Three things to watch as FSU plays its final five regular-season games
With five games left to go in the regular season for FSU men’s basketball, let’s take a look at three storylines as the Seminoles (14-12, 8-7 ACC) travel to play at Clemson on Saturday (7:45 p.m. on CW Network).
Hamilton's doghouse
Leonard Hamilton made a stunning admission when we asked about player leadership following the loss at Louisville on Feb. 3, essentially saying most of the players were quiet and not assertive enough. In the absence of that leadership, Hamilton has gone with an alternative: a doghouse.
It’s clear that Chandler Jackson lived in it earlier this month, not playing in two games due to a coach’s decision. Jackson has emerged to offer up 17 points in the loss to Virginia and score 19 points (with three steals) in the win over BC.
It’s clear that Primo Spears is living in the doghouse now, missing the BC game and a chunk of the Duke game. Will we see Spears return at Clemson? That remains to be determined as Hamilton is famously tight-lipped about his personnel decisions.
But it is striking that Hamilton has needed to use the doghouse method twice and this deep into the season. It shows his frustration with the players and the lack of a leader along the lines of a Malik Osborne or Trent Forrest is glaring.
Hamilton wins games with a deep rotation, often arguing his players 1 through 10 are better than the opposing coaches’ 1-10. And because of the style of defense Hamilton demands, he has often said the sweet spot is about 25 minutes per game for a player.
Is it sustainable for five more games, meaning that Jamir Watkins, Jalen Warley and Jackson would need to log 30+ minutes each game — and avoid foul trouble — for FSU to win games? Maybe. But a roll of the dice.
Against BC, Hamilton essentially played just eight and gave Tom House and De’Ante Green only three minutes apiece. FSU's depth looks different if Spears remains in the doghouse and/or if Darin Green Jr.’s shoulder injury keeps him out any length of time.
Jamir Watkins' consistency
Jamir Watkins has scored in double figures in 12 straight games, which by itself is pretty impressive. He is averaging 15.3 points during that stretch, too. Again, for a team that has been up and down, it's saying something that Watkins has been this productive each game.
Two questions come to mind with Watkins: Where would FSU be without him? And perhaps because of that, is he worthy of consideration as a first-team All-ACC pick?
The case for Watkins is easy as he leads FSU in scoring (14.8) and rebounding (5.7), averages 1.7 steals and has easily been FSU’s most consistent player. He has played at the caliber of an All-ACC selection in January and February.
Courtesy of CBBAnalytics, here's a good look at how Watkins performs at various spots on the floor. Note the damage he makes in traffic and his success taking 3-pointers from the wings.
Before we get into names for selection, let’s clarify that the postseason All-ACC teams are picked by two media members in each of the league’s markets. So the voting is less Carolina-centric but can definitely be swayed by those who live in North Carolina and cover Duke, UNC, NC State and Wake on the regular.
It’s easy to pencil in UNC’s RJ Davis and Clemson’s PJ Hall as first-team picks right now. Davis is a prolific scorer (21.3 points). Hall has scored in double figures in every game this season while averaging 7.1 rebounds. If you’re fond of players who average a double-double, UNC’s Armando Bacot does just that (14.6 points, 10.3 rebounds) and Miami’s Norchad Omier (17.5 points, 9.8 rebounds) nearly does, too.
There are almost too many names to list, but here is a chart with the ACC’s scoring leaders. Watkins appears to stack up favorably and is worthy of discussion when voters sit down to do their ballots.
Projecting FSU's final five games
Despite the inconsistency, lack of leadership and roster-building flaws, FSU could (realistically) go 3-2 or (optimistically) 4-1 in its remaining five games. Following the game at Clemson, NC State visits on Tuesday, followed by road games against Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. FSU finishes with Miami in a home game on March 9.
Clemson is the worst matchup of the bunch. The Tigers have a deep and experienced frontcourt that hammered the Seminoles on the boards 39-22 on Jan. 20, handing FSU a 78-67 loss. Even if you chalk this up as a likely loss given the Seminoles haven’t rebounded well, the next four games aren’t as challenging.
NC State and Pittsburgh are both 8-7 in league play, tied with FSU, while Miami has fallen on hard times and Georgia Tech is 4-12 (not quite Louisville bad but bad ... yet Louisville defeated FSU). KenPom’s metrics have FSU finishing 3-2, with losses at Clemson and Pittsburgh.
In what’s perhaps a wild example of how everyone in the ACC can be beaten, Pitt stunned Duke (on the road) to start a stretch of seven wins in eight games. And then the Panthers were drilled at Wake Forest 91-58 earlier this week.
NC State can claim wins over Virginia and Clemson, yet they have lost six of their last nine. Miami has dropped five straight going into its game on Saturday vs. Georgia Tech, which has lost five of six. But don’t forget the Yellow Jackets stung UNC at home on Jan. 30.
All of this makes projecting tough. But it's fair to say FSU's remaining games are winnable. How FSU finishes may not change how we view them, but there is the potential to have 18 wins going into the ACC Tournament. And what might have been if only FSU had taken care of business against Lipscomb (ranked 167th in KenPom) and Louisville (198).
We celebrate a 20-win season as a significant marker, something we just did with the FSU women’s team on Thursday night. But it’s also fair to point out how the opportunity was there for the Seminoles to hit 20 even with all of the flaws.
