FSU and Miami renew one of college football greatest rivalries on Saturday. And like we have become accustomed to over the history of the series this game will have an impact on the bigger college football picture as it pertains to where FSU is ranked by the College Football Playoff Committee next Tuesday.
A win over the Hurricanes will keep the Seminoles in the thick of the battle to be named one of the top-four teams in the country at seasons end. A loss, depending on what else transpires across the country this weekend, could prove costly to those chances.
The Osceola staff offers their keys to an FSU win over Miami, and we also give our score predictions.
Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva
After the win vs. Clemson in September, my eyes immediately turned to THIS DAY. Sure, we had some challenges and had some really good teams on the schedule since. But when you start the season, you circle certain games and UM is the first game you circle. So once the Clemson hurdle was cleared and FSU came out of September 4-0, all we hoped this season could be, would become possible if FSU simply took care of business and we could get to this day. The reason we love this sport, and this team would coalesce into this day. And here we are. I am not one to wish my life away and I do enjoy the journey but in the back of your mind you know that UM is coming to Doak. And I can't help but think that Mike Norvell had a similar thought. The way he and the staff have managed this team in regard to "load management" simultaneously building depth and keeping position groups relatively healthy and game plans that are just enough, seem to indicate that they are building to peak at the right time. UM is the first team since Clemson that can match FSU athletically. They are comparable at every position (except QB) and honestly probably better in a few. But they don't seem to have the depth nor the experience that FSU has, and the last few weeks for them have challenged that depth with overtime games and games that go deep in the fourth quarter. With that in mind, here are my top-two keys:
The Jordan Rules: The stakes are high for both programs. FSU is in position for a playoff spot and Miami is trying to demonstrate proof of concept for Mario Cristobal's vision for the Miami program. A loss for either pops that figurative balloon. As a result, emotions will run high early and that can be emotionally draining and when the adrenaline coursing through your body early begins to wane fatigue sets in later in the game. I fully expect to get the best version of Miami early. And that means when FSU has the ball, they will bring the heat. Miami defensive coordinator Lance Guidry is very aggressive, and they will try to get to Jordan Travis early and often and get some hits on him to affect him or even get him out of the game. I think that FSU should really protect him early with quick throws, screens, running game and max protection. Don't play scared, but the goal is to frustrate the Miami defense and don't let them get to the FSU QB early. Even if the result is not necessarily ideal offensively. Because once that adrenaline and emotion wears off and the wear and tear on that personnel starts to manifest, that's the ideal time to unleash Jordan. Don't run him early, protect him early. Later in the game, let him take over and do what Jordan does and they could be in a world of hurt.
Miami Vice: It's no secret what UM wants to do when they have the ball. They want to grind you into the ground. The UM OL is pretty good, and the interior is excellent with the transfers of Lee (UCF) and Cohen (Alabama). So it's strength against strength vs. the size and depth of FSU's DL. Add to that the struggles and lack of confidence for them at the QB position (regardless of who plays) and it's imperative for them to stay on schedule. I think that mucking up the box on early downs with run blitzes and plus-one looks in the box to try and get them in third-and-long and then play coverage is a sound strategy. Although it is tempting that if TVD is playing QB he is such a statue that dialing up pressure on third down could surely generate some big plays. Even if it's rushing five and playing cover-one or just seeing how freshman right tackle Francis Mauigoa handles Patrick Payton and Jared Verse. It's all about the timing of the call but the key is to get them behind the chains.
Prediction: Just Win, Baby....Florida State 34, Miami 20
Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz
With Eyes Wide Open: You can keep a rattlesnake as a pet. You can even hand feed it. But never, ever, forget it is a rattlesnake. Head coach Mike Norvell described Miami as very talented and, if you are a star gazer, Miami has a "more talented" roster. According to the Rivals rankings, the Hurricanes have 22 four- and five-star players among the 45 players with the most playing time. The Seminoles have half as many (11) in their 45-man count. But as we know, recruiting signing classes don't translate into wins without good individual player development and team play, which has been Florida State's greatest strength during their 16-game winning streak.
Balance is Best: Since 1969, the team that has run the ball the best has won this game 38 of 55 times and the run is a relative Miami strength thus far this year, both defensively (8th-ranked rushing defense vs FSU 58th) and offensively (39th vs FSU 56th). Miami's defense is also ranked fourth in stopping fourth-down conversions and 9th in tackles for loss, indicative of their run stopping abilities. FSU's strength is its diversity. If not by land, then FSU will go by air, where the Canes aren't as dominant, ranked 28th in team passing efficiency defense, 54th (222 ypg) against the pass and 83rd in passing yards per completion. Miami has some uncertainty at quarterback coming into this game and ranked 43rd in team passing efficiency, compared to FSU's No. 4 pass efficiency defense. The key will be pass protection, where Miami's defense averages 3.33 sacks per game, No. 8 nationally and the Seminoles have allowed just 1.22 per game, 18th nationally. Give Travis clean looks, and FSU beats Miami with a balanced offense.
Prediction: Florida State 31, Miami 17
Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham
Sweet Emotion: We hear former players from both sides of this rivalry talk about the fact that there is a different level of intensity in this game vs. the other games on their schedule. And there is no reason to think that this year's game will be any different. FSU's college football playoff hopes will be impacted by the result of this game and Miami would like nothing better than to spoil the Seminoles' perfect season. Both teams, players and coaches, will come out of the locker room full of adrenaline but they will need to channel that energy and play with controlled emotion. Maturity and discipline are both crucial in games of this magnitude and the team that handles the pressure, and the emotions of this game, will have a huge advantage. You can't let your emotions lead to penalties or playing outside your responsibilities by taking chances because a player feels like he needs to make something happen. Trust your preparation and game plan. One advantage for FSU will be that it will get to feed off the emotion of a home crowd. The longest-lasting emotions from this game will come from what is on the scoreboard when the clock hits all zeros. FSU has a veteran team, if it plays like one on Saturday afternoon it will enjoy the sweetest of emotions on Saturday night.
Ground Jordan: The strength of the Miami defense is its ability to stop the run. Yes, FSU will need to the throw the ball downfield and they will, especially if Coleman and/or Wilson are back and can stretch the Hurricanes' defense vertically. However, FSU will need to find some margin of success on the ground if it wants to win this ballgame. I think we are likely to see more of Jordan Travis is the run game than we have all season. Norvell used Travis more on the ground vs. Duke than we had seen all year. Using Travis more in the run game will challenge Miami mentally and physically. It can keep the defense off balance, having to account for an additional gap, and open up even more opportunities for big plays in the passing game off play action or RPO-action. Thankfully, FSU hasn't had to rely on Travis' legs to much in the run game this season. There is a lot on the line Saturday afternoon, and it might be time to let everyone see and feel the full Jordan Travis experience and turn him loose on the Hurricanes defense.
Prediction: Florida State 27, Miami 25
Osceola Senior Writer Curt Weiler
To Air is Human: The strength of this Miami defense is up front. The Hurricanes' 30 sacks rank 11th nationally and their 68 tackles for loss rank 13th nationally entering this weekend's game. When the pass rush doesn't get home, though, this Miami defense has been susceptible to chunk pass plays. UM has allowed 19 pass plays of 30-plus yards this season, tied for 118th out of 133 FBS teams and better than only Wake Forest among ACC teams. Should FSU get Keon Coleman and/or Johnny Wilson back, the FSU pass game could really be due for a productive game. Even if one or both of them don't play, there's still a decent chance this is another game where Jordan Travis racks up the yards.
Take the Long Way Home: Miami's offense has not scored points at an especially high rate of late after a strong start to the season. The Hurricanes have scored 30 points just once in their last five games and are coming off a game where NC State held them without a touchdown. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke hasn't looked especially healthy and may not even start after throwing 10 interceptions in his last four games. Whoever leads the offense, it's hard to imagine Miami will be able to put together extended long-distance drives very consistently against FSU's defense which has been playing at a high level. As such, it's key for FSU to not help the Hurricanes' cause. Turnovers, penalties and other blunders that give Miami short fields or even gift them defensive/special teams points feel like one of the easiest ways to let the Hurricanes hang around despite the overall talent disadvantage they possess entering this game.
Prediction: FSU 31, Miami 13
Osceola Editor Bob Ferrante
Win the intangibles: There's always noise around a rivalry game, but this one is driving the pregame decibel meter all the way up. Will Tyler Van Dyke start? Yes, safe bet. Will Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman play? Yes, safe bet. Why haven't Miami's win-loss results — in a word: inconsistent — reflected the accumulated talent? Hmmm, is it coaching, player development or focus? (Not sure.) Will FSU continue on its track as one of the CFP's top four? There are always juicy storylines for FSU-Miami. Even though the Hurricanes are unranked and Vegas oddsmakers have FSU as a 14-point favorite, what Miami is capable of on its best day is what's most concerning. Is this the team that beat Texas A&M in September and Clemson in October sans TVD? Or is it the team that lost to Georgia Tech, UNC and NC State. As others have mentioned, the Seminoles must bring the energy but make it focused aggression and withstand the emotional waves throughout the game.
Travis' consistency is a difference maker: This isn't about 300-yard games or a Heisman discussion. It's about consistently making the right decisions, connecting with receivers (and tight ends and tailbacks) and commanding the offense. It's about building drives and putting points on the board. Who does that with consistency, not necessarily every quarter but every game? It's Travis and the FSU offense, regardless of what personnel is available. While you fear Van Dyke on his best day, we've seen Travis' worst days — and they're still pretty good. His best days, with Wilson and/or Coleman are fun to watch.
Prediction: FSU 27, Miami 17
Osceola Recruiting Analyst Charles Fishbein
Win the line of scrimmage: Miami will come into this game with one of the best offensive and defensive lines that FSU will have played against this year. Miami is big, strong and physical on both sides of the football. The Hurricanes are looking to take this game into the fourth quarter where they are within one score. They have used that mentality against Clemson and Virginia and won both games in overtime. They like to run the ball and with Mark Fletcher having his breakout performance last week you can expect much of the same in this game. Miami also relies on a defensive line that can get up the field and get pressure on the quarterback. Defensive end Rueben Bain will be a matchup nightmare to whoever FSU puts on his side. So winning the line of scrimmage will be huge in this game.
Fast and Furious: FSU for some reason has not had fast starts. This Miami team wants the game to be close at halftime. They feel they can wear you out. Miami does not have the ability to come from behind. If FSU can get an early lead, this game could get out of hand. Come out fast, limit the mistakes and win the turnover battle. If FSU comes out slow like they did against Pitt, they could end up losing the game.
Many Seminoles fans feel this game will have the same results as last year. This is a much different Miami team. They have a very good defense, led by Bain. They have athletes all over the field. They can put pressure on the quarterback. They also have one of the top defensive coordinators in the country. Expect Miami to bring a ton of pressure from all areas. I feel FSU is the better team and will win but expect a dog fight in this one.
Prediction: FSU 23, Miami 17
Osceola Writer Nick Carlisle
Trench Game: While the defensive schemes are different, Pitt showed last week what an aggressive and proactive defense can do against Florida State's offensive line, which at this point in the season we all need to admit is not as much of a strength as we thought. The Seminoles' offensive line has been good in pass blocking but has just not been able to be consistent in run blocking and that's something you have got to have in games like this. This is the best defensive front that FSU has played since Clemson and the offensive line will need to be on it or else it could turn into a dogfight. Rueben Bain is well on his way to an ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year award and will be a tough test. It will be a physical game, it always is, and FSU's offensive line needs to set the tone early.
A Not So Perfect Ten: Ten interceptions in the last four games. That says it all. You have to imagine that even despite the dreadful play, it will be Van Dyke starting for Miami. I'm firmly in the camp that it's an above-the-pads issue for Van Dyke. That means this game has the chance to turn into a back-and-forth slugfest if he plays well. This Miami offense has a lot of playmakers. It's just the person delivering the ball has been playing with a plummeted confidence. Strip sack, an interception, whatever you need to do to get the Florida State offense an extra possession and rattle Van Dyke's cage will go a long way. You either get him out of the game early and put a young QB in with a truly hostile environment, or Van Dyke stays in and you have the opportunity for turnovers. Both benefit FSU.
Prediction: FSU 35, Miami 21
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