Warchant 3-2-1: The fourth-down call, defensive busts, and looking ahead

1 -- Digging deeper inside Norvell's late fourth-down call

Mike Norvell is not afraid to go for it on fourth down. He has made that abundantly clear during his first 18 games as Florida State's head football coach.

Sometimes, he follows the analytics, which often suggest a team's chances of success improve when it goes for it on fourth-and-short, as opposed to punting the ball back to the opponent.

Sometimes, he uses factors such as momentum and game flow to make his decision.

On Saturday against N.C. State, Norvell likely tapped into both when he decided to go for it on fourth-and-4 with just over eight minutes remaining at his own 43-yard line.

The Seminoles were trailing 21-14 at the time, and they had already driven 42 yards after taking possession at their 1-yard line. Instead of trying to pin the Wolfpack back in their own territory, Norvell opted to go for it, thinking this might be the Seminoles' best chance to tie the game.

It didn't work.

Quarterback McKenzie Milton, who was playing in place if the ill Jordan Travis, attempted to hit senior receiver Ontaria "Pokey" Wilson just past the first-down marker, but Wilson couldn't come down with the contested catch.

N.C. State took possession and three plays later hit a screen pass that would go for 43 yards and a touchdown to effectively clinch the win.

When asked afterward about his decision, Norvell said the biggest factor was that he didn't know if his team would get a better opportunity in the final eight minutes than the one they had right then, near midfield.

"It became really a possessions game," Norvell said. "The fourth-and-4, you start looking at possessions and opportunities."

Judging by the outrage on social media and our Warchant Tribal Council, many fans believe the decision should have been a no-brainer to punt. With the idea being that the Seminoles could have pinned N.C. State deep, forced a three-and-out and gotten the ball back near midfield again with a fresh set of downs.

That was certainly a possibility. But was it a probability?

Let's flesh it out.

On the drive before Norvell went for it on fourth down, the N.C. State offense took possession at its own 20-yard line with 14:19 to go. The Wolfpack did not go 3-and-out on that possession; they picked up two first downs and ate up 3:58 of game clock.