10/27/2023 football Edit

Staff predictions, keys to an FSU win over Wake Forest

A big day from FSU's passing game (and Keon Coleman) will ensure a win at Wake. (Mike Olivella)

Patrick Burnham • TheOsceola

Football/Recruiting Analyst

The Osceola staff offers their keys to an FSU win over Wake Forest on Saturday afternoon.

Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva

If there is any concern about a letdown for FSU after a top-20, nationally televised homecoming win last week, all Mike Norvell has to do is turn on the film from their game vs. Wake over the last three years. FSU enters the matchup with Wake Forest on a three-game losing streak vs. the Demon Deacons and Wake coach Dave Clawson feels this is the best defense he's fielded in seven years. The FSU fan base is ready for some retribution but recent history shows that Wake is always going to be a tough out. They are well coached and have a lot of pride.

Fabulous Front Five: The strength of this Wake Forest team lies in the defense. A solid group with an active front seven that stems pre-snap, slants & stunts post snap, has multiple looks and brings pressure. The fortunes of the offense rest solely on the massive shoulders of FSU's offensive line. Their ability to sort out the pre- and post-snap movement and create seams in the running game and at the same time protect Jordan Travis is the biggest key for me. Also, a lot of movement can often times get offensive lineman in compromising positions and that can result in holding calls getting the offense behind the chains. I'm looking forward to the FSU offensive line having their best game to date. They're going to need it.

Exorcise the Demons: What appears to be a decided advantage for FSU is the fact that Wake is down to Santino Marucci at quarterback if Mitch Griffis cannot play. Marucci was 12 of 21 for 151 yards last week in the win vs. Pitt but through the first three quarters was 5 of 12 for 34 yards. Whether Griffis plays or Marucci plays, in order for Wake to be productive and generate any offense they have to get the running game going. Against a traditionally stout Pitt defense, RB Demond Claiborne averaged almost 7 yards per carry and had two touchdowns, while Justice Ellison had 20 carries for 60 yards. Wake's OL had its best week vs. Pittsburgh and feel like they may have turned a corner. FSU got pushed around a little bit vs Duke, especially the last drive of the first half and early third quarter Duke was able to generate offense through the run, but FSU's red-zone defense was outstanding forcing two field-goal attempts and a turnover on downs. I think that Wake thinks it can run on FSU and will bank on home-field advantage to cash in when they hit the red zone. If FSU can change the narrative on the run defense this is the week to do it. I don't see Wake passing the ball very effectively. If FSU can stifle the run, get some three-and-outs, and buy extra possessions for the offense, this can be over early.

Prediction: Florida State 48, Wake Forest 3

Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz

When you look at the film and look at the statistics searching for something to hang your Demon Decon hat on, there are two stats where Wake has a decided advantage heading into this game. One is a three-game winning streak in the series and the other is the Deacons don't sin much, averaging just 2.87 penalties per game. Outside of those two stats, FSU has performed at a higher level in most every categories.

Don't sleep on Wake: After an emotional three-game homestand enjoyed by a blood-thirsty home crowd, the Seminoles cannot allow themselves to fall asleep on Snuggie Hill. It would be easy to do with a defense that is ranked 84th against the pass (238.6 ypg) but I don't see FSU hitting the snooze button as FSU's veteran starters have felt the pain in this unassuming arena. Jordan Travis, Maurice Smith, Robert Scott and Darius Washington are the leaders and the keys to this game.

Don't sleep Part II: FSU's defense has struggled against Dave Clawson's unorthodox offense over the years but the 'Noles have the experience advantage in 2023. Slow-mesh maestro Sam Hartman has moved to South Bend and whoever the Deacs start at QB won't be Harman. Like the offense, FSU's defense is loaded with veteran leaders including Kalen DeLoach, Akeem Dent, DJ Lundy, Fabien Lovett, Renardo Green et al, who will need to do what they do best, fight and not quit.

Prediction: Florida State 41, Wake 17

Osceola Managing Editor Bob Ferrante

No Mess Madness: Most defensive players would prefer not to face Wake's offense. It's tough for a scout-team quarterback to replicate. It requires more patience and penalizes too much aggression. But this also isn't the Wake slow-mesh offense of the Sam Hartman days. FSU linebacker Tatum Bethune said the Wake game was one of his worst last year, and it's worth reminding the Demon Deacons were 10 of 18 on third-down conversions and 3 of 3 on fourth-down conversions. The bottom line is regardless of the quarterback, Mitch Griffis or Santino Marucci, FSU must put Wake in third-and-unmanageable or else the Deacons will be fueled with optimism for an upset.

To Air is Human: FSU also had just 10 possessions vs. Wake in 2022. There's the new clock rules, which will cut a few plays from the game for each team, and the need to make third-down stops on defense. But there's also a need for FSU's offense to make the most of what could be fewer possessions than normal. Despite having some very good safeties — FSU offensive coordinator Alex Atkins praised Malik Mustapha as one of the best he's seen on film — Wake's pass defense is 86th in the FBS (238.6 yards). While I'm usually one who wants to dictate the tone with the ground attack, the game plan should be to emphasize the passing game (receivers, tight ends, short passes to tailbacks) and push the safeties back to defend the pass, which should open up the run. It's also worth mentioning Wake has allowed a season-high 30 points just twice this year, so points may not be as easy to come by despite the Demon Deacons' deficiencies.

Prediction: FSU 31, Wake Forest 17

Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham

Getting Fiske(e): Wake Forest wants to run the ball and they want to run the ball inside. So far this season, 41 percent of the Demon Deacons' runs have hit either the A-gap or B-Gap and out of those inside runs 70-percent have been to the left side of the ball. FSU needs Braden Fiske, Josh Farmer, Malcolm Ray and Fabien Lovett clog the middle of the line of scrimmage and spill these runs to the outside where Jared Verse, Patrick Payton and FSU's linebackers and safeties will be waiting on the Deacs' running backs.

Coleman and The Coolers: If you want to take the fire out of a potential Wake upset, get the ball to Keon Coleman early and often. The Demon Deacons' defense is one of the worst in college football at surrendering long pass plays. They have given up 21 pass plays of 20 yards or more, 16 pass plays of 30 yards or more and seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, which ranks 47th, 120th and 94th, respectively. Between Keon Coleman, Jaheim Bell, Kyle Morlock, Darion Williamson, Deuce Spann, Johnny Wilson and the rest of the FSU receivers should be able to get their offense heated up by taking the top off the Wake defense. And nothing would put out the fire of the Wake Forest defense and chances of a demonic upset on the road than the chilling reminder that Coleman and The Coolers can catch balls consistently deep downfield.

Prediction: Florida State 51, Wake Forest 20

Osceola Senior Writer Curt Weiler

Making the Mesh Messy: Of late, Wake Forest's slow-mesh offense can be a headache to prepare for because of its uniqueness and how competently run it has been the last few years by Sam Hartman. However, Hartman is now at Notre Dame, standout wide receiver A.T. Perry is in the NFL and the Demon Deacons' offense has struggled abundantly this season. That's the case on a few fronts, but especially at preventing tackles for loss. Wake enters Saturday's game tied with Arkansas for the most tackles for loss allowed this season at 61. However, the Deacs have actually played one less game than the Razorbacks. Wake's 8.71 tackles for loss allowed per game this season are the most nationally. That could lead to a productive day for FSU's defensive line if it is properly able to defend Wake's offensive attack.

Wake up ready: I realize I've had keys similar to this on a few occasions this season but it's a common key for a team ranked in the top five like FSU has been since Week 2. The Seminoles are a sizable 20- to 20.5-point favorite depending on what sportsbook you look at. Saturday afternoon's game is not expected to be close. FSU has a big talent advantage; Wake has allowed both Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh to throw for more than 300 yards the last two weeks and the Deacs may be turning to their third-string quarterback for the second straight week. The worst thing FSU can do is keep this game close and give the Demon Deacons hope, like they did at Boston College back in September. Make a statement early, stomp out the hopeful road crowd's energy and keep the unbeaten season alive.

Prediction: FSU 38, Wake Forest 10

Osceola Recruiting Analyst Charles Fishbein

Don’t let Deacs stick around: Wake wants to make this an ugly game. Last week against Pitt they were controlled throughout the game. Wake stuck around, made enough plays and found a way to win. Fsu needs to jump on wake early and often. If FSU can control the game from the start they should be able to pull away in the second half.

Run the ball: Wake is not big on defense and they lack great depth. If the Seminoles have success running the ball they will wear Wake down. It will also open up FSU's pass game. We don’t feel Wake has the talent on the back end up to match up against FSU's receivers and tight ends.

Prediction: FSU looks at this as a revenge game. The Seminoles got beat by Wake last year and FSU wants to turn the tables. We feel that FSU will be too much for wake on offense, defense and special teams.

Prediction: FSU 42, Wake Forest 17

Osceola Writer Nick Carlisle

No sleepwalking allowed: This is going to be an early game against a team that Florida State should truthfully blow out of the water. Not because Wake hasn't looked formidable at times this season but because the Demon Deacons are having health problems at quarterback and, if last week's game against Duke proved anything, injuries at quarterback loom large. This time for Florida State, one of the two potential quarterbacks they will be facing is not a star quarterback named Riley Leonard and with a few stops, this game should be over by halftime. It'll prove to be a sleepy afternoon on Snuggie Hill and, as long as the Seminoles don't sleepwalk in Winston-Salem, everything should go as planned. Hopefully for FSU, lessons from Boston College were learned and are of present mind.

Wake up early: The story has been about how second-half adjustments defensively has allowed Florida State to either stay in or run away with ball games. I would like to see FSU get off to a strong start defensively early in Winston-Salem and put the second half adjustments on hold for a week. Force an early turnover, avoid long drives and get off the field on third down. Florida State will likely see a lot of the run game once again, so seeing improvements in run contain and effective blitzing from the secondary will be key in making sure Florida State can get out of the gates on the road.