Third-and-Lang: Scouting Clemson's woeful, but potential-laden, offense

In preparation for this week’s feature, I asked myself a simple question:

When is the last time I’ve been *this* excited for a Seminole football game that was not the season opener?

The unscientific answer is it’s been a good, long, arduous while.

We have a lot to chew on this week with the 2021 Clemson Tigers. Without qualifiers or caveats, Clemson is a disappointment this season. One of the biggest disappointments in the sport.

But that does not mean the Tigers are without weapons. Let’s start there this week. (NOTE: A second piece on the keys for the FSU offense will be coming soon.)

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Background:

At 6-foot-4, Ross was a phenom from the word “go” in 2018, hauling in 46 catches for 1,000 yards. Things have slowed since then -- partly due to a congenital neck and spine issue that sidelined him for the 2020 season -- but the potential to go make plays is still very much there.

PFF says...

*Pro Football Focus’ grades indicate Ross has regressed since 2018, when his receiving grade was a sparkling 91.2 overall. 2019 saw his grade drop to 79.0 before plummeting to 69.3 this season.

*Ross’ average depth-of-target (how far downfield he is for throws his way) has declined from 12.9 yards downfield to 10.4 this season. This is not altogether surprising, however, given the Clemson offensive line/quarterback issues.

*For a team that has dropped passes all season long, PFF tags Ross with just one drop this season -- a deep middle shot play against Syracuse.

Target Chart:

Background:

A junior hailing from Folsom, Calif., the 6-foot-3 Ngata was one of Clemson’s few bright spots in its 10-3 loss to Georgia. Ngata caught six passes for 110 yards in that season opener, and he has the blend of body control and size to go make plays in contested situations. Ngata is set to return this weekend after missing the Pitt game due to COVID protocol.

PFF Says...

*Ngata has dropped three passes in his last two games, his first miscues in that area since 2019. At his size, Ngata lines up out wide for over 97 percent of Clemson’s snaps.

*It would be wise to get Ngata on the ground, as the junior has amassed 158 yards after the catch this season (44.9-percent of his total receiving yardage).

*One error in the chart below is Ngata's "Outside Right" numbers in the 20+ yard range should read "3/4" for 72 yards and a touchdown. His acrobatic catch at Syracuse accounts for the score.

Target Chart:

Background:

According to Rivals, Shipley was the top-rated player in North Carolina in the 2021 recruiting class. The 5-foot-11 running back is a one-cut runner with serious burst through the line of scrimmage. Had he not twice been eaten by the turf monster at Heinz Field, Shipley was in line for a monster performance. The absence of Kobe Pace from the Clemson lineup (COVID) means Shipley will be relied upon more heavily.

PFF Says...

*In seven targets this year out of the backfield, Shipley has dropped two balls (including a likely long touchdown at Pitt).

*Seven of Shipley’s 54 runs this season have gone for at least 10 yards; 26 of his 54 runs have come up the middle (14 to the A-gap on the center’s left shoulder, 12 to the A-gap on the center's right shoulder).

*We won’t have a full note on third-string running back Phil Mafah, but if current trends hold, Mafah’s runs are much more likely to bounce outside than Shipley's.

Background:

The toast of the rising star articles in the 2021 preseason, Uiagalelei has been the subject of Clemson fans' ire this season. A debate rages on about the sophomore's willingness to use his 6-foot-4, 250-pound frame as a runner. Independent of that argument, Clemson's woes in pass protection -- namely up the middle -- have often appeared to speed up Uiagalelei's internal clock, causing negative plays.

PFF Says...

*Uiagalelei has hardly lived up to the promise of his 2020 appearances for an injured Trevor Lawrence. Uiagalelei's season grade in 2020 was over a 71.1 overall; this season he has eclipsed a 70.0 grade in just one performance (Syracuse).

*Clemson's offensive line has given up a quarterback pressure on 65 of 229 Uiagalelei dropbacks, just under 30 percent of all passing plays.

*If the opposition generates a pressure on Uiagalelei, that pressure turns into a sack 20 percent of the time. In other words, get pressure on D.J., and it's a 1-in-5 chance he goes down.

*Clemson runs play-action on 30.5 percent of drop-backs and screens on 17.9 percent of drop-backs.

*Clemson receivers have been credited with 14 drops this season.

*When pressured, Uiagaleilei's PFF grade plummets 22 points. When blitzed, it drops 13 points.

Pass Depth Chart:

Have a headache yet?

Despite the clear delineation of Uiagalelei's numbers against a blitz, the Seminoles' plan against North Carolina is probably a good bet to try at first in Death Valley. As a refresher, Adam Fuller called a defense that kept most everything in front of his players' eyes and one that could live with Sam Howell making some plays with his legs.

Given the real possibility that FSU's front-four can generate enough pressure without any help, it seems reasonable to start there and make Clemson prove that it can protect Uiagalelei. If it works, the secondary won't have to win as many one-on-ones as, say, Pitt asks of its defensive backs.

This plan would still hold true if Taisun Phommachanh is in at quarterback. Make Phommachanh prove his mettle on the ground before allowing Clemson's weapons to get one-on-one with the Seminole secondary.

What a fun game to cover!

Note: More to come in a Third-and-Lang on the challenge ahead for the FSU offense and other general observations.

Contact director of original content Tom Lang at Tom@warchant.com and follow him on twitter @_TomLang.

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Talk about this story with other Florida State football fans in the Tribal Council