This is a tough week to have the flu running through the Florida State campus.
Though the N.C. State resume from 2021 suggests the Wolfpack are a significantly worse team when they hit the road, Florida State will be tested by a physical bunch that doesn't typically give anything away to the opposition; the 'Pack have committed only six turnovers all season.
Today's feature looks at how Dave Doeren's Wolfpack offense attack defenses, beginning with a look through the lens of their quarterback, Devin Leary.
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Devin Leary, Quarterback
Don’t expect much in the way of gifts from the redshirt sophomore Leary. This year, his 21-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 66.1-percent completion rate indicates what game tape shows: Leary hits on high-percentage plays and low-danger deep shots.
Watching the Wolfpack offense against Clemson and Louisville, a few things stand out about Leary’s game (and, by extension, the passing offense at N.C. State):
*Standing at 6-foot-1 and 212 pounds, Leary executes most passing concepts for both man and zone coverage with efficiency. Since FSU hasn’t shown an ability to run strict zone all that well, against man, the Wolfpack often break out quick slants (with RPO elements to lure linebackers and safeties) and rub-routes.
*Here is one goal-line rub-route concept to free up slot receiver Thayer Thomas, executed in a big spot for a touchdown against Clemson.
*The New Jersey-native is very capable of going through his progressions and displays enough arm strength and touch to execute just about any throw necessary in college. One advanced element that shows up this year: Leary has good timing to the back-shoulder with receiver Emeka Emezie, a target in this offense since 2017.
*In a deviation from much of the Seminoles’ ACC schedule so far, Leary is not a runner and has a hard time extending plays if the rush is bearing down on him. N.C. State did, however, successfully dial up a quarterback draw for a 17-yard touchdown against Miami (most likely due to pure surprise, it took a minute to get to paydirt).
*Against pressure, Leary's numbers plummet. His completion percentage when kept clean is 71.4 percent for the year. But against pressure, that figure drops to 46.0 percent.
*Do not confuse the above figures with the blitz. The Wolfpack have been stout at holding up against extra pressures in 2021, as Leary's completion percentage when not blitzed (66.5) essentially mirrors his numbers when extra rushers are sent (64.8). Translation: the FSU front-four will again be critical to getting off the field.
Passing chart: Devin Leary
*Note the efficiency around the line of scrimmage and how Leary has made the most of his deep shots down the sidelines.
*Both interceptions have come where and when an offensive coordinator would want them; deep down the middle of the field and in either a low-leverage situation (against a hapless USF) or a desperate moment (final play in a loss at Mississippi State).
*It has been 211 attempts since Leary’s last interception.
Ground attack and other observations
*After amassing over 740 yards in his first two seasons, it's not surprising that super sophomore Zonovan "Bam" Knight once again leads the Wolfpack in rushing. But what might be surprising is that Knight has put together back-to-back rough performances against Miami and Louisville. In those two games, Knight has rushed 19 times for 39 yards, barely better than two yards per clip.
*Junior running back Ricky Person Jr. has turned in at least 50 scrimmage yards in every game since the Wolfpack's 27-21 overtime win against Clemson on Sept. 25. Person Jr. gains yardage in chunks, turning in a run for 17 yards or more in all but one game this season and a reception of 10-or-more yards in five different games.
*If you are worried about how N.C. State isolates running backs against linebackers, here is a nifty screen play the 'Pack dialed up last week. (You know it's a screen play given how one interior offensive lineman climbs way beyond the line up scrimmage and how the receivers block).
*If you watched the Wolfpack-Miami game, you may remember a couple of high profile drops from No. 88 Devon Carter. Well, Carter is not alone. Both he and Emezie have dropped five passes this season, tied for the team lead. In all, Wolfpack receivers have dropped 16 passes, per Pro Football Focus.
*Though Emezie (42) and Thomas (37) far outpace Carter (23) in catches this season, targets tell a bit of a different story. Emezie predictably leads the team in the target category with 59, but Thomas and Carter have seen an equal amount (43) of footballs thrown their way.
*If you're looking for a pure shot play/deep threat candidate, No. 85 Anthony Smith is that player. According to PFF, his average depth of target this season is an eye-popping 34.1 yards down the field. True to form, in three targets against Clemson and Miami, Smith saw the ball come his way an average of over 42 yards downfield.
Final thoughts: Balanced, with a side of relentless
In studying play-by-play charts and watching on replay, N.C. State’s offense can be tough to pin down in terms of run/pass tendencies. But if a defense is having a problem stopping one facet of the game, the Wolfpack are not above repetitive calls.
In a second quarter drive against Clemson, the ‘Pack dialed up seven straight runs before missing a field goal. A scoring drive against Miami featured passes in six of seven plays (the seventh was a Leary run). A key for Florida State on Saturday is when N.C. State hits on a play type or concept once or twice, the ‘Noles will have to prove they have an answer.
*ALSO SEE: FSU Football Matchup Analysis & Prediction: 'Noles vs No. 19 N.C. State
Contact director of original content Tom Lang at Tom@warchant.com and follow him on twitter @_TomLang.
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