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Published Nov 3, 2024
Three storylines as FSU hoops opens 2024-25 season
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Bob Ferrante  •  TheOsceola
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Florida State’s best teams under Leonard Hamilton have been long and athletic, committed to defense and deep from players 1-10. The Seminoles have also valued familiarity with the scheme built up through years in Tallahassee.

The 2024-25 team features Jamir Watkins and includes three more returning players in Taylor Bol Bowen, Chandler Jackson and Waka Mbatch. But pulling together so many new pieces takes more than just an offseason and two exhibition games to get a clear picture of the Seminoles.

“I think we’ve shown signs that we’re improving, a little bit of a view of what we could be,” Hamilton said after FSU’s second exhibition. “There are obviously some areas of our game that we all need to continue to work on. … We had some moments where we flew around defensively, got some deflections. Got what we call kill stops.

“We still have a lot of growth to do. The challenge that we have is trying to develop the chemistry while playing a lot of people.”

FSU was picked to finish 15th in the expanded 18-team ACC, ahead of No. 16 Cal, No. 17 Stanford and No. 18 Boston College. There’s reason for cautious optimism that FSU could be better than 15th but the Seminoles are viewed as a .500 team in the preseason projections.

With FSU’s season beginning on Monday against Northern Kentucky (7 p.m. on ACC Network Extra), here’s a look at three storylines for the Seminoles in 2024-25.

November, December are the time to stack wins

Florida State will play one of the softest non-conference schedules in recent memory. The Seminoles open with KenPom’s No. 162 (Northern Kentucky) before playing No. 236 (Rice) and No. 205 (Tarleton State). If you’ve never heard of the last one, well, it’s a school in Stephenville, Texas, and their nickname is the Texans.

FSU will play eight non-conference teams that are ranked 100th or lower by KenPom. Even for the Seminoles, who open up at 90th, the metrics would lean heavily toward FSU to win all eight. Losses to sub-100 teams are detrimental to any team's resume, even if in FSU's case the March outlook is the potential of an NIT bid.

To get to .500, the Seminoles will need to do stack wins and battle against Florida in Tallahassee and at LSU. The ACC schedule is daunting at the top but there's also a considerable middle tier.

FSU will face this slate beginning on Feb. 12 – Wake Forest, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, North Carolina and Duke before closing with Virginia and SMU. In the final 10 games, KenPom is projecting a 3-7 finish.

The ACC will feature projected heavyweights like Duke, North Carolina, Clemson and Wake Forest. Is FSU in that massive middle tier? And if so, where in that middle tier?

Freshmen to build around

The best-case scenario for FSU in the non-conference schedule is to give quality minutes to freshmen Daquan Davis, Alier Maluk and A.J. Swinton. If Hamilton truly wants to extend the bench to 10, and it’s a debate after two exhibitions the Seminoles can do that, he will have to do something he rarely does and that’s play a freshman point guard.

Davis was a Rivals four-star prospect, with FSU winning a tight battle with Georgia Tech for the Overtime Elite prospect. The 6-foot-1, 175-pound Davis has a smooth jump shot and showed in the second exhibition game that he could drive the lane and hit pull-up jumpers.

"Daquan has a unique skill to him," Hamilton said. "He’s unbelievably quick. His motor is always running. He’s going to make something happen. It’s not always good. But for the most part, he understands his system, he understands exactly what we’re doing defensively. He picks up things real fast."

The 7-foot, 218-pound Maluk reclassified to graduate early and play at FSU. While not listed as a center, he is the tallest player on the roster. Maluk can alter or block shots, but he isn’t going to be a rebounder early in his career. He did not play in the second exhibition.

Swinton has a good frame at 6-6 and 200 pounds. He had five points (on 2 of 8 shooting) with six rebounds in the second exhibition and should be in the mix. Christian Nitu had nine points and four rebounds in 23 minutes in FSU’s second exhibition, and Anastasios Rozakeas had five points and three rebounds in 17 minutes.

It doesn't feel plausible for Hamilton to play Davis, Maluk, Swinton, Nitu and Rozakeas in various rotations. That's a lot of freshmen. Bet on Davis seeing early minutes and the coaches will need to determine how far along the others are in their development.

How much FSU needs the freshmen (like Davis) will also hinge on the status of Chandler Jackson, who did not play in the second exhibition game. FSU has also battled injuries the last few years, so freshmen who don't play as much in November or December could be used more in January and February.

There needs to be more than Watkins - how much is there?

Jamir Watkins is the reason for optimism this season. Without him, well, no FSU fan wants to think about the outlook for this team.

Watkins led FSU in scoring (15.6 points) and rebounding (6.0), and he has made improving his jumper a focal point in the offseason. Judging by the early returns in FSU’s exhibition games, it’s going to take time.

But Watkins’ value is in his ability to take over games, whether it’s creating his own shot by driving to the basket, rebounding and starting a fast break, or passing. Foul him? He's a 79.5-percent shooter at the line. His vision and passing are already next level. Testing the NBA waters helped him understand what work is ahead, too.

"I would say it gave me a boost coming back to college because I felt like I'm a little more advanced and I seen what it takes to be at that level," Watkins said. "So just coming back just trying to pour it into my young guys and help them because I know that's where they want to be at the end of the day."

FSU’s main issue going into the year is the uncertainty over who can be a consistent complement to Watkins. And who will be FSU’s No. 2 scorer on any given night could change based on the scouting report, the transfers’ adjustment to FSU’s scheme and freshmen who earn playing time.

Bowen could take a step forward from his limited minutes (11 per game) as a freshmen, when he averaged 3.1 points and 2.6 rebounds. But he's slender at 6-10 and 195 pounds, so can he handle the physicality of ACC play?

The Seminoles need Malique Ewin to be a physical presence inside, a rebounder and someone who can deliver 10 points and six rebounds (on average). They need Justin Thomas or Bostyn Holt to be rotational players, willing defenders who can contribute on the offensive end. Holt played some point with Jackson out in the second exhibition.

FSU didn’t hit big in the portal. But if you think about Watkins jumping into the portal as well as testing the NBA waters, FSU might have landed one of the nation’s top portal prospects by retaining him. Now we see how Watkins, a quiet leader, can help make others around him more comfortable and perhaps better as opponents focus in on stopping the preseason second-team All-ACC selection.

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