Third-and-Lang: On the UNC passing attack, Sam Howell and defensive numbers

The Seminoles are on the board with a win in 2021, and while it's nice to have that behind us, where Mike Norvell's bunch could make some legitimate noise is in Chapel Hill, N.C., this Saturday (3:30 p.m., ESPN).

This week's Third-and-Lang returns to an opponent scout, with former 'Nole commit Sam Howell at the center of North Carolina's story. This season hasn't been as easy for the junior, for multiple reasons.

Also in today's feature, we take a look at the Tar Heel defense and where Florida State could find some traction when it has the ball.

Let's dive in!

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After backing out of a lengthy commitment to Florida State, Sam Howell’s signing in Chapel Hill signaled that Mack Brown and the Tar Heels were to be taken seriously. Equipped with two future NFL running backs and two future NFL receivers, the Carolina offense was a nightmare to prepare for in 2020.

But with those skill players' departures and some injuries, this season has been a bit of a different story.

A lot more pressure is on Howell -- and we’re just not talking expectations. North Carolina has allowed 22 sacks this season, including 13 in the team’s last two games. Howell has absorbed countless more quarterback hits.

To best paint the picture of how shaky North Carolina’s pass-blocking has been: According to Pro Football Focus, if you compare only Florida State’s offensive line to the one in Chapel Hill, it’s the ‘Noles who have turned in three of the top four pass-blocking grades this season (including the top two).

Yikes!

Nevertheless, North Carolina’s offense can be deadly at any moment. In a breakout win over Virginia, Howell racked up over 200 aerial yards and multiple touchdowns in his first seven throws of the night.

With that in mind, let's turn to some old-school charting for insights on the Tar Heel quarterback.

* This chart helps underscore why the FSU pass rush is critical to an upset bid on Saturday. Howell's accuracy over the middle of the field and at the intermediate levels could pose serious problems for Seminole linebackers and safeties.

* Downfield throws are frequently open, but they are not consistently being hit. Howell has simply missed on a handful of shots, perhaps the result of consistent pressure in the pocket.

* Look at all of the completions at or behind the line of scrimmage. With 28 attempts at that depth, the 'Noles must be aware of motion and misdirection. These are two ways to counteract shaky offensive line play -- something folks in Tallahassee are all too familiar with.

Though the primary threat to Adam Fuller's defense is undoubtedly the Tar Heels' passing game, after last week, the defense may want to go over some quarterback run principles.

Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader ran for well over 100 yards and three touchdowns against a defense that lost contain and/or took Shrader's speed for granted. Simply put: Seminole defenders can't do that again this week, or another capable quarterback will make them pay.

This first play actually ends up being a fumble, but let's pay attention to process more than result (6:58 mark of the video above).

* Howell has a true zone-read choice to make on this play, but if he keeps it, he's got an escort.

* The running back also follows the play and blocks for Howell. That could make all the difference if FSU's eyes or alignment are out of whack.

This play is a straight QB run call, and it worked to the tune of a 32-yard gain against Duke (9:44 mark of the video above).

* The inside receivers run simple outs and round them off at the 30-yard line.

* The outside receivers stay wide.

* The linemen use defenders' first moves against them to create a gap up the middle.

* With the clear-out complete, the running back is one-on-one with the linebacker, leading the way for Howell.

Again, though the Tar Heels' pass game may be the primary concern, last week's gaffes from the Seminoles are enough to make this writer think North Carolina will see how much it can get from deploying Howell on the ground. One good note for FSU: Howell isn't the best at avoiding contact.

* North Carolina's ability to stop the run has outpaced its pass defense, but according to PFF, the Tar Heels rank in the middle of the pack nationally; 55th in overall grade. FSU ranks 128th in run-blocking.

* Coverage-wise, UNC ranks 92nd nationally according to PFF. Florida State, for reference, ranks 85th. Perhaps a battle of weakness against weakness as the FSU receivers look to get something going?

* In a definite battle of weaknesses, the Tar Heel pass rush rates 94th nationally, per PFF.

* Though this final note isn't an advanced stat, it is certainly of note. If Mike Norvell has the version of Jordan Travis we saw last week, in terms of speed and explosiveness, here is a ray of hope: Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims, who did not start the Jackets-Tar Heels matchup, ran for 128 yards and three touchdowns on just 10 carries. This is certainly something Mack Brown will work on fixing ahead of Saturday.

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