a second-half team. As facetious as the statement is, it's more or less true as Florida State has controlled large portions of the second half in multiple games. While a strong start would be nice, it's a strong finish that will be necessary if the Seminoles are going to win the ACC Championship. It's almost a foregone conclusion that this team will face adversity in the first half and as long as they don't stray away from the disciplined, mature brand of football that they have been playing all season, the results will be positive. It almost seems disingenuous to say 'make it to the second half', so I will say don't get too far behind the sticks. It will need to be a locked-in, full team effort.
Prediction: FSU 24 Louisville 21
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