Florida State (0-3) takes on the Cal Bears (3-0) on Saturday at 7 p.m. (ESPN2) in Doak Campbell Stadium. The Seminoles are still looking for their first win of the season. Cal is looking win its first ACC game.
As we do each week, the Osceola staff offers their thoughts on what will be the keys to a Florida State win on Saturday.
Bob Ferrante
Lead or lose: For the third time this year, leadership is my biggest key. It's plausible communication failed in part on the offensive line with Darius Washington out. And it's plausible communication in the back end of the defense failed in part with Shyheim Brown out. This isn't to excuse a loss to Memphis. And it's not to say Washington and Brown are performing like the All-ACC players they should be. But we've been seeking leadership from veterans and younger players. FSU will have Washington and Brown back. Justin Cryer is finding playing time and his voice as a leader. If other Seminoles develop as leaders, it's a critical step forward.
The offense needs to offense: If DJ Uiagalelei is FSU's starting quarterback on Saturday there's no viable route to him passing 30 times (or more) per game and expecting the Seminoles to win. While reviewing his game-by-game numbers, you'lll see Uiagalelei was able to do so at Clemson with relative success. But at Oregon State, he went 1-4 in games where he threw 30 or more passes (aside from four Pac-12 losses, the Beavers defeated San Diego State). The last two weeks, he has thrown 42 and 31 times in losses. This is not to say there is a straight line between quarterback passing attempts, but accuracy and building drives connect the dots to points and winning. FSU must develop a plan to run — likely by spreading defenses out and not attempting a heavy, two-TE set — and find some balance.
Prediction: Cal 24, Florida State 20
Pat Burnham
Be special: To me Cal is very similar to Memphis. The strength of the team is a tough, opportunistic defense. On offense they seem to have found their running game last week but their weakest unit on that side of the ball is its offensive line, which has been dealing with injury issues. That might mean we see FSU have success in stopping the run again. If they can make the Bears one dimensional on offense this will be a tight game, and tight games are usually won by who has the better kicking game.
FSU has the best punter in the country in Alex Mastromanno and PK Ryan Fitzgerald has been the team's most reliable playmaker on offense. Cal's place-kicker is 2 of 6 on field-goal attempts the season. Mastromanno will need to continue to flip the field to help the defense create short fields for its offense. In a close, defensive football game, average starting field position is very important and Mastromanno can have a huge impact on how that plays out.
And while FSU's offense has struggled to find the end zone, Fitzgerald's aim has been perfect this year (going 6 of 6 on field goals with three being made of over 50 yards). FSU has an advantage in the kicking game because of these two players. If they both have big days; I like FSU's chances a lot better.
Bring blocking and tackling back: I am not sure if the memo made it back to Tallahassee, but they still allow blocking and tackling in college football. It's really that simple. FSU offense has issues at every position group and every position group has issues blocking. The numbers don't lie: The Seminoles rank 133rd in rushing and that falls on the OL, TE and WR corps because they haven't opened up holes for the FSU running backs.
On defense, pursuit and tackling must be better. The film doesn't lie, there are too many guys trying to make arm and ankle tackles or trying to cause a fumble instead of securing a tackle and waiting for help to arrive. And as a team they must pursue the ball better, they need more people hustling to the ball.
Blocking and tackling have a couple of things in common, they are all about attitude, effort and want-to. If they show major improvement in these areas, they have chance to walk away with the first win of the season. That being said, I am going to have to see it to believe it.
Prediction: Cal 19, Florida State 15
Scouting report: Cal on offense, defense, special teams
Jerry Kutz
DJ Uiagalelei completed 19 of 25 passes, for 275 yards and five touchdowns against the 2023 Cal defense in a 50-40 Oregon State win. Will his experience against the Golden Bears give him confidence Saturday? Or will Cal's opportunistic secondary use prior game knowledge to prepare for FSU's likely starter?
Offensive Keys: "Unity." Mike Norvell is likely to put the keys to this game in the hands of the Seminoles' embattled quarterback. But no matter which quarterback he plays, the QB will need help from all 10 around them. Florida State cannot win a game when the offense scores 12 points. To succeed on Saturday, the offensive line will have to play better together than they have in the first three games. Can their play improve with offensive line coach Alex Atkins now back on the sidelines? Norvell challenged the receivers and tight ends to tighten up perimeter blocking and receiving this week. Will the offense respond well enough to score the 21 points it will take to win this game? Will the FSU offense string together enough plays to reduce the number of plays FSU's defense must stop Cal?
Defensive Keys: "Communication" The defensive line showed life against Memphis, holding the Tigers to 20 points, which should be good enough to win with a more-productive offense. FSU will face a more-balanced attack and a savvy quarterback capable of extending plays with his shenanigans. Will the return of Shyheim Brown at safety help communication on the back end of FSU's defense? Cal's quarterback is most effective on passes of less than 10 yards, which have given FSU's linebackers, safeties and corners trouble this year.
Special Team Keys: "Eliminate" the unforced penalties that make it harder to win.
Prediction: Florida State 21, Cal 20
Mark Salva
Here we are, another week, another mystery. What is this 2024 version of the FSU Seminoles? Well, if you are to take Bill Parcells theory to heart that you are what your record says you are, then FSU is a bad football team. NCAA stats will bear that out too. Average at best in most categories and rock bottom in some. What about the eye test? Do I really need to go there? So here we are game 4 and I personally have a modicum of hope. Mainly because I can't reconcile the fact that this program was 13-1 just a few short months ago and refuse to believe that it can be THIS bad. Of course, we all expected a drop off, just not off the edge of the cliff.
Offense:
Just play good football. Quit making it so hard. If you get a good run look/light box, then get a hat on a hat and run hard. If you get 2 on 2 on the outside because they're loading the box, then run a good route and throw a slant or a stop and throw and catch. No dead ball penalties Execute the easy stuff. You don't have to be perfect, just do the easy stuff and be competitive as opposed to incompetent. There's no excuse to not be prepared now. Everyone has 3 or 4 weeks of film to look at. If we can just do the basics maybe, just maybe, there's enough talent on this side to make some plays.
Defense: Stop the run with a 6-man box. Line up and communicate. It's what FSU wants to do most of the time. If the defense can stop the run with a 6 box (2 safeties) it means the DL is doing their job and there are numbers in the back to cover. Then handle all the motions, shifts, and cross formation releases. It's been the bane of the defense all year so you better show Cal you can handle it.
Prediction: Florida State 24, Cal 23
Curt Weiler
Start fast or try something new: Running this key back for the third straight week, but with a caveat this time. I remain optimistic that a quick start and an early lead could do wonders for the confidence of this FSU team, which hasn't felt much reason to be confident through three games this season. However, if DJ Uiagalelei again gets the start and things again start slow Saturday night, FSU simply must try a quarterback change to see if Brock Glenn can spark things. It's been discussed to death by this point that the FSU offense's struggles go beyond Uiagalelei. However, he's not helping matters and there are some things Glenn could bring (athleticism and speed, deeper knowledge of the offense) that could play better to the offensive pieces and save FSU from some of its clear issues surrounding the quarterback on this year's team.
Play smart: FSU's talent issues have certainly been jarring to witness over the first few games of the 2024 season. Perhaps even more shocking, though, has been the stunning number of "stupid" football plays the Seminoles have made this season. It took a bit of time, but Mike Norvell has certainly made smart football plays a trademark of his teams during his FSU tenure. Last week, a few ill-advised plays in big moments loomed large in FSU's close loss to Memphis. Even though Cal is undefeated, and FSU is winless, I bet this game comes down to the fourth quarter. Vegas certainly expects that with a 2.5-point spread in favor of FSU. If FSU avoids those same thoughtless mistakes and instead lets a hostile atmosphere make things tough on the Golden Bears, that could be what finally turns things in the Seminoles' favor.
Prediction: Cal 24, Florida State 17
Column: FSU nearing end of ideal window to explore QB change
Charles Fishbein
Start Fast: FSU has struggled to come out of the gate and score first. They did against Georgia Tech and since then their offense has bogged down. If they can get off to a fast start and let the Tallahassee heat get to the Cal Bears this could end up FSU's first win.
Turnovers, Turnovers, Turnovers: FSU has yet to win the turnover battle. How nice would it be for the Seminoles to get a short field early in the game because of a turnover from their defense? It would provide a spark to the offense and give them a short field.
Short Leash: FSU can't afford for DJU to get off to a slow start. If he is not showing anything positive in the first drive or two, Norvell needs to pull the plug and go with Brock Glenn. If FSU is losing in the second half, the offense is struggling and DJ is still in the game, the players and fans will lose their minds. FSU can't afford to get off to a slow start. Cal is the one team DJ has had success against. He needs to come out and play well.
Play Clean Football: FSU can't afford to make any dumb mistakes. The Seminoles have more than had their fair share of mistakes over the first three games. FSU can't get a stop and have some offsides penalty allow the other team four more downs. FSU has to play clean for them to get their first win of the season.
I have no idea how FSU is favored in this game. I watched Cal play last week and this is a team that can exploit FSU in every way on both sides of the football. The only reason I am not picking Cal to win outright is trends. I believe in trends for football teams. Cal had to go to Auburn two weeks ago. They played at home last week against San Diego State. This week they play at FSU. That is a ton of traveling for pro athletes. FSU is trying my beliefs in picking games. I would not play this game if I was in VEGAS. I like that FSU is at home and is going to be the fresher team.
Prediction: Florida State 19, Cal 16
Nick Carlisle
Get A Lead, Get Some Confidence: The first drive against Memphis was about as brutal of a start as you can have. A perfect hit produces a fumble, and you are lucky that the defense was able to keep them out of the end zone. With the defense seemingly finding its feet a bit and playing better, what could play with a lead do for the confidence of the team. The last time this Florida State team played with a lead was the opening drive against Georgia Tech. With the Bears coming across the country with a game plan that is very similar to that of Memphis systematically, if you're Florida State you have to feel like if you can control the game from the start — you'll have a good chance to win. It will take four full complete quarters of football to get in the win column, but I think it's particularly important this week for Florida State to have the lead through the first 15 minutes.
Start a youth movement: I get it. It's not an easy decision for Norvell and this staff. But at some point, if this season is going to continue down its current trajectory, you need to see what you have in some of your younger guys. It cannot be a full youth movement, as you do need some experience mixed in there to avoid some really ugly football. But in the lack of better options beyond just continuing up the creek without a paddle, see what you have. Get some guys like Juice Cryer some more experience. Let them make plays, let them make mistakes and maybe get some guys pissed they are losing their reps to underclassmen.
Prediction: Cal 24, Florida State 17
There are growing pains but FSU has made youth movement on defense
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